外國(guó)游客減少，紐約人責(zé)怪特朗普

For the first time in seven years, New York City officials expect the number of foreign visitors to decrease, a drop they attribute to the protectionist policies and rhetoric of President Trump — saying that those moves are scaring off many of the visitors who have helped fuel the city’s robust growth since the last recession.

七年來(lái)的頭一遭，紐約市官員預(yù)計(jì)到訪的外國(guó)游客人數(shù)將會(huì)減少。他們將下滑歸咎于特朗普的保護(hù)主義政策和措辭，聲稱這些舉動(dòng)嚇跑了很多游客，自從上次衰退以來(lái)，這些游客對(duì)紐約經(jīng)濟(jì)的強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)起到了推動(dòng)作用。

On Tuesday, the city’s tourism marketing agency, NYC & Company, plans to announce that its forecast for international visitors has turned from positive to negative since Mr. Trump was elected in November. The city now expects to draw 300,000 fewer foreigners this year than in 2016, when 12.7 million international visitors came, a decline that will cost businesses in the city that cater to tourists at least $600 million in sales, the agency estimates.

周二，紐約市旅游營(yíng)銷機(jī)構(gòu)NYC&Company計(jì)劃宣布，自從特朗普11月當(dāng)選以來(lái)，他們對(duì)國(guó)際游客的增長(zhǎng)率預(yù)測(cè)由正值變?yōu)榱素?fù)值。該機(jī)構(gòu)估計(jì)，今年到該市旅游的外國(guó)人將比2016年的1270萬(wàn)人減少30萬(wàn)，這種下滑將導(dǎo)致該城旅游企業(yè)的銷售額至少減少6億美元。

Fred Dixon, the chief executive of NYC & Company, said Mr. Trump’s statements and actions had changed perceptions about the hospitality of the United States just as prospective tourists are making vacation plans for 2017. “The Europeans start coming to New York around Easter and continue through summer,” Mr. Dixon said in an interview. “That’s when you’ll see the rhetoric out of Washington really having an impact on travel.”

NYC& Company的首席執(zhí)行官弗雷德·迪克森(Fred Dixon)說(shuō)，就在潛在游客為2017年的假期做規(guī)劃的時(shí)候，特朗普的言行改變了人們對(duì)美國(guó)熱情好客的看法。“歐洲人在復(fù)活節(jié)前后開(kāi)始前往紐約旅游，這個(gè)趨勢(shì)會(huì)持續(xù)整個(gè)夏天，”迪克森先生在接受采訪時(shí)說(shuō)。“到時(shí)候你就會(huì)看到華盛頓的言論對(duì)旅行的影響了。”

He said American tourism promoters were “just sort of holding our breath” in anticipation of a revision of Mr. Trump’s aborted plan to ban arrivals from seven mostly Muslim countries. “Regardless of the specifics, it’s pretty clear the message is going to be unwelcoming,”

Mr. Dixon said. 特朗普禁止來(lái)自七個(gè)以穆斯林為主的國(guó)家的人入境的計(jì)劃之前流產(chǎn)了，迪克森說(shuō)，美國(guó)旅游業(yè)推動(dòng)者“好像是在屏住呼吸”，等著特朗普頒布這個(gè)禁令的修訂版。“無(wú)論具體細(xì)節(jié)如何，這個(gè)信息都不會(huì)受到歡迎，這一點(diǎn)很清楚，”他說(shuō)道。

News reports about that plan, which could be released on Wednesday, could further dampen interest in visiting New York City, which is the most popular American destination for foreign tourists, Mr. Dixon said.

該計(jì)劃可能會(huì)在周三公布，相關(guān)新聞報(bào)道可能會(huì)進(jìn)一步打擊游客前往紐約市的積極性——紐約是外國(guó)游客最喜歡的美國(guó)旅游目的地，迪克森說(shuō)道。

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

白宮沒(méi)有立即回應(yīng)時(shí)報(bào)的置評(píng)請(qǐng)求。

The rest of the country is expected to see an even larger decline in foreign tourism over the next two years, said Adam Sacks, president of Tourism Economics, an international firm that forecasts travel trends for several cities in the United States, including New York. He said the annual number of foreign visitors to the United States could fall by 6.3 million between 2016 and 2018 because of reactions to Mr. Trump’s words and actions, such as pledges to pull out of international trade agreements.

為包括紐約在內(nèi)的幾個(gè)美國(guó)城市進(jìn)行旅行趨勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)的國(guó)際公司——旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)(Tourism Economics)的總裁亞當(dāng)·薩克斯(Adam Sacks)表示，在接下來(lái)的兩年里，美國(guó)其他地方的外國(guó)游客規(guī)模甚至?xí)霈F(xiàn)更大的降幅。他表示，在特朗普承諾退出國(guó)際貿(mào)易協(xié)議之類的言行影響下，美國(guó)的外國(guó)游客數(shù)量在2016年至2018年間每年可能會(huì)減少630萬(wàn)人。

“We’re going to be looking at a very challenging year for U.S. travel,” Mr. Sacks said.

“我們將面臨對(duì)美國(guó)旅游業(yè)非常具挑戰(zhàn)性的一年，”薩克斯說(shuō)。

He said indicators of interest in visiting the United States, including online searches for airline tickets and hotels, started dropping after the election. They dipped again after Mr. Trump’s inauguration and fell further after he signed an executive order on the travel ban, Mr. Sacks said.

他表示，包括上網(wǎng)搜索機(jī)票和酒店信息在內(nèi)的赴美旅游意愿指標(biāo)，在總統(tǒng)大選后都開(kāi)始下滑。薩克斯還提到，這些指標(biāo)在特朗普宣誓就職后再次下滑，在他簽署有關(guān)旅行禁令的政令后，更是進(jìn)一步下跌。

“The data are all showing a pretty dramatic shift in behavior and interest,” he said. “That certainly accelerated since the executive order.”

“所有數(shù)據(jù)都在顯示，人們的行為和興趣出現(xiàn)了劇烈的轉(zhuǎn)變，”他說(shuō)。“在那條政令出來(lái)之后，這種轉(zhuǎn)變無(wú)疑加快了。”

Mr. Sacks said his firm had a “solid track record” of forecasting tourism, but he added that there was less certainty in estimating what he called “Trump impacts.”

薩克斯稱他的公司在預(yù)測(cè)旅游業(yè)趨勢(shì)方面有“相當(dāng)不錯(cuò)的表現(xiàn)記錄”，但他也表示，在評(píng)估他所說(shuō)的“特朗普效應(yīng)”方面，把握相對(duì)較小。

ForwardKeys, a Spanish company that tracks travel, said that it saw an “immediate slump” in bookings of flights to the United States after the travel ban was announced, including a 13.6 percent drop in Western Europe.

追蹤旅游信息的西班牙公司ForwardKeys表示，在旅行禁令宣布之后，預(yù)定美國(guó)機(jī)票的人數(shù)“驟降”，其中西歐地區(qū)下降了13.6%。

To combat the perception of a less hospitable climate, NYC & Company plans to start replacing some of its advertising overseas with billboards that declare that the city is “Welcoming the World.” Mr. Dixon said the city was “doubling down on our welcome message.”

為改變將出現(xiàn)更加不好客環(huán)境的看法，NYC & Company計(jì)劃開(kāi)始更換它在海外的一些廣告，換成宣稱這個(gè)城市“歡迎四海游客”的廣告牌。迪克森表示，紐約在“雙倍加強(qiáng)我們的歡迎信息”。

Alicia Glen, the city’s deputy mayor for housing and economic development, said it was not New York City’s style to turn people away.

負(fù)責(zé)住房與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展事務(wù)的副市長(zhǎng)艾麗西亞·格倫(Alicia Glen)表示，將人們拒之門外不是紐約城的風(fēng)格。

“We’re a place that welcomes everybody,” Ms. Glen said. “It’s in our values and in our economic interest. We’ll keep reminding visitors what we stand for, so we can keep this both the most internationally visited and the safest city in America.”

“我們是一個(gè)歡迎所有人的地方，”格倫說(shuō)。“這是我們的價(jià)值觀，也是我們的經(jīng)濟(jì)利益所在。我們會(huì)持續(xù)提醒游客注意我們的立場(chǎng)，這樣才能讓這里繼續(xù)成為美國(guó)國(guó)際游客最多、最安全的城市。”

New York still expects a slight increase in tourism this year, but only because of an increase in domestic visitors, Mr. Dixon said. NYC & Company forecasts that the city will attract 61.7 million visitors, up from 60.7 million in 2016, with an increase of 1.3 million domestic visitors offsetting the decline of foreign travelers.

迪克森表示，紐約今年的游客人數(shù)依然有可能出現(xiàn)小幅上漲，但這是因?yàn)閲?guó)內(nèi)游客數(shù)量的增加。NYC & Company預(yù)計(jì)，相比于2016年的6070萬(wàn)，紐約2017年將吸引6170萬(wàn)國(guó)內(nèi)外游客，新增的130萬(wàn)國(guó)內(nèi)游客將抵消國(guó)外游客的減少。

Before Mr. Trump’s election, the city had been expecting an increase of 400,000 foreign visitors in 2017, Mr. Dixon said. That swing will be very costly to the city’s economy, he said, because foreign tourists stay longer and spend more freely than domestic tourists. On average, foreigners spend about $2,000 in the city, compared with about $500 for Americans.

迪克森表示，在特朗普當(dāng)選之前，這個(gè)城市預(yù)計(jì)在2017年將增加40萬(wàn)國(guó)外游客。他表示，這種變化對(duì)該城的經(jīng)濟(jì)而言代價(jià)慘重，因?yàn)橥鈬?guó)游客比國(guó)內(nèi)游客的停留時(shí)間更長(zhǎng)，花錢更大方。外國(guó)游客在這個(gè)城市的平均消費(fèi)是2000美元，相比之下美國(guó)游客為500美元。

“We were looking forward to a really strong 2017,” Mr. Dixon said. “Travel is a very precious commodity and people have choices. Once the vacation of 2017 is gone, you don’t get that back.”

“我們?cè)酒诖粋€(gè)表現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁的2017，”迪克森說(shuō)。“旅游是一種非常昂貴的商品，人們的選擇很多。一旦2017年假期過(guò)去，就再也回不來(lái)了。”