增長不是萬能的？

增長不是萬能的？

巴西、土耳其、俄羅斯、印尼、印度、南非，這些地處天南海北的國家有什么共同點？一是它們都是經(jīng)濟發(fā)展勢頭不錯的新興市場，二是它們最近都爆發(fā)過大規(guī)?？棺h示威。引發(fā)抗議的導(dǎo)火索五花八門，但背后的原因倒也殊途同歸。FT新興市場編輯Stefan Wagsty認(rèn)為，它們給全世界上了一課：經(jīng)濟發(fā)展不萬能。

測試中可能遇到的詞匯和知識：

grip 緊握，柄

pluralism 多元主義

apartheid 南非的種族隔離

corollary [k?'r?l?r?] 推論，必然結(jié)果

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Protesters find rising wealth no guarantee of liberalisation

By Stefan Wagstyl in London

Veteran administrations in emerging markets resist reforms

* * *

The world’s emerging markets are in the grip of an unprecedented wave of public protest. Today it is Brazil. A few days ago it was Turkey. Before that there were Russia, Indonesia, India and South Africa, all of which have seen big demonstrations in the past year. And before that there was Egypt and the Arab spring.

It is dangerous to draw parallels between countries with very different political, economic and social conditions. While Russian president Vladimir Putin was elected last year to a third term in office, his authoritarian regime has little of the democratic pluralism that characterises Brazil, Turkey, India and even Indonesia.

Islamist forces, which have played a key role in Turkey and the Middle East, are negligible elsewhere. South Africa is unique in suffering the poisonous legacy of apartheid. In Brazil and Russia, official corruption has been a big target of the demonstrators. In India and Indonesia, it has been fuel subsidy cuts.

But the current wave of public anger is more than a coincidence. First, protest breeds protest. As with the European demonstrations of the late 1960s and the anti-Communist revolt in eastern Europe in 1989-91, the fervour of protest can spread rapidly across borders. The authorities can move very fast to suppress this information – as they did in the Gulf states when the Arab spring protests hit Egypt in late 2010. But mobile communications and the internet have given demonstrators the advantage.

Next, the demonstrations take place against a background of global economic difficulties. While emerging markets as a whole are growing much faster than the developed world, they too face financial challenges – from youth unemployment in the Arab countries to poor public services in Brazil and a subsidy-boosted budget deficit in India. A handful of oil-rich states led by Saudi Arabia can suppress protests with lavish public spending: but other administrations have to make compromises.

Also, quite a few protest-hit countries are run by veteran administrations that may look outdated to younger people. Mr Putin has run Russia since 2000, and Recep Tayyip Erdogan Turkey since 2002. In Brazil, the Workers’ party has been at the helm since 2003, first under Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and now under his handpicked successor, Dilma Rousseff. In South Africa, the African National Congress has been in charge since 1994. In India, the ruling Congress party has been in power for all but nine years since independence. In Egypt, the 2011 protests overthrew a military-backed regime that had ruled since the 1950s.

Finally, look at income levels. India and Indonesia are fairly poor countries with annual per capita incomes of about $4,000 and $5,000 respectively, on a purchasing power parity basis. No surprise that the protesters have focused on a basic economic issue – fuel costs.

In South Africa, Brazil, Turkey and Russia, incomes range from about $12,000-$18,000, the upper end of the range for emerging economies, and the level at which the rising middle classes begin to make more wide-ranging demands. With their basic needs mostly satisfied, they begin to look more widely and press for everything from better public services (Brazil), social freedoms (Turkey), political participation (Russia) and an end to police brutality (South Africa). Taken together, these aims amount to a call for the development of fully-functioning democracies, with the rule of law, financial transparency and respect for minority rights.

History suggests that these demands are a normal corollary of economic development – during and after the industrial revolution, British, French and US elites were gradually forced to share power (very gradually, some might say).

Of the few emerging markets to have achieved rich-world status since the second world war only two are sizeable economies – South Korea and Taiwan (the others are Singapore and Hong Kong). In the 1980s, authoritarian regimes in South Korea and Taiwan were driven by public protests to liberalise their grip on power. Intriguingly, their income levels then were roughly comparable to today’s South Africa, Brazil, Turkey and Russia.

But history does not determine the future. Commodity-rich countries such as Russia may succeed in resisting political liberalisation – as some Gulf states have managed to do. And then there is China: the Communist party has so far retained its grip on power, but average incomes ($9,000 last year) are fast-approaching the level at which the middle classes want more than just money.

The supporters of liberalisation – social, economic and political – cannot take anything for granted. But they may have time on their side.

請根據(jù)你所讀到的文章內(nèi)容，完成以下自測題目：

1. Among these countries, which one is the poorest, in terms of per capita income?

a. Russia.

b. Brazil.

c. Turkey.

d. India.

2. What do we know about these countries?

a. South Africa is unique in religious conflict.

b. Russians often go to streets complaining about infrastructure.

c. Indian and Indonesian governments are being choked by fuel subsidies.

d. Brazil's protests are triggered by the poor performance of their national football team.

3. Two sizeable emerging economies have entered the developed world after the second world war, who are they?

a. South Korea and Taiwan.

b. Singapore and Hong Kong.

c. Brazil and Argentina.

d. China and Russia.

4. Why do citizens of these countries "demand more"?

a. Youth unemployment is quite a problem.

b. Mobile communications and the internet make people more irritable.

c. The world economy is slowing down, especially for these countries.

d. They just want more things other than money as they get richer.

[1] 答案d. India.

解釋：D是正確答案。ABC三國的人均收入range from about $12,000-$18,000.而印度和印尼分別只有4000和5000美元。

[2] 答案c. Indian and Indonesian governments are being choked by fuel subsidies.

解釋：有宗教色彩的沖突發(fā)生在土耳其，世俗派不滿埃爾多安政府的伊斯蘭化政策。南非是唯一一個搞過種族隔離并深受其害的國家。吐槽公共服務(wù)和公共設(shè)施的是巴西人，他們的抗議確實跟聯(lián)合會杯和世界杯足球賽有關(guān)，但導(dǎo)火索是公交票價上漲，激發(fā)了他們的長期不滿。

[3] 答案a. South Korea and Taiwan.

解釋：A是正確答案。B只是城市，C是典型的陷入所謂“中等收入陷阱”的國家。

[4] 答案d. They just want more things other than money as they get richer.

解釋：這一說法出現(xiàn)了兩次，一次是With their basic needs mostly satisfied, they begin to look more widely and press for everything···從更好的公共服務(wù)，到社會自由，到政治參與，再到結(jié)束警察暴力等等。第二次是History suggests that these demands are a normal corollary of economic development.