金融時報:燃料補貼的末日？

燃料補貼的末日？

巴西和印度兩個新興市場大國都面對著巨額的燃料補貼的問題。對曾任巴西石油公司董事長的總統(tǒng)羅塞夫來說，這個問題對連任影響不小。印度政府已經(jīng)做出了決定，接下來看巴西的了。

測試中可能遇到的詞匯和知識：

A tale of two subsidies 這個標題取自狄更斯的小說《雙城記》A Tale of Two Cities

Petrobras （國有的）巴西石油公司

diesel ['di?z(?)l] 柴油

canny ['kæn?] 精明

R 巴西雷亞爾(Real)

Rs 印度盧比(Rupees)

India/Brazil: A tale of two subsidies （338 words）

FT Lex, October 20, 2014

“The value of Petrobras… is a growing value. Everyone who has invested in Petrobras will make lots of money.”

President Dilma Rousseff of Brazil was in rousing form when defending the country's state-owned oil company in an election debate on Sunday. She once chaired its board. But the good news was slightly marred by Ms Rousseff's admission that some may have made their Petrobras money by siphoning it off the company directly.

And if this did not make Petrobras' minority shareholders feel glum about destruction of value, they could also have looked at India this weekend for a contrast. At the stroke of midnight Delhi time on Saturday, the market took over setting diesel prices after the government ended subsidies. These were a burden on the state and made profits less predictable at refiners (many themselves state-owned).

Petrobras' R$225bn (or $102bn) market value dwarfs any of these companies – even India's state owned ONGC, which like Petrobras is both a producer and a refiner. But the Brazilian government requires Petrobras to apply its own fuel subsidies. Prices are kept under control to stop inflation rising further. Between 2011 – a year after a $70bn equity offering to foreign investors – and 2013, Petrobras' net income was R$78bn overall. But its refining division, partly because of the subsidies, posted net losses of R$51bn. And this year the Brazilian real's weakening against the US dollar may make importing fuel dearer.

The Indian government has been canny. It picked the fall in oil prices to deregulate. The first breath of market forces was thus a Rs3.4 price cut per litre. The drop in crude prices is the equivalent of Rs5, HSBC thinks, so refiners could either pass more on to consumers or increase margins. Such opportunities do not often present themselves. The case for reforming Petrobras' pricing must get through an election first. It trades 8 times forecast 2015 earnings. To quote Ms Rousseff, there is muito dinheiro(a lot of money) at stake.

請根據(jù)你所讀到的文章內(nèi)容，完成以下自測題目：

1.What is the Lex's stand on fuel subsidies?

A.For.

B.Against.

C.Not clear.

答案(1)

2.Indian government ended what exactly?

A.All kinds of fiscal subsidies.

B.State ownership of oil companies.

C.Subsidies on diesel.

答案(2)

3.Petrobras has a 2013 profit of Real 78bn, a market value of 225bn, which is 8 times forcast 2015 earnings.

Is the company's profits going up or down?

A.Going up.

B.Going down.

C.More or less the same.

答案(3)

* * *

(1)答案：B.Against.

解釋：FT一直很反對這種帶來浪費和短缺的政策。文中有多處表現(xiàn)出希望巴西和印度政府取消這項政策。 These were a burden on the state and made profits less predictable at refiners.

(2)答案：C.Subsidies on diesel.

解釋：隨著補貼的終止，市場接管了柴油市場的定價。此前的補貼（因為取決于政治而非經(jīng)濟因素）讓煉油廠的利潤很不穩(wěn)定。

(3)答案：B.Going down.

解釋：簡單計算下，目前的巴西石油公司股價是2013年利潤的3倍，是2015年利潤的8倍。因此它的利潤在這兩年是大幅下降的，因為最近的世界油價一直在跌。——所以機智的印度政府選在這個時機取消柴油補貼，這是文中的第一個重要線索；第二個線索是，羅塞夫受到不小的壓力，“這事關一大筆錢”，這顯然不是公司利潤上漲時的態(tài)勢。