演講MP3+雙語文稿:在不可預知的世界中，我們能做些什么
聽力課堂TED音頻欄目主要包括TED演講的音頻MP3及中英雙語文稿，供各位英語愛好者學習使用。本文主要內容為演講MP3+雙語文稿:在不可預知的世界中，我們能做些什么，希望你會喜歡！
【演講人及介紹】Margaret Heffernan
作家，企業(yè)家瑪格麗特·赫弗南（Margaret Heffernan）是五家企業(yè)的前首席執(zhí)行官，她探索了導致組織和經(jīng)理誤入歧途的過分人性化的思維模式。
【演講主題】不可預知的世界里需要哪些人類技能
【演講文稿-中英文】
翻譯者 Carol Wang 校對 Yanyan Hong
00:12
Recently, the leadership team of anAmerican supermarket chain decided that their business needed to get a lot moreefficient. So they embraced their digital transformation with zeal. Out wentthe teams supervising meat, veg, bakery, and in came an algorithmic taskallocator. Now, instead of people working together, each employee went, clockedin, got assigned a task, did it, came back for more. This was scientificmanagement on steroids, standardizing and allocating work. It was superefficient.
最近，一個美國連鎖超市的領導團隊決定，他們的業(yè)務需大幅提高效率，所以，他們熱情地接受了數(shù)字化轉型，原先的團隊對肉類、蔬菜、烘焙的管理，而今被一個任務分配算法取而代之?，F(xiàn)在，大家不再是一起工作，而是每個員工到公司打卡、領任務，完成任務后，再回來領更多任務。這類似于對類固醇的科學管理，將工作標準化后進行工作分配，它非常高效。
00:50
Well, not quite, because the task allocatordidn't know when a customer was going to drop a box of eggs, couldn't predictwhen some crazy kid was going to knock over a display, or when the local highschool decided that everybody needed to bring in coconuts the next day.
不過也不完全是，因為任務分配器不知道客戶何時會把一盒雞蛋掉到地上，也無法預測哪個皮孩子會在何時撞翻展示架，或者哪天當?shù)馗咧袝Q定第二天讓每人帶椰子去學校。
01:07
(Laughter)
（笑聲）
01:08
Efficiency works really well when you canpredict exactly what you're going to need. But when the anomalous or unexpectedcomes along -- kids, customers, coconuts -- well, then efficiency is no longeryour friend.
當你能準確預測出自己會需要什么時，效率非常重要。但是，當異?；蛞馔獬霈F(xiàn)時——如孩子、顧客、椰子——那么效率就不再是你的朋友了。
01:24
This has become a really crucial issue,this ability to deal with the unexpected, because the unexpected is becomingthe norm. It's why experts and forecasters are reluctant to predict anythingmore than 400 days out. Why? Because over the last 20 or 30 years, much of theworld has gone from being complicated to being complex -- which means that yes,there are patterns, but they don't repeat themselves regularly. It means thatvery small changes can make a disproportionate impact. And it means thatexpertise won't always suffice, because the system just keeps changing toofast.
這種處理意外的能力就變得非常關鍵了，因為意外情況會成為常態(tài)。這就是為什么專家和預測人員不愿意預測任何超過 400 天的事情。為什么？因為在過去的 20 或 30 年里，世界上的許多地方已經(jīng)從繁雜變?yōu)閺碗s——這意味著，模式雖然存在，但它們不會經(jīng)常重復。這意味著，非常小的變化可能會產(chǎn)生巨大影響；專業(yè)知識也許總是不夠，因為系統(tǒng)變化太快。
02:08
So what that means is that there's a hugeamount in the world that kind of defies forecasting now. It's why the Bank ofEngland will say yes, there will be another crash, but we don't know why orwhen. We know that climate change is real, but we can't predict where forestfires will break out, and we don't know which factories are going to flood.It's why companies are blindsided when plastic straws and bags and bottledwater go from staples to rejects overnight, and baffled when a change in socialmores turns stars into pariahs and colleagues into outcasts: ineradicableuncertainty. In an environment that defies so much forecasting, efficiencywon't just not help us, it specifically undermines and erodes our capacity toadapt and respond.
也就是說，世界上有大量的東西現(xiàn)在無法預測。這就是為什么英格蘭銀行會說，“是的，會有另一次崩盤，但我們不知道為什么或何時發(fā)生?！蔽覀冎罋夂蜃兓钦鎸嵉?，但我們無法預測哪里會有森林火災，也不知道哪些工廠會發(fā)生洪澇。這就是為什么當一夜之間，塑料吸管、塑料袋和瓶裝水從生活必需品變成人人喊打的產(chǎn)品，制造公司卻會感到不知所措；當社會動蕩的變化將明星變成棄兒、同事變成被驅逐的人時，他們會感到困惑：不可避免的不確定性。在令眾多預測無效的環(huán)境中，效率不僅無法幫助我們，反倒會破壞和削弱我們的適應和應對能力。
03:16
So if efficiency is no longer our guidingprinciple, how should we address the future? What kind of thinking is reallygoing to help us? What sort of talents must we be sure to defend? I think that,where in the past we used to think a lot about just in time management, now wehave to start thinking about just in case, preparing for events that aregenerally certain but specifically remain ambiguous.
因此，如果效率不再是指導原則，那么，我們該如何應對未來呢？什么樣的思考才能真正幫到我們呢？我們必須要捍衛(wèi)什么樣的才能？過去我們經(jīng)常思考“及時管理”，現(xiàn)在，我認為我們必須開始考慮“以防萬一”，為一般情況下雖然很確定，但仍不能完全掌握的情況做準備。
03:45
One example of this is the Coalition forEpidemic Preparedness, CEPI. We know there will be more epidemics in future,but we don't know where or when or what. So we can't plan. But we can prepare.So CEPI's developing multiple vaccines for multiple diseases, knowing that theycan't predict which vaccines are going to work or which diseases will breakout. So some of those vaccines will never be used. That's inefficient. But it'srobust, because it provides more options, and it means that we don't depend ona single technological solution. Epidemic responsiveness also depends hugely onpeople who know and trust each other. But those relationships take time todevelop, time that is always in short supply when an epidemic breaks out. SoCEPI is developing relationships, friendships, alliances now knowing that someof those may never be used. That's inefficient, a waste of time, perhaps, butit's robust.
其中一個例子是流行病預防聯(lián)盟，即 CEPI。我們知道將來會有更多流行病，但不知何地、何時、是哪種流行病。所以我們根本無法計劃，但我們可為此準備。因此，CEPI 正針對多種疾病開發(fā)疫苗，他們知道，無法預測哪種疫苗會起作用、或者說，哪種疾病會爆發(fā)。因此，一些疫苗將永遠用不到。這樣做的效率很低，但它很強大，因為它提供了更多選擇，這意味著我們不再依賴于單一的技術解決方案。對流行病的響應能力很大程度上取決于相互了解和信任的人。但建立這些關系需要時間，當流行病爆發(fā)時，時間總不夠用。因此，CEPI 眼下正在建立關系、友誼、聯(lián)盟，深諳其中一些可能永遠用不到。這可能效率低、浪費時間，但這種做法十分穩(wěn)妥。
04:59
You can see robust thinking in financialservices, too. In the past, banks used to hold much less capital than they'rerequired to today, because holding so little capital, being too efficient withit, is what made the banks so fragile in the first place. Now, holding morecapital looks and is inefficient. But it's robust, because it protects thefinancial system against surprises.
在金融服務中，你也能看到穩(wěn)健性思維。在過去，通常銀行持有的資本遠遠少于今天所需的資本，因為持有如此少的資本、過于高效的做法 會首先使銀行變得很脆弱?，F(xiàn)在，持有更多資本 看起來效率低，也確實效率低。但它很穩(wěn)健，因為它可以 保護金融系統(tǒng)免受意外。
05:29
Countries that are really serious aboutclimate change know that they have to adopt multiple solutions, multiple formsof renewable energy, not just one. The countries that are most advanced havebeen working for years now, changing their water and food supply and healthcaresystems, because they recognize that by the time they have certain prediction,that information may very well come too late.
對氣候變化非常認真的國家知道，他們必須采用多種解決方案、多種形式的可再生能源，而不僅僅是一種。最先進的國家多年來一直致力于改變水和食品供應和醫(yī)療保健系統(tǒng)，因為他們認識到，就算他們預測到了，到那時候再搜集這些信息可能就太晚了。
05:57
You can take the same approach to tradewars, and many countries do. Instead of depending on a single huge tradingpartner, they try to be everybody's friends, because they know they can'tpredict which markets might suddenly become unstable. It's time-consuming andexpensive, negotiating all these deals, but it's robust because it makes theirwhole economy better defended against shocks. It's particularly a strategyadopted by small countries that know they'll never have the market muscle tocall the shots, so it's just better to have too many friends. But if you'restuck in one of these organizations that's still kind of captured by theefficiency myth, how do you start to change it? Try some experiments.
同樣的方式也可以用來應對貿易戰(zhàn)，許多國家也是這樣做的。與其依賴一個強有力的貿易伙伴，不如試圖成為每個人的朋友，因為他們知道無法預測，哪些市場可能會突然變得不穩(wěn)定。所有這些交易的談判耗時又昂貴，但它很穩(wěn)定，因為它使整個經(jīng)濟體能更好地抵御沖擊。小國家尤其喜歡采用這樣的策略，他們知道靠自己的市場力量永遠不可能做主，所以擁有朋友越多越好。但如果你陷入其中一個依然崇尚效率神話的組織里，你又如何開始改變呢？嘗試一些實驗吧。
06:50
In the Netherlands, home care nursing usedto be run pretty much like the supermarket: standardized and prescribed work tothe minute: nine minutes on Monday, seven minutes on Wednesday, eight minuteson Friday. The nurses hated it. So one of them, Jos de Blok, proposed anexperiment. Since every patient is different, and we don't quite know exactlywhat they'll need, why don't we just leave it to the nurses to decide?
過去在荷蘭，家庭護理業(yè)的運作非常像超市：標準化和規(guī)定的工作量化到分鐘： 周一 9 分鐘、周三 7 分鐘、 周五 8 分鐘。護士們討厭這些，所以其中叫喬斯·德·勃洛克 （Jos de Blok）的人 提議做一個實驗。由于每個患者都不同，我們并不確切知道他們需要什么，為何不讓護士來決定呢？
07:21
Sound reckless?
聽起來很魯莽嗎？
07:22
(Laughter)
（笑聲）
07:24
(Applause)
（掌聲）
07:26
In his experiment, Jos found the patientsgot better in half the time, and costs fell by 30 percent. When I asked Joswhat had surprised him about his experiment, he just kind of laughed and hesaid, "Well, I had no idea it could be so easy to find such a hugeimprovement, because this isn't the kind of thing you can know or predictsitting at a desk or staring at a computer screen." So now this form ofnursing has proliferated across the Netherlands and around the world. But inevery new country it still starts with experiments, because each place isslightly and unpredictably different.
在實驗中，喬斯發(fā)現(xiàn)，只需原來一半的時間，患者反而恢復得更好了，成本還下降了30％。當我問喬斯，實驗的哪個部分讓他感到驚訝時，他只是笑了笑，說道：“我沒想到 這么容易就做出了如此巨大的改進，因為這不是你坐在辦公桌前 或盯著電腦屏幕 就能了解或預知的事情?！?“所以，現(xiàn)在這種形式的護理 已在荷蘭和世界各地蔓延開來。但在每個新的國家，它仍然從實驗開始，因為每個地方都有所不同，而且無法提前預測。
08:11
Of course, not all experiments work. Jostried a similar approach to the fire service and found it didn't work becausethe service is just too centralized. Failed experiments look inefficient, butthey're often the only way you can figure out how the real world works. So nowhe's trying teachers. Experiments like that require creativity and not a littlebravery.
當然，并非所有實驗都有效。喬斯嘗試了類似的消防服務方法，發(fā)現(xiàn)它沒什么用，因為服務過于集中。失敗的實驗看起來效率低下，但它們往往是弄清現(xiàn)實世界如何運作的唯一方法。所以，現(xiàn)在他正在教育行業(yè)嘗試。像這樣的實驗需要創(chuàng)造力，而不是單單一點勇氣就可以的。
08:41
In England -- I was about to say in the UK,but in England --
在英格蘭——我正準備說在英國呢，其實是在英格蘭——
08:46
(Laughter)
（笑聲）
08:48
(Applause)
（掌聲）
08:53
In England, the leading rugby team, or oneof the leading rugby teams, is Saracens. The manager and the coach thererealized that all the physical training they do and the data-drivenconditioning that they do has become generic; really, all the teams do exactlythe same thing. So they risked an experiment. They took the whole team away,even in match season, on ski trips and to look at social projects in Chicago.This was expensive, it was time-consuming, and it could be a little riskyputting a whole bunch of rugby players on a ski slope, right?
在英格蘭，領先的橄欖球隊，或領先的橄欖球隊之一是撒拉遜人 （Saracens）。球隊的經(jīng)理和教練意識到，他們做的全部體能訓練 和數(shù)據(jù)驅動訓練 已變得通用化； 實際上，所有球隊都做同樣的事情，所以，他們冒險做了一個實驗。即使還在賽季中，他們依然帶領整個團隊去滑雪，并觀察芝加哥的社交項目。這些活動費用很高，又耗費時間，讓全隊的橄欖球運動員待在滑雪坡上，可能還是有點冒險的吧？
09:32
(Laughter)
（笑聲）
09:33
But what they found was that the playerscame back with renewed bonds of loyalty and solidarity. And now when they're onthe pitch under incredible pressure, they manifest what the manager calls"poise" -- an unflinching, unwavering dedication to each other. Theiropponents are in awe of this, but still too in thrall to efficiency to try it.
但他們發(fā)現(xiàn)，回來之后，球員們更加忠誠、團隊關系更堅固了。而現(xiàn)在，當他們在球場上面臨令人難以置信的壓力時，他們能做到經(jīng)理所說的“鎮(zhèn)靜”——一種彼此間堅定不移、毫不動搖的奉獻精神。他們的對手對此感到敬畏，但又太被效率所束縛而不敢嘗試這種方式。
10:05
At a London tech company, Verve, the CEOmeasures just about everything that moves, but she couldn't find anything thatmade any difference to the company's productivity. So she devised an experimentthat she calls "Love Week": a whole week where each employee has tolook for really clever, helpful, imaginative things that a counterpart does,call it out and celebrate it. It takes a huge amount of time and effort; lotsof people would call it distracting. But it really energizes the business andmakes the whole company more productive.
倫敦有一家名叫沃吾 （Verve）的科技公司，他們的首席執(zhí)行官 量化了一切工作量，但她找不到 對公司生產(chǎn)力產(chǎn)生關鍵影響的東西。因此，她設計了一個 她稱之為“愛之周”的實驗： 整整一周，每個員工 必須尋找隊友所做的非常聰明、 有益、富有想象力的事情，說出來，并贊美它。這需要大量的時間和精力；很多人會稱它分散注意力。但它確實為企業(yè)注入了活力，使整個公司的生產(chǎn)力大幅提高。
10:44
Preparedness, coalition-building,imagination, experiments, bravery -- in an unpredictable age, these aretremendous sources of resilience and strength. They aren't efficient, but theygive us limitless capacity for adaptation, variation and invention. And theless we know about the future, the more we're going to need these tremendoussources of human, messy, unpredictable skills.
準備就緒、聯(lián)盟建設、想象力、實驗、 勇氣 —— 在不可預測的時代，這些都是堅韌和力量的巨大來源。雖然它們的效率不高，但它們?yōu)槲覀兲峁┝藷o限的適應、變化和創(chuàng)新能力。我們對未來的了解越少，就會越需要這些人類所擁有的雜亂的、不可預測的技能的巨大來源。
11:27
But in our growing dependence ontechnology, we're asset-stripping those skills. Every time we use technology tonudge us through a decision or a choice or to interpret how somebody's feelingor to guide us through a conversation, we outsource to a machine what we could,can do ourselves, and it's an expensive trade-off. The more we let machinesthink for us, the less we can think for ourselves. The more --
但是，隨著對技術的日益依賴，我們正在削減這些技能。每次我們使用科技來推動做出決定或選擇時、或者用科技來解讀人的感受、或用科技引導我們完成對話時，我們是在將本來應該自己做而且能做的事情外包給機器去完成，這是一項昂貴的交換。讓機器為我們思考得越多，我們就越不能為自己思考。越多的——
12:06
(Applause)
（掌聲）
12:11
The more time doctors spend staring atdigital medical records, the less time they spend looking at their patients.The more we use parenting apps, the less we know our kids. The more time wespend with people that we're predicted and programmed to like, the less we canconnect with people who are different from ourselves. And the less compassionwe need, the less compassion we have.
醫(yī)生看數(shù)字醫(yī)療記錄的時間越多，他們用來問診病人的時間就會越少。育兒應用程序用得越多，我們對孩子的了解就會越少?；ㄙM在預測我們會喜歡，或計劃喜歡的人的時間越長，我們就越不會和與自己不同的人聯(lián)系。我們需要的同情越少，我們的同情心就會越少。
12:41
What all of these technologies attempt todo is to force-fit a standardized model of a predictable reality onto a worldthat is infinitely surprising. What gets left out? Anything that can't bemeasured -- which is just about everything that counts.
所有這些科技都在試圖用可預測現(xiàn)實的標準化模型去強制適應一個給你無限驚喜的世界。我們遺漏了什么？我們遺漏了所有無法衡量的東西—— 幾乎都是非常重要的東西。
13:05
(Applause)
（掌聲）
13:14
Our growing dependence on technology risksus becoming less skilled, more vulnerable to the deep and growing complexity ofthe real world.
我們對科技的日益依賴使我們面臨自身技能變差的風險，使我們更容易受到深層和日益復雜的現(xiàn)實世界的影響。
13:29
Now, as I was thinking about the extremesof stress and turbulence that we know we will have to confront, I went and Italked to a number of chief executives whose own businesses had gone throughexistential crises, when they teetered on the brink of collapse. These werefrank, gut-wrenching conversations. Many men wept just remembering. So I askedthem: "What kept you going through this?"
當我想到我們必須面對的極端壓力和動蕩時，我曾找過一些首席執(zhí)行官談話，他們自己的企業(yè)都經(jīng)歷過生存危機，那時他們曾瀕臨崩潰的邊緣。這些是坦誠而痛苦的對話，很多男子漢回顧往事都不禁潸然淚下。我問他們：“是什么讓你克服了危機？”
14:05
And they all had exactly the same answer."It wasn't data or technology," they said. "It was my friendsand my colleagues who kept me going."
他們都有完全相同的答案。“不是數(shù)據(jù)或科技，”他們說。“而是我的朋友和同事們支持著我繼續(xù)前進。”
14:17
One added, "It was pretty much theopposite of the gig economy."
其中一位補充說：“這與臨時工性質完全相反。”
14:24
But then I went and I talked to a group ofyoung, rising executives, and I asked them, "Who are your friends atwork?" And they just looked blank.
后來我又去和一群年輕新晉高管交談，我問他們：“工作中有誰是你朋友嗎？”他們看起來很困惑，
14:33
"There's no time."
“沒時間交朋友。”
14:35
"They're too busy."
“他們太忙了。”
14:37
"It's not efficient."
“交朋友效率低下?！?/p>
14:39
Who, I wondered, is going to give themimagination and stamina and bravery when the storms come?
我想知道的是，當暴風雨來臨時，誰去賦予他們想象力、毅力和勇氣呢？
14:51
Anyone who tries to tell you that they knowthe future is just trying to own it, a spurious kind of manifest destiny. Theharder, deeper truth is that the future is uncharted, that we can't map it tillwe get there.
任何試圖告訴你他們知道未來的人，他們只是試圖擁有未來，這是一種虛假的天定命運。更難、更深刻的事實是，未來是未知的，在它來臨前，根本無法知曉。
15:10
But that's OK, because we have so muchimagination -- if we use it. We have deep talents of inventiveness andexploration -- if we apply them. We are brave enough to invent things we'venever seen before. Lose those skills, and we are adrift. But hone and developthem, we can make any future we choose.
但那沒關系，因為我們有很多想象力——如果我們肯去想象的話。我們有創(chuàng)造和探索的深厚才能——如果我們肯應用這些才能的話。我們足夠勇敢去發(fā)明以前從未見過的東西，同樣，要是失去這些技能，我們只能隨波逐流。但是，磨練和發(fā)展這些技能，我們就可以創(chuàng)造出我們選擇的任何未來。
15:44
Thank you.
謝謝！
15:45
(Applause)
（掌聲）
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