伯南克：短期內(nèi)不會(huì)加息

US interest rates would remain at exceptionally low levels for an “extended period” in spite of the “nascent” economic recovery, Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve chairman, told Congress yesterday.

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席本•伯南克(Ben Bernanke)昨日告訴國(guó)會(huì)，美國(guó)利率在“一段長(zhǎng)時(shí)間內(nèi)”將保持在極低水平，盡管美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)“初步”復(fù)蘇。

Mr Bernanke painted a relatively gloomy picture of the economy, which is still struggling in the wake of the crisis, with high unemployment and a weak housing market. This meant inflationary pressures – the main driver of tighter monetary policy – were likely to remain “subdued”, he added.

伯南克描繪了一幅相對(duì)黯淡的經(jīng)濟(jì)景象：在危機(jī)過(guò)后，經(jīng)濟(jì)依然在艱難掙扎，失業(yè)率高企，住宅市場(chǎng)疲弱。他表示，這意味著通脹壓力（收緊貨幣政策的主要?jiǎng)右颍┛赡鼙３?ldquo;緩和”。

“The Federal Open Market Committee continues to anticipate that economic conditions – including low rates of resource utilisation, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations – are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period,” Mr Bernanke told the House financial services committee.

“聯(lián)邦公開(kāi)市場(chǎng)委員會(huì)(FOMC)仍然預(yù)期，根據(jù)經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)——包括資源利用率較低、通脹趨勢(shì)緩和、通脹預(yù)期穩(wěn)定——在一段長(zhǎng)時(shí)間內(nèi)，聯(lián)邦基金利率可能應(yīng)當(dāng)保持在極低水平，”伯南克向眾議院金融服務(wù)委員會(huì)表示。

Mr Bernanke's insistence that rate rises are still months away will damp fears that last week's increase in the discount rate – at which commercial banks can borrow emergency cash from the central bank – from 0.5 per cent to 0.75 per cent is a precursor to a swifter tightening of monetary policy.

伯南克堅(jiān)稱加息還是幾個(gè)月后的事，這將沖淡上周提高貼現(xiàn)率所引起的擔(dān)憂。當(dāng)時(shí)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)把貼現(xiàn)率從0.5%上調(diào)至0.75%，人們以為這是加快收緊貨幣政策的預(yù)兆。貼現(xiàn)率是商業(yè)銀行向美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)緊急貸款的利率。

Fed officials – including Mr Bernanke yesterday – have indicated that it was simply a move to unwind emergency liquidity measures put in place during the crisis, as a result of improving conditions in the financial markets – and not a tightening move. Economists at Goldman Sachs said it was “crystal clear” the Fed did not anticipate raising rates in the near future.

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員已經(jīng)表示，此舉不過(guò)是因?yàn)榻鹑谑袌?chǎng)形勢(shì)好轉(zhuǎn)，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)要退出在危機(jī)期間實(shí)施的緊急流動(dòng)性措施，而并不是一項(xiàng)緊縮行動(dòng)。昨日伯南克也作了同樣的表示。高盛(Goldman Sachs)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家表示，“十分清楚”，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)不打算在近期內(nèi)加息。

Nevertheless, the Fed this month began to lay out its vision for the sequence of measures it expects to take to shrink the money supply once the economic recovery is sufficiently strong. Although the economy grew at an annualised rate of 5.7 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2009, economists are expecting the pace of growth to slow over the course of the year. The Fed is expecting growth of 3 per cent to 3.5 per cent this year.

不過(guò)，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)本月已開(kāi)始展望，一旦經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇勢(shì)頭足夠穩(wěn)健，它準(zhǔn)備依次采取哪些措施來(lái)收緊貨幣供應(yīng)。盡管去年末季美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)以年率計(jì)算增長(zhǎng)了5.7%，但經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)計(jì)今年美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)將趨緩。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)目前預(yù)計(jì)，今年經(jīng)濟(jì)將增長(zhǎng)3%至3.5%。