中歐商會(huì)：針對(duì)中國(guó)的傾銷案將明顯增多

China could face a protectionist backlash next year because of a huge over- expansion of industrial capacity in recent months that may lead to a surge in cheap exports, a European business group said yesterday.

一個(gè)歐洲商業(yè)組織昨日表示，中國(guó)最近數(shù)月工業(yè)產(chǎn)能大量過(guò)度擴(kuò)張，或?qū)?dǎo)致廉價(jià)出口商品猛增，這可能使中國(guó)明年面對(duì)貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義反彈。

The government's massive stimulus measures to revive the economy have exacerbated the already serious problem of manufacturing overcapacity, the European Chamber of Commerce in China said in a report. Industries such as steel, cement and plastics were still “blindly expanding”, it said.

中國(guó)歐盟商會(huì)(European Chamber of Commerce in China)在一份報(bào)告中表示，中國(guó)政府的大規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激措施加劇了本已嚴(yán)重的制造業(yè)產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩問(wèn)題。報(bào)告稱，鋼鐵、水泥和塑料等行業(yè)仍在“盲目擴(kuò)張”。

“By the second half of 2010, there will be far more dumping cases against China for unfair trading,” said Joerg Wuttke, chamber president. China's over- capacity was putting “political pressure on our leaders . . . We are really concerned about protectionism”.

“到2010年下半年，以不公平貿(mào)易為由針對(duì)中國(guó)的傾銷案將明顯增多，”中國(guó)歐盟商會(huì)主席約爾格•伍特克(Joerg Wuttke)表示。中國(guó)產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩問(wèn)題正給“我們的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人帶來(lái)政治壓力……我們確實(shí)擔(dān)心保護(hù)主義”。

A growing number of trade measures have been aimed at Chinese goods in recent months, including a decision by the US to place duties on China-made tyres and steel pipes.

近幾月來(lái)，針對(duì)中國(guó)商品的貿(mào)易保護(hù)措施不斷增多，如美國(guó)對(duì)中國(guó)制造的輪胎和鋼管加征關(guān)稅。

The chamber's report echoes recent official statements about the risks from the bank-led surge in investment this year. Last month, the State Council, China's cabinet, announced it was taking steps to limit capacity increases in seven sectors amid fears that over-investment would generate non-performing loans and hamper recovery.

中國(guó)歐盟商會(huì)的報(bào)告，與近期中國(guó)官方的聲明相呼應(yīng)，聲明談到了今年銀行牽頭的投資猛增可能造成的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。上月，中國(guó)國(guó)務(wù)院宣布，將采取措施限制七個(gè)行業(yè)的產(chǎn)能增長(zhǎng)，這是擔(dān)心過(guò)度投資可能造成不良貸款，并阻礙經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇。

Although the primary focus of the stimulus has been infrastructure, the spill-over effect has been continued expansion in steel, aluminium, cement and chemicals. The wind-power equipment and oil- refining sectors were also facing over-capacity, the European chamber said.

盡管經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激方案的重點(diǎn)一直是基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，但溢出效應(yīng)導(dǎo)致鋼鐵、鋁、水泥和化工等領(lǐng)域產(chǎn)能持續(xù)擴(kuò)張。中國(guó)歐盟商會(huì)表示，風(fēng)電設(shè)備和煉油行業(yè)同樣面臨著產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩問(wèn)題。

Mr Wuttke estimated overcapacity in China's steel sector at 100m to 200m tonnes, or 15-30 per cent of total capacity. Much stemmed from some 150m tonnes of illegal or unauthorised capacity, equivalent to the steel industries of Japan and South Korea combined.

伍特克估計(jì)，中國(guó)鋼鐵行業(yè)的過(guò)剩產(chǎn)能介于1億至2億噸之間，占總產(chǎn)能的15%-30%。非法或未經(jīng)批準(zhǔn)的產(chǎn)能約為1.5億噸，相當(dāng)于日本和韓國(guó)的鋼鐵產(chǎn)能之和，是過(guò)剩產(chǎn)能的一大來(lái)源。

Yu Yongding, one of China's leading economists, has raised similar concerns. In a speech this week, he said there was evidence of waste in some of the spending and warned China could face “very large inflation pressure in the future”.

中國(guó)知名經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家余永定表達(dá)了同樣的擔(dān)憂。他在本周發(fā)表的一次演講中表示，部分開支存在浪費(fèi)現(xiàn)象。他警告，中國(guó)未來(lái)可能面臨“很大的通脹壓力”。

譯者/何黎