中國房地產(chǎn)市場是個泡沫嗎？

The global economic recovery has drawn support from a swift rebound in China. Now, investors and economists wonder whether a bursting Chinese property bubble could put China's economy in a bind.
中國經(jīng)濟迅速反彈支撐了全球經(jīng)濟復蘇。如今，投資者和經(jīng)濟學家們都想知道，中國房地產(chǎn)泡沫一旦破裂，會不會讓中國經(jīng)濟陷入困境。

Over the past week, China's cabinet has announced measures aimed at cracking down on property speculators, including tougher down-payment requirements for second and third homes. This comes after China reported an 11.7% rise in urban home prices last month from a year earlier, its fastest gain in five years.
過去一周，中國國務院宣布了打擊房地產(chǎn)投機的“國十條”，包括為二套房和三套房設定更高的首付比例。這一舉措出臺之前，中國宣布上個月城市房價同比上漲11.7%，為五年來最大同比漲幅。

'This is the critical policy point that finally cracks the Chinese property market,' declared Morgan Stanley China strategist Jerry Lou.
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)中國市場策略師婁岡(Jerry Lou)說，這是至關重要的政策切入點，最終給了中國房地產(chǎn)市場一擊。

All this could be seen as bolstering the case for short-seller James Chanos. The name of Mr. Chanos's $6 billion hedge fund, Kynikos Associates LP, means 'cynic' in Greek-appropriate since the New York-based money manager earlier this year made himself the world's best-known cynic when it comes to China's growth story.
這一切可以看作是支持了做空大師查諾斯(James Chanos)的觀點。查諾斯的對沖基金Kynikos Associates LP規(guī)模為60億美元，基金的名字在希臘語中意思是“憤世嫉俗”──這個意思很貼切，因為這位紐約資本經(jīng)營者今年早些時候憑借對中國經(jīng)濟增長方面的論斷成為全球知名的憤世嫉俗者。

'What we're talking about is a world-class, if not the, world-class property bubble,' Mr. Chanos said in an interview with Charlie Rose, comparing conditions in Chinese cities to Dubai and Miami. He predicts the bubble will begin to unravel later this year.
查諾斯接受著名電視節(jié)目主持人查理•羅斯(Charlie Rose)采訪時說，我們所說的是一次世界級的房地產(chǎn)泡沫，如果算不上世界最大的房地產(chǎn)泡沫的話。他將中國各大城市的狀況比作迪拜和邁阿密。他預計中國的泡沫將在今年晚些時候開始破裂。

Mr. Chanos argues that China's lending spree during the financial crisis has pumped too much money into real estate, and that housing prices have surpassed affordability.
查諾斯認為，中國在金融危機期間的放貸狂潮向房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)注入了過多資金，房價已經(jīng)超過人們的承受能力。

Among the counter-arguments: China's growing wealth feeds a long-term demand to upgrade the country's housing stock, and regulators put a tight cap on loan-to-value ratios, limiting the downside of any bubble. Some note that China's government, using measures such as those announced in the last week, has long avoided a crash in housing prices.
與之相對的論點包括：中國的有錢人越來越多，助長了改善住房的長期需求，同時監(jiān)管機構嚴控貸款成數(shù)，限制了泡沫的負面影響。一些人指出，中國政府利用種種措施（諸如上周宣布的），長期以來避免了房價暴跌。

Those inclined to favor Mr. Chanos's analysis-or who at least believe that some kind of correction is likely-could try to emulate his strategy. He is betting on a decline in the price of Hong Kong-listed Chinese property developers and other companies linked to China's property market, such as those exporting cement and copper to China.
如果贊同查諾斯的分析──或是至少相信有可能出現(xiàn)某種程度的調整──可以試試仿效他的策略。查諾斯正在做空在香港上市的中國房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商以及與中國房市有關的其他公司，比如向中國出口水泥和銅的公司。

However, he hasn't specified company names and didn't reply to a request for information on his positions.
不過，查諾斯沒有透露具體的公司名稱，也沒有回應提供頭寸信息的要求。

Below are three companies that reflect exposure to the China property story. All three trade in Hong Kong, making them accessible to international investors. There's no evidence that Mr. Chanos has a position in any of them. But those who believe China's property market is heading for further trouble might consider shunning them from their portfolios, or taking a short position on them-that is, selling borrowed shares with a view to buying them back at a lower price. (Of course, those who take the opposite view might look for opportunities to pick them up on the cheap.)
以下三家公司與中國房地產(chǎn)市場息息相關。三家公司均在香港上市，可供外國投資者交易。沒有證據(jù)顯示查諾斯擁有任何一家公司的頭寸。不過認為中國房產(chǎn)市場將步入困境者可以考慮避免在投資組合中包括這些公司，或者做空它們──即出售借來的股份以在更低的價位買回。（當然，持相反看法的人或許可以尋求趁低吸納的機會。）

Evergrande Real Estate Group Ltd. is a highly indebted company with broad market exposure and aggressive, expansion-minded management, qualities that make it vulnerable to an earnings shortfall.
恒大地產(chǎn)集團有限公司(Evergrande Real Estate Group Ltd.)：這是一家擁有高負債、寬敞口的公司，風格激進，強調擴張。這些特點使它很容易出現(xiàn)利潤短缺。

Evergrande continued its rapid expansion last year, growing its land bank by 30%. It had a difficult time bringing its Nov. 2009 initial public offering to market, and since listing, its shares have dropped by about a third. It's also gone back to the capital markets quickly for more cash, paying a hefty 13% interest rate on $1.35 billion of U.S. dollar bonds issued in January and April this year that come due in 2015. Its shares trade at 40.4 times 2009 earnings and 5.9 times 2010 expected earnings, a wide gap indicating the volatility of its earnings stream.
恒大地產(chǎn)在去年繼續(xù)快速擴張，土地儲備數(shù)量增長30%。2009年11月舉行首次公開募股時遭遇不順，而自上市以來，其股價已經(jīng)跌去約三分之一。后來它很快又回到資本市場籌集更多現(xiàn)金，在今年1月份和4月份發(fā)行了13.5億美元的美元債券，債券到期時間在2015年，利率高達13%。相對于2009年利潤的市盈率為40.4倍，相對于2010年預期利潤的市盈率為5.9倍，在這個巨大的差別中，恒大地產(chǎn)利潤的波動性可見一斑。

Agile Property Holdings Ltd. is a play on Hainan, a free-wheeling, tropical island off China's southern coast that is in many ways China's Miami.
雅居樂地產(chǎn)控股有限公司(Agile Property Holdings Ltd)：海南題材的體現(xiàn)者。海南是中國南方一個生活閑散的熱帶島嶼，從很多方面來看都可以說是中國版的邁阿密。

A lush environment and nice beaches make it a playground for new-money Chinese and a prime target for speculators betting on luxury properties. In March's property price data, two cities in Hainan, Sanya and Haikou, set the fastest pace, rising 53.9% and 52.1% respectively. The Chinese government helped spark the speculative fever by laying out plans in January to build Hainan into an international tourist destination.
草木蔥蘢的環(huán)境和宜人的海灘，使海南成為了中國新富階層的樂土和豪宅炒客的首選目標。3月份數(shù)據(jù)顯示，海南三亞和海口的房價漲幅為全國最高，分別達到53.9%和52.1%。中國政府在1月份出臺規(guī)劃，要把海南建成國際旅游島，一定程度上起到了引燃投機浪潮的作用。

Agile has close to 30% of its landbank and 2010 contracted sale tied up in a single project, Hainan Clearwater Bay, according to Royal Bank of Scotland analysts, tying Agile's fortunes closely to Hainan's fate. Its shares are trading at 15.1 times 2009 actual earnings and 9.8 times 2010 expected earnings.
蘇格蘭皇家銀行(Royal Bank of Scotland)的分析師們表示，雅樂居的土地儲備和2010年預售合同中，有30%都同一個項目有關，即海南清水灣。這讓雅樂居的命運同海南的命運緊密地聯(lián)系在一起。雅樂居相對于2009年實際利潤的市盈率是15.1倍，相對于2010年預期利潤的市盈率為9.8倍。

Fueling much of the boom in property prices has been easy money from Chinese state lenders. China's government pushed banks to lend record volumes of credit during the global financial crisis to keep the economy moving, some of which could go bad in a property crisis.
房價上漲在很大程度上是中國國有銀行的充裕資金造成的。在全球金融危機期間，中國政府推動銀行發(fā)放了規(guī)模空前的貸款，以保持經(jīng)濟持續(xù)運轉。如果房地產(chǎn)市場發(fā)生危機，一部分貸款有可能淪為壞賬。

China Construction Bank Corp. is the country's top mortgage lender and a major lender to infrastructure projects. Its residential mortgage book grew 41.4% last year.
中國建設銀行(China Construction Bank Corp.)：中國最大的抵押貸款商，也是基礎設施領域的一個重要貸款人。去年其住房抵押貸款規(guī)模增長了41.4%。

Of the 1.54 trillion yuan ($225.61 billion) in infrastructure loans on its books, 351 billion yuan were made in 2009. Both loan categories could come under stress if there is weakness in the property sector and borrowers have trouble repaying. Many local governments and their investment arms depend heavily on land sales for revenue and could default on loans if that income stream dries up. A deteriorating balance sheet could be enough to offset the earnings boost that CCB and other Chinese banks enjoy from a central bank-mandated spread between lending and deposit rates. Its shares trade at 11.1 times 2009 earnings and 8.1 times 2010 expected earnings, roughly in line with peers.
建行資產(chǎn)負債表上1.54萬億元（合2,256.1億美元）的基礎設施貸款中，有3,510億元是在2009年發(fā)放的。如果樓市陷入疲軟、借款人發(fā)生還款困難，那么兩類貸款都有可能承受壓力。很多地方政府及其投資機構的收入嚴重依賴于土地銷售，如果這個收入來源陷入枯竭，它們的貸款就有可能發(fā)生違約。建行和其他中資銀行的資產(chǎn)負債表如果出現(xiàn)惡化，它們從央行強制規(guī)定的存貸款息差當中獲得的利潤增長，或許足以被完全抹去。建行相對于2009年利潤的市盈率為11.1倍，相對于2010年預期利潤的市盈率為8.1倍，與同行大體相當。