安倍“女性經(jīng)濟學”是空洞許諾嗎？

For those who have already decided that Japan’s “womenomics” movement is an empty promise, the Kanagawa Women’s Empowerment Support Group has plenty of ammunition.

對于那些認為日本“女性經(jīng)濟學”運動是一個空洞許諾的人，“神奈川女性的活躍支援團”(Kanagawa Women’s Empowerment Support Group)提供了充足的“彈藥”。

Its pink-toned website introduces a panel of movers and shakers aiming to promote female empowerment in Kanagawa prefecture in the coming year: 11 high-profile corporate leaders — and all 11 of them men.

該組織以粉色為基調(diào)的網(wǎng)站引入了一個由名人組成的專家組，目的是在未來一年促進神奈川縣的女性賦權(quán)。這個專家組包括11位知名企業(yè)領袖，這11人都是男性。

The all-male cast, pictured below the slogan “Women, increasingly taking on leadership roles”, fits with a theory that prime minister Shinzo Abe’s campaign to redress Japan’s ingrained gender inequality is stalled, disingenuous or was doomed from the start by a culture not yet ready to embrace that change.

這11人合照的上面是標語：“女性，越來越多地擔任領導角色”，這與下列看法相符：日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)發(fā)起的解決日本根深蒂固的性別不平等問題的努力一籌莫展、不真誠，或者因為日本文化尚未準備好接受這種變化而從一開始就注定失敗。

Problems with this Japanese initiative are not hard to spot. On Mr Abe’s watch, Japan has dropped to 111th place in the World Economic Forum’s national rankings of gender equality, with 10 of those places shed between 2015 and 2016. In its first year, a scheme offering cash to small companies promoting women to executive roles had just one application.

人們不難發(fā)現(xiàn)日本這項舉措的問題。在安倍晉三主政期間，日本在世界經(jīng)濟論壇(WEF)各國性別平等排行榜上的排名滑落至第111位，僅在2015年至2016年就下滑了10位。在該計劃實施的第一年，向小企業(yè)提供資金激勵、鼓勵其提拔女性擔任高管職位的計劃只收到了一份申請。

An early target, which predates Mr Abe’s administration but which he revived in 2013, was for women to occupy 30 per cent of all management positions by 2020. Not long after, and to avoid a humiliating miss, Mr Abe downgraded public- and private-sector targets to between 7 per cent and 15 per cent, while moving the deadline to 2021.

早先的一個目標(在安倍晉三上臺之前出爐、但他在2013年重提該目標)是到2020年女性將占到所有管理職位的30%。不久后，為了避免因達不到目標而丟失臉面，安倍晉三將公共和私營部門的目標下調(diào)至7%至15%，同時將截止期限推遲到2021年。

But while no one is playing down the setbacks, a number of Japan’s most accomplished female executives from across the business world strongly oppose any attempt to declare the project a failure. In a number of key areas, they say, the picture is significantly more encouraging than five years ago and gender equality measures stand an inc­reasingly good chance of being implemented via a broader assault on traditional working patterns.

但是，盡管沒有人淡化計劃受挫的事實，但日本商界多名最成功的女性高管強烈反對有人試圖宣布該項目失敗。她們表示，在很多重要領域，情況比5年前明顯更令入鼓舞，借助整改傳統(tǒng)工作模式的全面努力，性別平等措施得到落實的幾率越來越高。

For example, Mr Abe’s administration put efforts to encourage women into the workplace at the centre of Japan’s 2017 budget. The key measure — a reform of the system of dependent-spouse tax deduction — has long been pinpointed as a necessity for deeper progress. For years, Japanese families have been able to receive a generous tax deduction if the dependent spouse (the wife, in the overwhelming number of cases) earns less than ¥1.03m ($8,930) a year. In response, many women lowered their working ambitions, taking low-earning, part-time jobs. From this year, the limit will be raised to ¥1.5m a year.

例如，安倍晉三政府將鼓勵女性進入職場置于日本2017年預算的核心。關鍵措施(改革面向受撫養(yǎng)配偶的減稅制度)長期被確定為有必要取得更深層次進展。多年來，如果家里的受撫養(yǎng)配偶(絕大多數(shù)情況下為妻子)年收入不足103萬日元(合8930美元)，那么這個家庭將可以享受慷慨的減稅優(yōu)惠。作為回應，很多女性降低了自己的工作雄心，做著收入低的兼職工作。從今年開始，這個門檻將被調(diào)高到150萬日元。

There are those, including Kathy Matsui, Goldman Sachs chief Japan strategist, who say the change is not enough to affect a big enough number of families. “It was helpful, but not sufficient,” says Ms Matsui, who likens progress on womenomics to Japan’s slow but steady progress on corporate governance.

高盛(Goldman Sachs)首席日本策略師松井凱蒂(Kathy Matsui)等一些人表示，這項改革不足以影響足夠多的家庭。她表示：“它有用，但不夠。”她把女性經(jīng)濟學方面的進展與日本在公司治理方面緩慢但穩(wěn)定的進展相提并論。

Also, she adds, the pace is set to speed up. Japan’s shrinking labour force, which has seen the graduate job-to-applicant ratio hit a 26-year high of 1.43, implies that in the very near future companies will compete to attract and promote women to top positions.

她補充稱，速度將加快。日本勞動力人數(shù)日益縮減(目前大學畢業(yè)生工作與求職者之比達到1.43，為26年最高)意味著，在不久的將來，企業(yè)將競相吸引并提拔女性擔任最高職務。

“Gender equality is very contrary to the Japanese way of doing things but the maths does not add up on human capital. The jobs market is already tight and has become over-tight,” says Ms Matsui.

松井凱蒂表示：“性別平等與日本人的做事方法完全相悖，但從人力資本上說，數(shù)字合不攏。就業(yè)市場已經(jīng)偏緊，而且已變得過度緊張。”

“The rate of female participation in the labour force at 66 per cent is high and much higher than the 50 per cent it used to be, but we know that these are part-time jobs that do not give women a role in decision making and leadership,” she says. “But those sort of jobs don’t pop out of nowhere . . .  You need to build a pipeline.” She points out that, despite mockery of campaigns such as the Kanagawa Women's Empowerment Support Group, backing from male business leaders is critical.

“女性的勞動參與率為66%，這個水平相當高，遠遠高于以往的50%，但我們知道，這些都是兼職工作，沒有讓女性在決策制定和領導上扮演角色，”她表示，“但那些工作不會憑空出現(xiàn)……你需要鋪設管道。”她指出，盡管“神奈川女性的活躍支援團”之類的努力受到嘲笑，但來自男性商界領袖的支持是至關重要的。

Machiko Osawa, an expert on labour economics at Japan Women’s University, says there has been a substantial shift in attitudes: “In older companies where the average age of the employees is [higher], there is less desire to change but newer companies that want to expand globally are a very different situation,” says Prof Osawa.

日本女子大學(Japan Women’s University)勞動力經(jīng)濟學專家大澤真知子(Machiko Osawa)表示，人們的態(tài)度發(fā)生了重大變化：“在歷史比較悠久的公司，員工平均年齡較大，改革的愿望不那么強烈，但希望向全球擴張的較新公司完全不同，” 大澤真知子教授表示。

But she also stresses that the tight labour market alone is not enough to force companies to loosen the many forms of indirect discrimination that have defined Japan’s male-dominated executive workforce.

但她也強調(diào)，勞動力市場偏緊本身不足以迫使企業(yè)消除很多形式的間接歧視，這些歧視定義了日本高管職位由男性主導的局面。

Gender equality will come, she says, only when Japan develops a more liquid job market that would allow women to threaten to take their skills to other organisations.

她表示，只有在日本發(fā)展了一個更具流動性的就業(yè)市場、讓女性有底氣威脅要把她們的技能帶到其他組織之后，性別平等才會出現(xiàn)。

Broader changes in Japanese attitudes to work — particularly the growing distaste for punishingly long hours — chime directly with gender equality proponents’ demands for companies to find new ways of assessing employees’ work.

日本人工作態(tài)度的整體變化(特別是越來越不喜歡過長的工作時間)與性別平等倡導者的訴求相符，即企業(yè)要找到新的方法來評估員工的工作。

There is a momentum behind wider changes, says Miyuki Kashima, of BNY Mellon Asset Management Japan. “The macho thing in work culture is under pressure. It used to be cool to work to midnight, now it is very uncool. If you cap overtime hours, it makes more jobs available to women,” she says.

紐銀梅隆資產(chǎn)管理日本(BNY Mellon Asset Management Japan)的鹿島美由紀(Miyuki Kashima)表示，推動整體改革的動力出現(xiàn)了。她表示：“職場文化中的男性主導局面正受到壓力。過去工作到半夜是很酷的事情，如今它變得非常不時髦了。如果你限制加班時間，就會把更多工作讓給女性。”

The change to the tax law, she adds, may be the least important of changes under way in womenomics. She points out that 98 per cent of companies with at least 301 employees had complied with a law ordering them to produce a plan on how to promote women, despite the lack of penalties for failing to do so.

她補充稱，修改稅法可能是女性經(jīng)濟學方面最不重要的改革。她指出，在擁有至少301名員工的的企業(yè)中，有98%都遵守了一項要求它們制定計劃提拔女性的法律，盡管對于未能這么做的公司沒有懲罰措施。