推銷未來：反制懷舊民族主義的唯一辦法

The easiest way to win votes these days is by selling the past. “Nostalgic nationalism”, as my FT colleague Gideon Rachman writes, unites Brexit’s “Take Back Control”, Donald Trump’s “Make America Great Again” and Vladimir Putin’s reassertion of Russian power. There’s only one viable counter-strategy, and French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron is trying it in this spring’s election: he is selling the future.

如今，推銷往昔成了贏得選票的最容易方式。正如我在英國《金融時報》的同事吉迪恩•拉赫曼(Gideon Rachman)所寫的，“懷舊民族主義”是一條主線，貫穿著英國退歐陣營的“拿回控制權(quán)”(Take Back Control)、唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的“讓美國再次偉大起來”(Make America Great Again)以及弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)重新宣示俄羅斯實力的努力。只有一種切實可行的反制策略，法國總統(tǒng)候選人埃馬紐埃爾•馬克龍(Emmanuel Macron)正在今春的選舉中嘗試這種策略：推銷未來。

The one guaranteed losing strategy nowadays is selling the present. Hillary Clinton and the UK’s Remain campaign against Brexit went down defending the status quo. Selling the present now probably works only in Germany, a country inoculated by its history against both nostalgic nationalism and utopianism. So Angela Merkel will run this autumn as the most reassuringly unchangeable figure imaginable: “Mutti” (Mummy). Everywhere else, you run either as the past or the future.

推銷當下已成為一種注定失敗的策略。希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)以及英國留歐陣營都因為捍衛(wèi)現(xiàn)狀而失敗。如今，推銷當下可能只在德國管用，這個國家被歷史接種了抵御懷舊民族主義和烏托邦主義的疫苗。因此，安格拉•默克爾(Angela Merkel)將以可想象到的最讓人放心的不變角色——“媽媽(Mutti)”——投入今秋的大選。而在其他所有地方，候選人不是假借過去之名，就是打著未來的旗號。

Selling the past is an age-old political strategy. Even in ancient Greece, radicals routinely promised a return to a golden age, the classicist Mary Beard writes in The Times Literary Supplement. Nostalgic nationalism always distorts history, but its appeal is visceral: we adults yearn to rewind the gruesome ageing process and go back in time. Nostalgic nationalism is also appealingly optimistic. Contrary to what pundits said, Trump’s campaign never lapsed into pessimism. He claimed that the present sucked but guaranteed a painless return to the good old days.

推銷往昔是一種古老的政治策略。古典學者瑪麗•比爾德(Mary Beard)在《泰晤士報文學增刊》(The Times Literary Supplement)上寫道，即便在古希臘，激進分子也經(jīng)常許諾帶領民眾回到昔日的黃金時代。懷舊民族主義總是歪曲歷史，但其吸引力源自人的本能：我們成年人渴望逆轉(zhuǎn)令人厭惡的衰老過程，回到過去的時光。懷舊民族主義也散發(fā)出一種誘人的樂觀情緒。與評論人士所言相反，特朗普的競選活動從未陷入悲觀。他宣稱當下糟糕透了，但他可以保證輕松回到昔日的美好時光。

Selling the past works best in the UK. Brits have an almost uniquely uncomplicated relationship with their own history, having had no revolution, civil war, dictatorship or invasion since 1688. Whereas the US had slavery at home, Brits performed their colonial atrocities far from domestic sight. Britons over 65 were raised on schoolbooks, comics and films about imperial conquest and Hitler’s Blitz; 64 per cent of them backed Brexit.

“推銷過去”在英國效果最好。英國人與本國歷史之間有一種近乎絕無僅有的簡單關系，自1688年以來英國沒有發(fā)生過革命、內(nèi)戰(zhàn)、獨裁或入侵。美國國內(nèi)曾實行奴隸制，而英國人在遠離國內(nèi)視線的地方進行殘暴的殖民統(tǒng)治。65歲以上的英國人是在描繪帝國征服和希特勒(Hitler)閃電戰(zhàn)的教科書、漫畫和電影的影響下長大的;他們中64%的人支持退歐。

But nostalgic nationalism suits France almost as well. There, as in Britain, the present often shrinks to the size of a pinhead. Most French political discourse revolves around a superior past. There’s the lost superpower status. There’s the semi-mythical figure of the small farmer. There’s the obsession with the trente glorieuses, the 30 supposedly glorious years of economic recovery from 1945. In short, the Front National’s declinist view of France has become the non-partisan standard. Now Marine Le Pen wants to bring back the French franc, while her opponents talk about “preserving” the Republic from her.

但懷舊民族主義幾乎同樣適用于法國。就像在英國一樣，在當今的法國，當下經(jīng)常小到不值一提。法國政治話語大部分圍繞這個國家輝煌的過去：已經(jīng)失去的超級大國地位;近乎神話般的小農(nóng)戶人物形象;對“黃金三十年”(Les Trente Glorieuses)——始于1945年的所謂30年輝煌的經(jīng)濟復蘇——的念念不忘。簡單地說，國民陣線(Front National)關于法國衰落的觀點已成為超黨派的標準。如今，馬琳•勒龐(Marine Le Pen)希望恢復法國法郎，而她的對手們談論著要從她手里“保住”法蘭西共和國。

In France, the past’s superiority is written into the political landscape. Because French leaders work in ancient Parisian palaces, they appear dwarfed by past titans. The problem afflicts all old European capitals. When Matteo Renzi worked in Florence’s Palazzo Medici as president of the province, he’d joke with tourists in his basic English: “Five hundred years ago, Lorenzo de’ Medici. Today, Matteo Renzi. This is the decadence of Florence!”

在法國，昔日的優(yōu)越性已被寫入政治地景。因為法國領導人在巴黎的古老宮殿里辦公，與過去的政治巨人相比，他們顯得相形見絀。這一問題困擾著歐洲所有的古都。當擔任佛羅倫薩省省長的馬泰奧•倫齊(Matteo Renzi)在佛羅倫薩的美第奇-里卡迪宮(Palazzo Medici Riccardi)辦公時，他曾用簡單的英語對游客開玩笑稱：“500年前，(站在這里的是)洛倫佐•德•麥第奇(Lorenzo de' Medici)。如今，(站在這里的是)馬泰奧•倫齊。這就是佛羅倫薩的墮落啊!”

But when Renzi decided to take over Italy, he presented himself as a futurist, recounts Giuliano da Empoli in his French biography Le Florentin. As Macron will know, this entails following a fixed set of rules.

但是，根據(jù)朱里亞諾•達恩波利(Giuliano da Empoli)在其法文傳記《佛羅倫薩人》(Le Florentin)中的描述，但當倫齊決定角逐意大利總理職務時，他把自己包裝成一名未來主義者。正如馬克龍將會明白的，這意味著必須遵循一套固定的規(guī)則。

First, because a successful politician embodies his own message, a futurist has to be young. Renzi became Italy’s youngest leader ever in 2014, just as his futurist role model Tony Blair was Britain’s youngest prime minister since 1812, and 39-year-old Macron would be France’s youngest leader since Napoleon. In an era when any political experience is considered disqualifying, young candidates emphasise their youth. Renzi, writes da Empoli, wore sneakers and jeans to meetings, poured an ice bucket over himself on TV, and always went by “Matteo” — a throwback to Blair’s famous first words to his cabinet: “Just call me Tony.”

首先，因為一個成功的政治人物要成為自己傳遞的信息的化身，所以，一個未來主義者必須年輕。2014年，倫齊成為意大利歷史上最年輕的領導人，正如其未來主義者榜樣托尼•布萊爾(Tony Blair)是1812年以來英國最年輕的首相，而39歲的馬克龍如果當選將成為自拿破侖(Napoleon)以來法國最年輕的領導人。在一個政治經(jīng)驗被視為有損任職資格的年代，年輕的候選人強調(diào)自己的年輕。達恩波利寫道，倫齊穿著運動鞋、牛仔褲去開會，在電視上進行冰桶挑戰(zhàn)，并且總喜歡被稱為“馬泰奧(Matteo)”——這讓人聯(lián)想起布萊爾對英國內(nèi)閣的那句著名開場白：“叫我托尼就行(Just call me Tony)。”

Second, the futurist runs against the past, starting with his own party. Blair, who saw history as a boring repository of failed policies, denigrated his party as “Old Labour”. Macron has started a whole new “movement” with the quintessentially futurist name En Marche! (On the march!). He has also dissed the national past by urging France to apologise for colonial crimes in Algeria.

第二，未來主義者與過去進行角力，首先是不客氣對待其所在政黨。把歷史視為枯燥的失敗政策存檔室的布萊爾，將自己所在的政黨貶稱為“老工黨(Old Labour)”。馬克龍發(fā)起了一場全新的“運動”，并為之取了一個典型的未來派名字“En Marche!(前進!)”。他還通過敦促法國向在阿爾及利亞犯下的殖民罪行道歉來鞭笞這個國家的歷史。

Third, the futurist must present himself as an enemy of the status quo, and therefore the main protagonist of the election. This is a prized title, a dynamic role. Hillary Clinton handed it to Trump. In France, Le Pen assumed she would get the title part, but Macron wants it for himself. You know you’re the main protagonist when other candidates start attacking you as a danger to the country. Last, of course, the futurist offers a glorious future. The model here is John F Kennedy’s promise in 1961 to put a man on the moon.

第三，未來主義者必須把自己包裝為現(xiàn)狀的敵人，這樣才能成為大選的主角。這是一個寶貴的頭銜，一個充滿活力的角色。希拉里將它拱手讓給了特朗普。在法國，勒龐自以為可以得到這一頭銜，但馬克龍也想為自己爭取。當其他候選人開始抨擊你給國家?guī)砦ｋU時，你就知道自己成了主角。當然，最后，未來主義者要展現(xiàn)一個輝煌的未來。這方面的楷模是1961年承諾將人類送上月球的約翰•F•肯尼迪(John F Kennedy)。

Younger people vote less than oldies, but the target market for futurists expands every year. If you’re French or British and aged under 50, you probably aren’t a political nostalgic. The second world war, empire and even the trente glorieuses seem like ancient history. You believe you live in just another ordinary midsized country.

雖然年輕人投票不如老年人積極，但未來主義者的目標市場每年都在擴大。如果你是不到50歲的法國人或英國人，你多半不會是一個政治懷舊主義者。二戰(zhàn)、帝國，甚至“黃金三十年”看起來像古代史。你相信自己只是生活在又一個中等規(guī)模的普通國家。

Macron hopes France’s presidential run-off will pit future against past. Twenty years to the week that Blair entered Downing Street on a beautiful futurist May dawn, Macron could walk into the Elysée. That instant, he downgrades from future to present.

馬克龍希望法國總統(tǒng)大選的最終對決是一場未來與過去的對抗。20年前，在五月一個屬于未來主義者的美麗清晨，布萊爾步入了唐寧街(Downing Street)，今天的馬克龍也可以踏入愛麗舍宮(Elysée)。在那一刻，他的專注點將從未來回到當下。