演講MP3+雙語(yǔ)文稿:病菌是如何在飛機(jī)上傳播的？我們?nèi)绾巫柚惯@種傳播？

聽(tīng)力課堂TED音頻欄目主要包括TED演講的音頻MP3及中英雙語(yǔ)文稿，供各位英語(yǔ)愛(ài)好者學(xué)習(xí)使用。本文主要內(nèi)容為演講MP3+雙語(yǔ)文稿:病菌是如何在飛機(jī)上傳播的？我們?nèi)绾巫柚惯@種傳播？，希望你會(huì)喜歡！

【演講人】雷蒙德·王

【演講主題】《病菌是如何在飛機(jī)上傳播的——以及我們要如何阻止這種傳播》

【演講文稿-中英文】

翻譯者 Shoudong He 校對(duì) Huazhe Xie

00:01

Can I get a show of hands -- how many of you in this room have been on a plane in this past year? That's pretty good. Well, it turns out that you share that experience with more than three billion people every year. And when we put so many people in all these metal tubes that fly all over the world, sometimes, things like this can happen and you get a disease epidemic.

可不可以請(qǐng)大家舉一下手—— 這里有多少人在過(guò)去一年中搭乘過(guò)飛機(jī)？ 看起來(lái)很多啊。 那么，事實(shí)證明你每年會(huì)與 超過(guò)30億人共享飛行的經(jīng)歷。 當(dāng)我們把這么多人放入所有這些 滿(mǎn)世界飛行的金屬管時(shí)， 有時(shí)會(huì)發(fā)生這樣的事情—— 你會(huì)感染一種傳染病。

00:25

I first actually got into this topic when I heard about the Ebola outbreak last year. And it turns out that, although Ebola spreads through these more range-limited, large-droplet routes, there's all these other sorts of diseases that can be spread in the airplane cabin. The worst part is, when we take a look at some of the numbers, it's pretty scary. So with H1N1, there was this guy that decided to go on the plane and in the matter of a single flight actually spread the disease to 17 other people. And then there was this other guy with SARS, who managed to go on a three-hour flight and spread the disease to 22 other people. That's not exactly my idea of a great superpower.

我最初開(kāi)始這個(gè)課題， 是在去年聽(tīng)說(shuō)了埃博拉疫情爆發(fā)的時(shí)候。 事實(shí)表明， 盡管埃博拉病毒是在很有限的范圍內(nèi)， 以飛沫傳染的方式進(jìn)行傳播的， 還有其它很多種疾病 也會(huì)在機(jī)艙中傳播。 最糟糕的是， 當(dāng)我們看到一些數(shù)字時(shí)， 會(huì)感到很恐懼。 攜帶有H1N1的這家伙 決定了要登上飛機(jī)， 就單個(gè)航班而言， 他可以把疾病傳播給其他17個(gè)人。 還有另一個(gè)家伙攜帶有“非典“病菌, 登上了一個(gè)三小時(shí)的航班， 并把疾病傳播給了其他22個(gè)人。 我原先并不知道這種傳染性竟然這么強(qiáng)。

01:03

When we take a look at this, what we also find is that it's very difficult to pre-screen for these diseases. So when someone actually goes on a plane, they could be sick and they could actually be in this latency period in which they could actually have the disease but not exhibit any symptoms, and they could, in turn, spread the disease to many other people in the cabin.

看一下這張圖，我們也會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)， 事先篩查出這些疾病是非常困難的。 所以，當(dāng)有人上了飛機(jī)， 他們可能是病人， 也可能處于疾病的潛伏期， 也就是說(shuō)他們會(huì)得上這種病， 但是海沒(méi)有表現(xiàn)出任何癥狀， 于是他們就可能把疾病傳染給 機(jī)艙中的其他人。

01:23

How that actually works is that right now we've got air coming in from the top of the cabin and from the side of the cabin, as you see in blue. And then also, that air goes out through these very efficient filters that eliminate 99.97 percent of pathogens near the outlets. What happens right now, though, is that we have this mixing airflow pattern. So if someone were to actually sneeze, that air would get swirled around multiple times before it even has a chance to go out through the filter. So I thought: clearly, this is a pretty serious problem.

這到底是怎么傳播的呢？ 事實(shí)上，空氣由機(jī)艙的頂部和側(cè)邊進(jìn)入， 就是你們看到的藍(lán)色箭頭的位置。 然后，空氣通過(guò)這些 高效的過(guò)濾器離開(kāi)機(jī)艙， 出口附近99.97%的病菌都會(huì)被過(guò)濾掉。 然而，目前的情況是， 空氣是按這種混合氣流的方式流動(dòng)著。 所以如果有人打了個(gè)噴嚏， 周?chē)目諝饩蜁?huì)呈漩渦態(tài)反復(fù)打轉(zhuǎn)， 然后才有機(jī)會(huì)從過(guò)濾器排出。 所以我覺(jué)得這明顯是個(gè)嚴(yán)重的問(wèn)題。

01:55

I didn't have the money to go out and buy a plane, so I decided to build a computer instead. It actually turns out that with computational fluid dynamics, what we're able to do is create these simulations that give us higher resolutions than actually physically going in and taking readings in the plane. And so how, essentially, this works is you would start out with these 2D drawings -- these are floating around in technical papers around the Internet. I take that and then I put it into this 3D-modeling software, really building that 3D model. And then I divide that model that I just built into these tiny pieces, essentially meshing it so that the computer can better understand it. And then I tell the computer where the air goes in and out of the cabin, throw in a bunch of physics and basically sit there and wait until the computer calculates the simulation.

我買(mǎi)不起飛機(jī)， 所以我決定弄臺(tái)計(jì)算機(jī)試試看。 事實(shí)表明，利用計(jì)算流體動(dòng)力學(xué)， 我們就能夠模擬這些情況， 相較于真正進(jìn)入飛機(jī)獲取數(shù)據(jù)， 這樣其實(shí)更方便進(jìn)行數(shù)據(jù)解析。 我們的工作是從這些 2D圖形開(kāi)始的—— 網(wǎng)絡(luò)上有很多關(guān)于這方面的技術(shù)論文。 我把它們導(dǎo)入到3D模型軟件中， 建立了那個(gè)3D模型。 然后我把剛剛建好的模型分解成小塊， 徹底打碎這個(gè)模型， 使得計(jì)算機(jī)能夠更好地理解每組數(shù)據(jù)。 然后我告訴計(jì)算機(jī)空氣出入機(jī)艙的位置， 在機(jī)艙內(nèi)放置一些物體， 然后基本就可以坐在一邊 直到計(jì)算機(jī)模擬完成。

02:44

So what we get, actually, with the conventional cabin is this: you'll notice the middle person sneezing, and we go "Splat!" -- it goes right into people's faces. It's pretty disgusting. From the front, you'll notice those two passengers sitting next to the central passenger not exactly having a great time. And when we take a look at that from the side, you'll also notice those pathogens spreading across the length of the cabin.

若是用傳統(tǒng)的機(jī)艙，我們得到的結(jié)果是， 中間的乘客打噴嚏時(shí)， 在“阿欠”一聲后氣流 就會(huì)噴向人們的臉部。 實(shí)在有點(diǎn)惡心。 從前面看，中間乘客身旁的 兩位乘客， 肯定不會(huì)開(kāi)心。 從側(cè)邊觀察一下， 你也會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)那些病菌 會(huì)在機(jī)艙內(nèi)前后傳播。

03:10

The first thing I thought was, "This is no good." So I actually conducted more than 32 different simulations and ultimately, I came up with this solution right here. This is what I call a -- patent pending -- Global Inlet Director. With this, we're able to reduce pathogen transmission by about 55 times, and increase fresh-air inhalation by about 190 percent.

我的第一反應(yīng)是“這樣可不好”。 我實(shí)際上創(chuàng)建了 32個(gè)不同的情況的模擬， 并最終得到了這個(gè)解決方案。 我稱(chēng)它為——專(zhuān)利審核中的—— 環(huán)流入口導(dǎo)向器。 有了這個(gè)，我們可以把 病菌傳播的可能性 降低55倍， 并可以增加190%可吸入的新鮮空氣。

03:30

So how this actually works is we would install this piece of composite material into these existing spots that are already in the plane. So it's very cost-effective to install and we can do this directly overnight. All we have to do is put a couple of screws in there and you're good to go. And the results that we get are absolutely amazing. Instead of having those problematic swirling airflow patterns, we can create these walls of air that come down in-between the passengers to create personalized breathing zones.

那么在實(shí)際過(guò)程中如何使用呢？ 我們只需要把這塊復(fù)合材料 安裝到飛機(jī)上已經(jīng)存在的這些位置。 安裝成本非常低， 只需要一個(gè)晚上就能全部安裝好。 所有的工作僅僅是要 上幾顆螺絲，非常簡(jiǎn)單。 我們得到的結(jié)果非常驚人。 避開(kāi)了那些有問(wèn)題的漩渦氣流模式， 我們能夠在乘客中間， 建立起這些空氣墻， 從而創(chuàng)造出私人的呼吸區(qū)域。

03:57

So you'll notice the middle passenger here is sneezing again, but this time, we're able to effectively push that down to the filters for elimination. And same thing from the side, you'll notice we're able to directly push those pathogens down. So if you take a look again now at the same scenario but with this innovation installed, you'll notice the middle passenger sneezes, and this time, we're pushing that straight down into the outlet before it gets a chance to infect any other people. So you'll notice the two passengers sitting next to the middle guy are breathing virtually no pathogens at all. Take a look at that from the side as well, you see a very efficient system.

這樣你會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)當(dāng)中間的乘客 再打噴嚏時(shí)， 我們就能夠有效地迫使 帶有病菌的空氣向下流動(dòng)， 直接經(jīng)過(guò)濾器排出。 從側(cè)邊再看一下， 可以看到我們能夠直接讓病菌向下流動(dòng)。 安裝了這個(gè)新的設(shè)計(jì)， 現(xiàn)在再看一下同樣的情形， 你會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)中間乘客打噴嚏時(shí)， 我們能夠在其他人受到影響之前， 直接把病菌向下推送并排出機(jī)艙。 可以看到中間乘客身邊的兩位乘客 安全不會(huì)吸入病菌。 再?gòu)膫?cè)邊看一下， 這是一個(gè)非常有效的系統(tǒng)。

04:35

And in short, with this system, we win. When we take a look at what this means, what we see is that this not only works if the middle passenger sneezes, but also if the window-seat passenger sneezes or if the aisle-seat passenger sneezes.

總而言之，有了這個(gè)系統(tǒng)，我們贏了。 當(dāng)我們?cè)龠M(jìn)一步看看它的效果， 可以看到這不僅在當(dāng)中間位置的乘客 打噴嚏時(shí)有效， 也對(duì)窗邊或者過(guò)道邊的乘客 非常有效。

04:51

And so with this solution, what does this mean for the world? Well, when we take a look at this from the computer simulation into real life, we can see with this 3D model that I built over here, essentially using 3D printing, we can see those same airflow patterns coming down, right to the passengers. In the past, the SARS epidemic actually cost the world about 40 billion dollars. And in the future, a big disease outbreak could actually cost the world in excess of three trillion dollars. So before, it used to be that you had to take an airplane out of service for one to two months, spend tens of thousands of man hours and several million dollars to try to change something. But now, we're able to install something essentially overnight and see results right away.

那么，這個(gè)解決方案 對(duì)全世界意味著什么了？ 當(dāng)我們把視角從計(jì)算機(jī)模擬 轉(zhuǎn)換到現(xiàn)實(shí)生活時(shí)， 在利用3D打印 做好了這個(gè)3D模型后， 我們能夠看到氣流直接 對(duì)著乘客往下流動(dòng)。 在過(guò)去，“非典”足足花費(fèi)了 全世界400億美元。 在將來(lái)， 一個(gè)大型疾病的爆發(fā)可能會(huì) 花費(fèi)全世界 超過(guò)3萬(wàn)億美元。 以前，我們經(jīng)常不得不讓飛機(jī) 停飛一兩個(gè)月， 花費(fèi)大量人力以及巨資， 來(lái)試著解決一些問(wèn)題。 但現(xiàn)在我們只需花上一個(gè)晚上 安裝一下這個(gè)東西，效果就立竿見(jiàn)影了。

05:37

So it's really now a matter of taking this through to certification, flight testing, and going through all of these regulatory approvals processes. But it just really goes to show that sometimes the best solutions are the simplest solutions. And two years ago, even, this project would not have happened, just because the technology then wouldn't have supported it. But now with advanced computing and how developed our Internet is, it's really the golden era for innovation.

實(shí)際上，現(xiàn)在只需要 把這個(gè)結(jié)果拿去認(rèn)證， 進(jìn)行飛行測(cè)試， 再通過(guò)這些常規(guī)的 批準(zhǔn)過(guò)程就可以了。 事實(shí)表明，有時(shí)最好的解決方案 恰恰就是最簡(jiǎn)單的。 然而就兩年前， 這個(gè)項(xiàng)目甚至不可能實(shí)施， 只是因?yàn)槟菚r(shí)的技術(shù) 還無(wú)法實(shí)現(xiàn)這種設(shè)計(jì)。 但是有了先進(jìn)的計(jì)算技術(shù) 和如此發(fā)達(dá)的網(wǎng)絡(luò)， 我們現(xiàn)在真的處于創(chuàng)新的黃金時(shí)期。

06:05

And so the question I ask all of you today is: why wait? Together, we can build the future today.

所以今天我要問(wèn)大家的問(wèn)題是： 還在等什么呢？ 一起努力，我們今天就能創(chuàng)造未來(lái)。

06:11

Thanks.

謝謝。

06:12

(Applause)

（掌聲）