金融時(shí)報(bào):“大衛(wèi)·斯托克曼現(xiàn)象”

“大衛(wèi)·斯托克曼現(xiàn)象”

曾擔(dān)任里根政府預(yù)算辦公室主任的前眾議員大衛(wèi)·斯托克曼，是美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)史上的重要人物。他曾堅(jiān)決支持里根政府的大減稅，但在離開(kāi)政府后，他開(kāi)始抨擊里根和后來(lái)共和黨人的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策。這是什么情況？最近，他出了本長(zhǎng)篇巨幅而晦澀的書(shū)，批判主流經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)界和政界，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家布魯斯·巴特利特講述了“斯托克曼現(xiàn)象”的前因后果。

測(cè)試中可能遇到的詞匯和知識(shí)：

David Stockman 斯托克曼在1977-81年出任密歇根州聯(lián)邦眾議員，隨后在里根的第一個(gè)任期（81-85）擔(dān)任預(yù)算辦公室主任。他以批評(píng)共和黨只顧減稅不管赤字著稱，宣稱自己投資黃金、罐頭、礦泉水、電池等“所有不能被伯南克毀掉的東西”

whiz-kid 神童

Rep[rep] n.眾議員(Representative)名字前的正式頭銜。一般通俗稱呼Congressman/Congresswoman.

adjunct ['æd???(k)t] n.附屬物，助手

Rep Jack Kemp 杰克·肯普眾議員，因發(fā)起通過(guò)了減稅高達(dá)30%的肯普-羅斯減稅法案而著稱（signature issue）。在1996年他作為鮑勃·多爾的搭檔出任共和黨副總統(tǒng)候選人，最終他們輸給克林頓-戈?duì)柦M合。本文作者Bartlett曾擔(dān)任肯普的幕僚。

bedevil [b?'dev(?)l] v.使痛苦，使苦惱

screed [skri?d] n.冗長(zhǎng)的文章

crank [kræ?k] n.奇想

fiat money 以政府信用為擔(dān)保的，不以金銀為基礎(chǔ)的法定貨幣

blurb [bl??b] v.大肆宣傳

tenet ['ten?t] n.原則，信仰

Austrian economics 奧地利學(xué)派經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)

garner ['gɑ?n?] v.把…收入谷倉(cāng)

The David Stockman phenomenon (852 words)

by Bruce Bartlett

This week, a new book, “The Great Deformation: The Corruption of Capitalism in America” by David A. Stockman was published in the US, garnering a great deal of notice. The attention is due not so much to the 742-page book, which is dense with discussions of obscure financial topics, but because of the author, who once played a critical role in American economic policy.

Mr Stockman was the proverbial whiz-kid of American politics. After college, he worked on the staff of the US Congress for Rep John B. Anderson of Illinois, the third-ranking Republican in the House of Representatives. In 1976, Mr Stockman returned to his native state of Michigan to run for Congress himself, winning elective office on his first try.

I first met David in early 1977 while working for Rep Jack Kemp of New York, whom Mr Stockman greatly admired. In fact, his office was like an adjunct of Kemp’s. The two staffs working closely together on a variety of issues. Mr Stockman was a strong supporter of Kemp’s signature issue – an across-the-board tax rate reduction of 30 percent that Ronald Reagan adopted and enacted into law in 1981.

Mr Stockman, however, was not a Reagan man. In the 1980 Republican primaries he supported John Connally, the former Texas governor and Treasury secretary . But he quickly recovered after the election, writing a widely discussed memo to president-elect Reagan on “Avoiding a GOP Economic Dunkirk” that outlined various economic crises looming on the horizon that the new administration needed to tackle immediately.

On the strength of this memo, Mr Stockman was named by Reagan to be his White House budget director. By this time, he had become highly skeptical of a big tax cut without offsetting spending cuts. Rather foolishly, he confided his doubts about Reagan’s plan to cut taxes first and spending later to the journalist William Greider, who published them in the December 1981 issue of The Atlantic magazine.

Although Kemp and other Reagan supporters believed that Mr Stockman had betrayed them, Reagan forgave him and he remained budget director until 1985, when he left Washington to join the Wall Street firm Salomon Brothers. In 1986, Mr Stockman published a memoir, “The Triumph of Politics: Why the Reagan Revolution Failed.”

In the years since, Mr Stockman has kept a low political profile, working in the auto industry. Although out of the public eye, he has remained a symbol of what many people believe was a wrong turn on economic policy in the 1980s. That is when fiscal policy, in particular, got on the wrong track, with large budget deficits emerging that have bedeviled policymakers ever since. It is when Republicans abandoned their long-held support for a balanced budget and became fanatical tax cutters under any and all circumstances.

Mr Stockman himself shares these misgivings. Over the years, his concerns about governmental debt have grown to encompass all forms of debt, which he now appears to view as the root of all evil. His new book is really an extended screed against corporate, financial, housing and personal debt.

In this respect, Mr Stockman has aligned himself with monetary cranks who have long denounced “fiat money” and demanded the return to a rigid gold standard.

One tenet of Austrian economics, which Mr Stockman now embraces, is that all economic downturns are caused by government and only government. Inflation breeds indebtedness which breeds overinvestment which inevitably ends in an economic blow-up. Recessions are viewed both as necessary to cleanse economic excesses and as penance for straying from the one true path of gold, balanced budgets, and the night watchman state that does pretty much nothing except enforce contracts.

Believers in this worldview see Keynesian economics as their blood enemy. Mr Stockman spends many pages in his new book denouncing the British economist John Maynard Keynes as being primarily responsible for leading policymakers from the true path of fiscal and monetary righteousness onto the path sin, as exemplified by debt and fiat money.

Had someone other than Mr Stockman written such a tract or if it appeared at a different time, it would be ignored and quickly disappear. But at a time when excessive debt is at the root of many of the world’s economic problems, when nations like Cyprus simply confiscate bank deposits to pay national debts, and countries like Japan are actively attempting to inflate their currencies, many people are attracted to the simplicity and moral certitude of the old time religion that Mr Stockman articulates.

It may well be true that a more financially conservative set of policies would have spared us the current crisis. But it doesn’t follow that an immediate return to such policies will improve the situation. Preventative and curative measures often require different approaches in both medicine and finance. Using the former when the latter is needed can easily make matters worse.

The writer is a former senior economist at the White House, US Congress and Treasury. He is author of ‘The Benefit and the Burden: Tax Reform – Why We Need It and What It Will Take’.

請(qǐng)根據(jù)你所讀到的文章內(nèi)容，完成以下自測(cè)題目：

1.What does the writer trying to say when he introduced a lot about Stockman's relationship with Kemp?

A. That he had a good chance to enter the party's leadership in Congress.

B. That he was a proverbial whiz-kid of American politics.

C. That he once supported Reagan tax cuts.

D. That it was through Kemp that the writer met Stockman.

答案(1)

2.Why Kemp and Reagan supporters believed that Stockman had betrayed them?

A. Because he voted against Reagan.

B. Because he publicly confided his doubts about Reagan’s plan.

C. Because he left the administration as budget director.

D. Because he later became a "fanatical tax cutter".

答案(2)

3.What do we know about Austrian economics?

A. They believe that all economic downturns are caused by government.

B. They favor a strong central bank.

C. They endorse Bush and Obama's bailout and stimulus programs.

D. It is the Republican party's mainstream economics.

答案(3)

4.To sum up, what is "the David Stockman phenomenon"?

A. Writing unimaginably long books denouncing Capitalism in America.

B. Bashing mainstream politics after leaving the Congress.

C. Being too cautious and conservative financially.

D. Proposing preventive measures when curative measures are necessary.

答案(4)

* * *

(1) 答案：C.That he once supported Reagan tax cuts.

解釋?zhuān)篈文中未提到，B與問(wèn)題無(wú)關(guān)，而D并不需要一大段的話來(lái)介紹。顯然這是為了講主角斯托克曼思想變化的一個(gè)階段。

一點(diǎn)速讀小技巧：看到很多人名時(shí)，可以這樣簡(jiǎn)記：主角曾為Rep JA工作，后來(lái)也當(dāng)了Rep；作者是在為Rep JK工作時(shí)認(rèn)識(shí)主角的，主角與JK志同道合。主角沒(méi)有支持里根選總統(tǒng)，而是支持州長(zhǎng)JC。 ——這樣，即使都是陌生名字，看到問(wèn)題后你也可以迅速理清關(guān)系。出現(xiàn)次數(shù)越多的人越重要，州長(zhǎng)JC只出現(xiàn)一次，不需要費(fèi)時(shí)關(guān)注。

(2) 答案：B.Because he publicly confided his doubts about Reagan’s plan.

解釋?zhuān)哼@是文中原話。還可以用上面的小技巧簡(jiǎn)記：他寫(xiě)建議給里根，入閣，質(zhì)疑減稅，愚蠢地公開(kāi)發(fā)表對(duì)總統(tǒng)的懷疑，被認(rèn)為是背叛，卻留任，離開(kāi)后寫(xiě)書(shū)抨擊里根政策。

A文中未提到，而且他讓里根支持者不滿是在擔(dān)任閣員期間。斯托克曼在總統(tǒng)第一個(gè)任期結(jié)束后正常離開(kāi)，因此C不對(duì)。至于D，這是他后來(lái)對(duì)共和黨的批評(píng)。

(3) 答案：A.They believe that all economic downturns are caused by government.

解釋?zhuān)簥W地利學(xué)派經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)是一個(gè)很有影響的學(xué)派。顯然他們不贊同美國(guó)主流學(xué)界和政界的觀點(diǎn)。 比如，文中可以看到，他們認(rèn)為一切經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)的根源都是政府干預(yù)，政府干預(yù)--負(fù)債和通脹--央行壓低利率--overinvestment--資產(chǎn)泡沫破裂。 所以政府最好啥也不做，除了當(dāng)守夜人，甚至央行不要也行，恢復(fù)金本位就好了。

(4) 答案：D.Proposing preventive measures when curative measures are necessary.

解釋?zhuān)涸谖恼伦詈笠欢?，作者認(rèn)為保守的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的確可能避免經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)，但這是預(yù)防藥，現(xiàn)在需要治療用的藥，用預(yù)防藥可能會(huì)easily make matters worse. A顯然不正確，B現(xiàn)象也確實(shí)偶爾存在，但不是本文討論的。文章的題目或第一段意義不明時(shí)，需要留心文章是如何解釋的。