金正恩：“作”是因為缺乏安全感？

金正恩去年兩度核試驗，今年傳聞刺殺兄長。

Kim Jong Nam arrived early.With two hours until his flight home to Macau, the one-time heir to North Korea's ruling Kim dynasty ambled unaccompanied through the spacious budget terminal of Kuala Lumpur international airport.

金正男（Kim Jong Nam）到早了，他要乘坐的飛往澳門的航班還要兩個小時才起飛。這位朝鮮統(tǒng)治政權(quán)金家王朝曾經(jīng)的繼承人，孤身一人緩步行走在吉隆坡國際機場寬敞的廉價航班候機樓里。

A portly, unkempt figure, few would have guessed his almost royal lineage.But he was being watched, and his imminent assassination would send shockwaves around the world.

他看上去體態(tài)臃腫，不修邊幅，沒人會猜到他算得上皇室血脈。但他正被監(jiān)視著，且馬上就要被刺殺，而這一消息將震驚全球。

Two young women, one wearing a T-shirt bearing the initials LOL, stalked him through the terminal.A group of four male conspirators monitored events from a distance.

兩名年輕女子在航站樓里偷偷跟著他，一個穿著印有“LOL”字母的T恤。四名男性同謀遠遠地觀察著事態(tài)進展。

When the 46-year-old Kim—a half brother of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un—stopped at a self check-in kiosk, the women struck.

當46歲的金正男——朝鮮領導人金正恩（Kim Jong Un）同父異母的長兄——止步在一臺自助值機機器時，兩名女子發(fā)動了襲擊。

Approaching from behind, one jerked back his head and, according to police accounts, sprayed liquid in his face.The other simultaneously pounced, pressing a rag over his eyes, nose and mouth for about 10 seconds.

據(jù)警方報告，她們從金正男背后靠近他，一名女子猛地扭過他的頭，向他臉上噴灑液體。另一名女子同時撲過去，在他的眼睛、鼻子和嘴部用力捂上一塊布，時間有10秒鐘左右。

Dizzy and disoriented, Kim stumbled through the airport looking for assistance, only to succumb to the apparent poisoning minutes later as he was rushed to hospital.

頭暈目眩的金正男跌跌撞撞地在機場里尋求救助，明顯呈現(xiàn)中毒狀況，幾分鐘后在被緊急送往醫(yī)院途中身亡。

前排右為童年時代的金正男，前排左為他的父親金正日

The death of the would-be leader, widely believed to be at the hands of North Korean agents, was kept under wraps for almost two days before exploding across global media on Tuesday.When it did, the message was unmistakable：North Korea will brook no challenge, real or imagined, to its existence.No boundary, whether familial or geographic, was sacred.

外界普遍認為這位本來可能的接班人死于朝鮮特工之手，他的死訊被封鎖了近兩天，才于上周二在全球媒體迅速傳播。新聞出來后，其內(nèi)在信息不言而喻：朝鮮不會忍受對其存在的任何挑戰(zhàn)——無論是事實還是想象；沒有任何邊界是神圣不可侵犯的——無論是家族的還是地理的。

At a time when nations are again attempting to address the dangers posed by Pyongyang, the incident serves as a salutary lesson on the nature of the regime and its most deeply held intentions.

正值各國再次試圖解決平壤造成的危機之際，這一事件就朝鮮政權(quán)的性質(zhì)及其最根深蒂固的意圖，給世人上了有用的一課。

It is a warning that efforts to tackle the nuclear and ballistic weapons programmes of North Korea—once described by a US official as the “l(fā)and of lousy options”—hinge on a key factor：the survival instinct of the 33-year-old marshal Kim Jong Un.

金正男遇刺事件提出了一個警告，即想要處理朝鮮核武器和彈道導彈計劃，必須考慮一個關(guān)鍵因素：33歲的金正恩元帥的生存本能。一名美國官員曾將朝鮮描述為“糟糕選擇之地”。

Before departing the Oval Office, US President Barack Obama informed incoming leader Donald Trump that North Korea would represent his most pressing foreign policy challenge.

在離開橢圓形辦公室之前，美國總統(tǒng)巴拉克·奧巴馬（Barack Obama）對即將上任的唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）表示，朝鮮將成為他最緊迫的外交政策挑戰(zhàn)。

The country had stormed back up the list of potential geopolitical flashpoints in 2016 after testing two nuclear devices and more than 20 sophisticated short- and medium-range ballistic missiles.After Mr Obama brokered agreements with Cuba and Iran, North Korea stood apart as a glaring example of a rogue nation refusing to come to heel.And it moved quickly to grab Mr Trump's attention.

2016年朝鮮進行了兩次核試驗，還試射了20多枚高技術(shù)含量中短程彈道導彈，重新殺回地緣政治引爆點榜單。在奧巴馬與古巴和伊朗簽署協(xié)議之后，朝鮮拒不就范，成了流氓國家的典范，而且迅速吸引了特朗普的注意。

In a New Year's address, Mr Kim announced his regime had long-range missiles capable of hitting the US whenever it chooses.The country had never demonstrated such capabilities, but the rhetoric was enough to elicit a quick-fire tweet from the new US president, who vowed it “won't happen”.

金正恩在新年致辭中宣布，他的政權(quán)擁有遠程導彈，隨時可以打擊到美國。雖然朝鮮從未證明這一能力，但上述言論足以引發(fā)美國新任總統(tǒng)的Twitter快攻，特朗普發(fā)誓這種事“不會發(fā)生”。

Mr Trump was tested again last Sunday, this time in a more explosive manner, when Pyongyang launched an advanced mid-range rocket into the Sea of Japan.

上上周日特朗普再遭考驗，這一次更加具有爆炸性：朝鮮向日本海試射了一枚中程彈道導彈。

“This was a carefully layered message” to gauge Trump, says Bong Youngshik, a North Korea expert at Yonsei University in Seoul.

首爾延世大學（Yonsei University）朝鮮專家奉英植（Bong Young-shik）表示，“這是一條精心策劃的、多層次的信息”，為的是試探特朗普。

Mr Kim wanted to learn how Mr Trump would react, without completely shutting the door on negotiations by launching a long-range missile, according to Mr Bong.

奉英植認為，金正恩是想知道特朗普會作何反應，所以沒有試射遠程導彈，完全關(guān)閉談判大門。

The initial public response of Mr Trump, who at the time of the launch was hosting Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe at his Florida beach estate, was restrained.In a joint statement with Mr Abe, he vowed to support his “great ally” Japan.

特朗普的首次公開回應有所克制，導彈發(fā)射時特朗普正在他的佛羅里達州海灘莊園招待日本首相安倍晉三（Shinzo Abe）。在與安倍的聯(lián)合聲明中，特朗普發(fā)誓支持他的“偉大盟友”日本。

Survival instinct

生存本能

The focus has now shifted to how Mr Trump will respond to North Korea more broadly and how he will engage China, widely viewed as the crucial powerbroker.There is a growing consensus that the longstanding approach to North Korea—economic and diplomatic isolation enforced by rigid sanctions—is not working.

焦點現(xiàn)在轉(zhuǎn)向了特朗普將如何更全面地應對朝鮮問題，以及他將如何吸引中國加入，人們普遍認為中國是關(guān)鍵的權(quán)力中間人。有越來越多的共識認為對朝鮮的長期策略——以嚴格制裁實施經(jīng)濟和外交隔離——沒有起到作用。

“If the US really hopes to achieve peace on the Korean peninsula, it should stop looking for ways to stifle North Korea's economy and undermine Kim Jong Un's regime and start finding ways to make Pyongyang feel more secure,” wrote John Delury, a professor at Yonsei University, in a recent Foreign Affairs article.

延世大學教授魯樂漢（John Delury）近期在《外交政策》（Foreign Policy）上發(fā)文表示：“如果美國真正希望在朝鮮半島實現(xiàn)和平，就應停止想方設法地扼殺朝鮮經(jīng)濟，破壞金正恩政權(quán)，而要開始想辦法增加平壤方面的安全感?！?/p>

“This might sound counterintuitive.But consider this：North Korea will start focusing on its prosperity instead of its self-preservation only once it no longer has to worry about its own destruction.”

“這聽起來可能違反直覺，但請考慮一點，朝鮮只有不再擔心自己被摧毀，才會開始關(guān)注其國內(nèi)繁榮，而不是自衛(wèi)。”

For many, the sanctions, combined with the regular US-South Korea armed drills on the peninsula and the planned deployment of a missile shield that has angered Beijing, only strengthen Mr Kim's survival instinct and pushes him further down the path towards nuclear armament.

對許多人來說，對朝制裁，加上美韓在半島的常規(guī)軍演，以及惹怒北京的導彈防御系統(tǒng)部署計劃，只會強化金正恩的生存本能，推動他向核武器道路繼續(xù)前進。

According to policymakers and experts in Seoul, the prospect of de-nuclearisation in North Korea is already a lost cause—a notion echoed by James Clapper, the former US director of national intelligence, in a speech late last year.The weapons, much like the murder of Kim Jong Nam, act as a guarantee of the North Korean leader's safety, liberty and authority.

首爾的政策制定者和專家表示，朝鮮無核化的前景已經(jīng)失敗——美國前國家情報總監(jiān)（DNI）詹姆斯·克拉珀（James Clapper）在去年底的一次演講中呼應了這個觀點。這些武器，就像金正男被謀殺一樣，是這位朝鮮領導人的安全、自由和權(quán)威的保證。

A more viable option is a moratorium on their development, says Kim Jaechun, a professor of political science at Sogang University and adviser to the Seoul government.“De-nuclearisation is not possible.However, as long as the US doesn't try to dismantle its nuclear weapons, it is quite possible for North Korea to declare a moratorium on its nuclear programme.Proactive diplomacy is needed.”

一個更可行的選擇是延緩其核武器開發(fā)，西江大學（Sogang University）政治學教授、韓國政府顧問金宰春（Kim Jae-chun）說。“無核化是不可能的。然而，只要美國不試圖拆除其核武器，朝鮮就很有可能宣布暫停其核計劃。需要采取積極的外交行動?！?/p>

Prof Kim, like most strategists, is quick to dismiss the idea of a preventive military strike on Pyongyang's nuclear facilities.Such an attack would inevitably fail, he says, because most facilities are hidden underground.It would also result in catastrophic retaliatory strikes on Seoul, just 60km from the border.In the 1990s, US President Bill Clinton considered the option, only to be dissuaded by estimates of 1m South Korean casualties from such an attack.

像大多數(shù)戰(zhàn)略家一樣，金宰春教授毫不猶豫地否定了對朝鮮核設施發(fā)起預防性軍事打擊的想法。這種打擊必然會失敗，他說，因為大多數(shù)設施都隱藏在地下。這也將導致距離邊界僅60公里的首爾遭到災難性的報復攻擊。在1990年代，美國總統(tǒng)比爾·克林頓（Bill Clinton）曾考慮過這個選項，但報復攻擊會給韓國帶來約100萬傷亡，讓他放棄了這一想法。

However, engagement with Pyongyang is not favoured by all and is bitterly opposed by conservative South Korean groups.For them, de-nuclearisation is the crucial first step.

然而，并非各個方面都支持與平壤方面接觸，韓國保守集團對此表示強烈反對。對他們來說，無核化是關(guān)鍵的第一步。

“Lower tensions while North Korea is still moving towards nukes is a deception …It is just borrowing tomorrow's peace.It makes tomorrow more dangerous,” says Chun Yung-woo, a former leading South Korean negotiator with Pyongyang.

“當朝鮮仍然朝著核武器邁進時，緩和緊張是一句假話……這只是透支明天的和平。這使明天變得更危險，”韓國前對朝主要談判代表千英宇（Chun Yung-woo）說。

He says the international community must ratchet up sanctions to the point where the Kim regime faces no alternative but to make a deal.His proposal has some support in the US.On Thursday, a group of Republicans, including the Texas senator Ted Cruz, urged the Treasury to ramp up financial pressure on North Korea.

他表示，國際社會必須加強制裁，讓金正恩政權(quán)別無選擇，只能達成協(xié)議。他的提議在美國獲得一定的支持。最近，包括得克薩斯州參議員特德·克魯茲（Ted Cruz）在內(nèi)的一群共和黨人，敦促財政部加大對朝鮮的財政壓力。

詞匯總結(jié)

amble[??mbl]

vi.（馬）緩行;從容地走，漫步

n.（馬的）緩行步態(tài);從容輕松的步伐，漫步

Kim Jong Nam arrived early.With two hours until his flight home to Macau, the one-time heir to North Korea's ruling Kim dynasty ambled unaccompanied through the spacious budget terminal of Kuala Lumpur international airport.

金正男（Kim Jong Nam）到早了，他要乘坐的飛往澳門的航班還要兩個小時才起飛。這位朝鮮統(tǒng)治政權(quán)金家王朝曾經(jīng)的繼承人，孤身一人緩步行走在吉隆坡國際機場寬敞的廉價航班候機樓里。

portly[?p?:tli]

adj.肥胖的

A portly, unkempt figure, few would have guessed his almost royal lineage.

他看上去體態(tài)臃腫，不修邊幅，沒人會猜到他算得上皇室血脈。

stalk[st?:k]

n.[植]莖，稈;葉柄，花梗;高視闊步;偷偷接近，潛隨

vt.追蹤，潛近;高視闊步

Two young women, one wearing a T-shirt bearing the initials LOL, stalked him through the terminal.A group of four male conspirators monitored events from a distance.

兩名年輕女子在航站樓里偷偷跟著他，一個穿著印有“LOL”字母的T恤。四名男性同謀遠遠地觀察著事態(tài)進展。

disoriented[d?'s?:r??nt?d]

adj.分不清方向或目標的，無判斷力的

Dizzy and disoriented, Kim stumbled through the airport looking for assistance, only to succumb to the apparent poisoning minutes later as he was rushed to hospital.

頭暈目眩的金正男跌跌撞撞地在機場里尋求救助，明顯呈現(xiàn)中毒狀況，幾分鐘后在被緊急送往醫(yī)院途中身亡。