The following appeared in a health newsletter.
“A ten-year nationwide study of the effectiveness of wearing a helmet while bicycling indicates that ten years ago, approximately 35 percent of all bicyclists reported wearing helmets, whereas today that number is nearly 80 percent. Another study, however, suggests that during the same ten-year period, the number of bicycle-related accidents has increased 200 percent. These results demonstrate that bicyclists feel safer because they are wearing helmets, and they take more risks as a result. Thus, to reduce the number of serious injuries from bicycle accidents, the government should concentrate more on educating people about bicycle safety and less on encouraging or requiring bicyclists to wear helmets.”
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
五問:
(1)“A ten-year nationwide study of the effectiveness of wearing a helmet while bicycling indicates that ten years ago, approximately 35 percent of all bicyclists reported wearing helmets, whereas today that number is nearly 80 percent. Another study, however, suggests that during the same ten-year period, the number of bicycle-related accidents has increased 200 percent”是事實, “Thus, to reduce the number of serious injuries from bicycle accidents, the government should concentrate more on educating people about bicycle safety and less on encouraging or requiring bicyclists to wear helmets”是結論,值得反駁嗎?
(2)對于原文給出的第一項調查研究,我們能否簡單地依據人們的報告來判定戴頭盔的自行車手的比例?戴了頭盔的自行車手一定愿意告訴別人自己戴了頭盔嗎?原文給出的第二項研究中提到的與自行車相關的事故一定是由自行車手導致的嗎?或者說一定與自行車手本身相關嗎?
(3)原文使用了兩項調查研究進行對比,并且也強調了兩項研究的時間段一致;但是同學們應當思考,兩項研究僅僅時間段一致就能夠用于對比了嗎?你能想出可能影響兩項調查研究進行對比的要素嗎?例如:樣本的選擇可能并不一致。
(4)發(fā)生更多的車禍一定是因為戴了頭盔的自行車手更大膽了嗎?你能否想出其他可能導致自行車手的安全事故增多的原因?例如:開車的司機不遵守交通規(guī)則,沒有專用的自行車道等。
(5)政府推行的兩項措施之間一定是非此即彼的關系嗎?如果兩項措施都能被證明對自行車手的安全有利,這兩項措施是否應當同時被推行?