鐵礦石現貨價格逼近每噸100美元

Spot iron ore prices are fast approaching $100 a tonne, well above the levels at which miners and steelmakers in Japan, South Korea and Europe have struck supply deals, as demand outside China recovers.

隨著中國以外的需求復蘇，鐵礦石現貨價格正快速逼近每噸100美元，遠高于礦商與日本、韓國和歐洲鋼鐵制造商達成的協議價格。

The surge in spot prices has spurred several banks to forecast that benchmark – annually negotiated – prices will rise next year, reversing their previous expectations of a fall in prices. “The market is going up, up and up,” said one London-based iron ore broker.

現貨價格飆升，已促使數家銀行一改之前看跌的預期，預測明年的基準價格（每年談判一次）將上漲。“市場行情在不斷上漲，”倫敦一位鐵礦石經紀人表示。

Spot ore prices in China rose this week to $93 a tonne – including freight – and industry observers said the market could hit a year high above $100 a tonne in the near term. The surge is a remarkable rebound from April's low of $58 a tonne.

中國鐵礦石現貨價格本周升至每噸93美元（包括運費），而行業(yè)觀察家表示，近期市場可能會創(chuàng)下年度新高，突破每噸100美元。相較于4月份每噸58美元的低位，本輪反彈的幅度相當引人注目。

Christopher LaFemina, mining analyst with Barclays Capital in London, forecast a 5 per cent increase in 2010-11, to be followed by another 10 per cent rise the following year.

巴克萊資本(Barclays Capital)駐倫敦的礦業(yè)分析師克里斯托弗•拉菲米納(Christopher La Femina)預測，在2010-11年度，價格將上漲5%，接下的一年將進一步上漲10%。

David Butler, of Cazenove in London, said that a rise of 20 per cent next year was “increasingly a realistic outcome”.

倫敦嘉誠(Cazenove)的戴維•巴特勒(David Butler)表示，明年價位上漲20%正“逐漸成為一個現實的結果”。

The recovery in demand outside China, as steel producers restart idled production, is allowing miners Vale of Brazil, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton to ship more ore elsewhere and reduce supplies to the Chinese spot market. Spot prices for iron ore in China are rising as a result.

隨著鋼鐵制造商重啟閑置的生產設備，中國以外的需求反彈，這使巴西淡水河谷(Vale of Brazil)、力拓(Rio Tinto)和必和必拓(BHP Billiton)等礦商能夠向別處發(fā)運更多的礦石，而減少對中國現貨市場的供應。中國鐵礦石現貨價格正因此不斷上漲。

China's iron ore demand remains strong, with the country's steelmakers in June producing 49.42m tonnes of steel, an all-time monthly high.

中國的鐵礦石需求依舊強勁，該國鋼鐵商6月份生產了4942萬噸鋼鐵，為創(chuàng)紀錄月度新高。

BHP Billiton said yesterday that while China had almost completed a build-up in metals and minerals such as iron ore, “restocking” was evident in the US, Europe and Japan. The miner said its ore output fell 10 per cent for the three months ending June.

必和必拓昨日表示，盡管中國已基本完成金屬和鐵礦石等礦物的收儲工作，但美國、歐洲和日本明顯正在“重新補充庫存”。這家礦商表示，在截至6月的3個月內，其礦石產量下降了10%。

Malcolm Southwood, of Goldman Sachs JBWere in Sydney, said there was “scope for further strength in spot iron ore prices over the next six to 12 months” because of continued strength in Chinese steel output and “a recent improvement in demand for contract deliveries from non-Chinese steel mills”.

Goldman Sachs JBWere駐悉尼的馬爾科姆•索斯伍德(Malcolm Southwood)表示，由于中國鋼產量持續(xù)高企，以及“中國以外鋼廠的合約交割需求近期有所增加”，“未來6至12個月內，鐵礦石現貨價格還有進一步走高空間”。

The current spot price is almost 15 per cent above the level at which annual benchmark deals have been struck between global miners and big steelmakers outside China. Those agreements cut benchmark prices for the 2009-10 year by about 33 per cent from the 2008-09 level.

相較于全球礦商與中國以外大型鋼鐵商之間達成的年度基準價格水平，目前現貨價格已高出近15%。上述協議將2009-10年度基準價格在2008-09年度的基礎上削減約33%。

Chinese steelmakers and miners remain deadlocked about a benchmark deal for 2009-10.

中國鋼鐵商和礦商仍在2009-10年度基準價格的問題上僵持不下。

譯者/陳云飛