為什么一些生產(chǎn)線在從中國回流英國？

Three years ago, on the London Tube, I ran into a chap I know, Tom Davies. I met him first in 2001 when I wrote about his new, eponymous company which made upmarket glasses frames. The business later grew from being so niche it was practically secret to having its own factory in China, shops across London and spots in 1,000 opticians worldwide.

3年前，我在倫敦地鐵遇上了一個認(rèn)識的人湯姆•戴維斯(Tom Davies)(見題圖)。我最早是在2001年遇到他的。那時我寫了有關(guān)他新創(chuàng)建的同名公司的文章。這家公司生產(chǎn)高檔眼鏡架。它太小眾了，簡直不為人知，后來發(fā)展壯大了，在中國有了自己的工廠，在倫敦有了門店，在全球1000家眼鏡店銷售。

It even gained me as a customer for its made-to-measure service, with my oversized head and lopsided ears — as well as celebrity clients, from Heston Blumenthal to Ed Sheeran.

這家公司甚至把我發(fā)展成了其定制服務(wù)的客戶(我的頭有點兒大，耳朵不太對稱)，還有一些名人客戶，包括赫斯頓•布魯門塔爾(Heston Blumenthal)和艾德•希蘭(Ed Sheeran)。

So, I asked back in 2014 as we strap-hung on the District Line, what Mr Davies’ business was up to? “Well,” he said, “I’m thinking of moving production from China to the UK. It’s not as cheap as it was, and Made in England would be a great sales point.”

所以，當(dāng)2014年我倆在區(qū)域線(District Line)拉住吊環(huán)站立時，我問他生意怎么樣?“很好”，他說，“我在考慮把生產(chǎn)線從中國搬到英國。那邊不像以前那么成本低了，再說‘英格蘭制造’(Made in England)將成為一個極好的賣點。”

He is now doing just that. Last week, I visited Mr Davies as builders were scrambling to finish converting a derelict factory in west London to which he and 30 staff are moving shortly, with 20 more to join later. He plans to have 30 per cent of manufacturing in the UK by the end of 2017, 70 per cent in three years.

目前他正在做這件事。上周，我去拜訪了戴維斯，建筑工人們正忙著改裝倫敦西部一處廢棄工廠。戴維斯和30名員工不久后將搬進去，未來還要進駐20人。他打算到2017年底讓英國產(chǎn)量占到30%，在3年內(nèi)提高至70%。

In a curious twist on the industrial history of recent decades, teams of Chinese staff are coming over to train British workers. It may seem almost a suicide mission on their part, but Mr Davies is not closing the Shenzhen factory, just no longer expanding it as the business grows.

幾個中國員工團隊將過來培訓(xùn)英國工人，成為最近幾十年工業(yè)歷史的吊詭一幕。對他們來說，這也許看上去像是一個自殺式任務(wù)，但戴維斯無意關(guān)閉深圳工廠，只是在業(yè)務(wù)增長時不再擴大該廠。

There has been much noise in Donald Trump’s US about bringing manufacturing back to developed countries, or “reshoring”. Is Mr Davies riding a fresh trend in the UK?

在唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的美國，讓制造業(yè)回到發(fā)達(dá)國家(或稱“回流”)的呼聲很響亮。戴維斯是否代表了英國的一種新趨勢?

I asked the China-Britain Business Council in London about other UK companies moving production from China. Remarkably, they had no record of any such thing. “It’s something businesses talk about, but it never seems to happen,” said an official. “Your guy may be a pioneer.”

我向倫敦的英中貿(mào)易協(xié)會(China-Britain Business Council)詢問了有關(guān)其他英國公司從中國遷回生產(chǎn)線的情況。值得注意的是，該協(xié)會沒有這種動向的記錄。“這是企業(yè)在談?wù)摰氖虑?，但似乎從未發(fā)生，”一名官員表示，“你認(rèn)識的人也許是一個先驅(qū)。”

The most surprising reason Mr Davies has for his move is economic. There may be an element of justifying his decision retrospectively, but he believes he can lower prices by making in Britain. Labour costs in China have risen. Many Chinese businesses I speak to are thinking beyond manufacturing in established cheaper bases like Vietnam and Bangladesh and are looking elsewhere.

戴維斯這么做的最令人吃驚的原因是經(jīng)濟上的。也許存在回過頭來為自己的決定找理由的因素，但他相信，他可以通過在英國生產(chǎn)來降低價格。中國的勞動力成本已升高。我與之交談過的許多中國企業(yè)不僅在考慮把生產(chǎn)線搬到越南和孟加拉國等成熟的更廉價基地，而是把目光投向其他地區(qū)。

“The Shenzhen average [annual salary] in 2007 was £2,500,” said Mr Davies. “It’s now £8,000, and I have key people earning up to £55,000. Our car park is now full of workers’ cars.”

“2007年深圳平均(年工資)是2500英鎊，”戴維斯說，“現(xiàn)在是8000英鎊。我的關(guān)鍵員工每年賺5.5萬英鎊。現(xiàn)在，我們的停車場上停滿了工人的車。”

The differential in premises costs is also not startling. His Shenzhen plant costs £2 per sq ft, but would go beyond £4 if he renewed his lease. His London cost is £8 per sq ft, although this factory also needed a £600,000 refurb.

經(jīng)營場所成本的差距也不再令人震驚。在他的深圳工廠，每平方英尺的成本是2英鎊，但如果他續(xù)簽租約，成本將升到4英鎊以上。在他的倫敦廠房，每平方英尺的成本是8英鎊，盡管廠房翻新還需要60萬英鎊。

Logistics costs will be lower making glasses in London. But the biggest saving will be because technology in his industry has moved on. A computer-controlled machine tool once costing £250,000 is now a twentieth of that, he says — ironically, from Chinese makers. The software is also cheaper and easier to use. All this means he needs fewer staff, Chinese or British, than he used to.

在倫敦生產(chǎn)眼鏡的物流成本將會更低。但是，對成本節(jié)省貢獻最大的因素在于行業(yè)的技術(shù)進步。他介紹說，數(shù)控機床曾賣到25萬英鎊，而現(xiàn)在的價格僅為原來的5%——諷刺的是這些機床來自中國廠商。軟件也更便宜，更容易使用。這一切意味著，他需要的員工(無論中國員工還是英國員工)比以往更少。

The Made in England cachet, Mr Davies believes, will help in a business that has one foot in the fashion world. “The Americans will love it, and it could also help us in the Far East. In China itself, customers love things not made in China.”

戴維斯認(rèn)為，“英格蘭制造”的威望將有助于一家涉足時尚領(lǐng)域的企業(yè)。“美國人將喜歡這個標(biāo)簽，在遠(yuǎn)東，這可能也會對我們有利。在中國，顧客喜歡不在國內(nèi)制造的東西。”

Finally, Mr Davies told me, he is tired, as the boss and head designer, of travelling. “I’m 42 now, I live in perpetual jet lag and I’ve had enough of it.” He expects the Shenzhen factory to be a self-running satellite.

最后，戴維斯告訴我，作為老板和首席設(shè)計師，他已厭倦了旅行。“今年我42歲了，沒完沒了地在倒時差，有點受夠了。”他期望深圳工廠成為一家自主經(jīng)營的衛(wèi)星企業(yè)。

This initiative is a mere pixel in a panorama. I wonder, though, if it became a trend, whether this would be good or bad for China?

在國際經(jīng)濟全景圖中，此舉只是一個像素。然而我納悶的是，如果這成為一種趨勢，那它對中國是好還是壞呢?

My guess is that it would be good. Younger Chinese people are tiring of being the world’s workshop. And judging by the quality and design of Chinese consumer technology I see, they are ready to become, like Japan and South Korea, originators rather than subcontractors.

我猜，這對中國將是好事。中國的年輕人開始厭倦充當(dāng)世界工廠。而從我見到的中國消費科技的質(zhì)量和設(shè)計來衡量，他們已準(zhǔn)備好成為像日本和韓國那樣的發(fā)起人，而非承包商。

An upgrade to China 2.0, a confident, developed country making its own, globally desired products would have its problems, but it would ultimately be a progressive, stabilising development.

升級至中國2.0版(一個自信的發(fā)達(dá)國家，生產(chǎn)自主產(chǎn)權(quán)的、全球追逐的產(chǎn)品)將有新的問題，但最終而言，那將是一個進步的、有利于穩(wěn)定的動向。