別讓全球復(fù)蘇夭折

Sometimes a few fractions of one percentage point make all the difference.

有的時(shí)候，差幾個(gè)基點(diǎn)，一切都不同了。

A year ago the International Monetary Fund predicted the global economy would grow at an average annual rate of 3.65 per cent between 2017 and 2021. This October it raised that forecast fractionally to 3.7 per cent. Almost no change in the most authoritative global economic forecast has, however, coincided with a sea change in optimism.

一年前，國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(IMF)預(yù)計(jì)，從2017年到2021年，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)將會(huì)以年均3.65%的速度增長(zhǎng)。今年10月，它將預(yù)測(cè)微幅提升至3.7%。這幾乎相當(dāng)于沒(méi)變化，然而自從這個(gè)最具權(quán)威性的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)做出這一微調(diào)以來(lái)，情緒的樂(lè)觀度出現(xiàn)了巨大變化。

Lamenting a “mediocre” world outlook in late 2016, Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF, now talks of a period when countries must not “let a good recovery go to waste”.

IMF總裁克里斯蒂娜•拉加德(Christine Lagarde)曾在2016年末哀嘆世界的前景多么“平庸”，現(xiàn)在她則談起眼下這個(gè)階段各國(guó)不能“浪費(fèi)一場(chǎng)可喜的復(fù)蘇”。

The change in mood is understand­able. For the first year since 2010, all the leading economies are expected to ex­pand in 2017, with none in recession. This is a feat achieved for only a few years in the mid-2000s, 1997 and 1987.

這種情緒改變是可以理解的。預(yù)計(jì)2017年所有的領(lǐng)先經(jīng)濟(jì)體都將實(shí)現(xiàn)擴(kuò)張，沒(méi)有一個(gè)陷入衰退，這是2010年以來(lái)的首次。之前只有2000年代中期的幾年、1997年和1987年取得了這樣的成就。

Many leading economies have also performed better than expected, particularly the eurozone, China and Japan. With confidence sky high, Paul Sheard, chief economist at S&P Global, the rating agency, says US president Donald Trump “has un­leashed animal spirits”. Mr Trump has also promised to supply the US with “rocket fuel” on an already decent growth rate by means of tax cuts and Jay Powell, the new Federal Reserve chairman, is highly unlikely to take away the punch bowl soon.

許多領(lǐng)先經(jīng)濟(jì)體的表現(xiàn)也好于預(yù)期，尤其是歐元區(qū)、中國(guó)和日本。隨著信心高漲，評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)標(biāo)普全球評(píng)級(jí)(S&P Global)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家保羅•希爾德(Paul Sheard)表示，美國(guó)總統(tǒng)唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)“釋放了動(dòng)物精神”。特朗普還承諾通過(guò)減稅手段為美國(guó)提供“一飛沖天的燃料”，讓業(yè)已不錯(cuò)的增長(zhǎng)率沖得更高，而美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Fed)下一任主席杰伊•鮑威爾(Jay Powell)也極不可能很快撤下“賓治盆”(punch bowl，一種裝賓治酒的器皿，常常出現(xiàn)在狂歡派對(duì)上——譯者注)。

However, the reality behind the up­beat new mood in the global economy is more complicated. Central bankers have certainly played a large part by continuing to find ways over the past decade to stimulate their economies against the headwinds of the global financial crisis.

然而，在彌漫于全球經(jīng)濟(jì)中的這種新的樂(lè)觀情緒背后，現(xiàn)實(shí)狀況是更為復(fù)雜的。各國(guó)央行行長(zhǎng)們當(dāng)然出了很大力，他們?cè)谶^(guò)去十年中不斷地設(shè)法刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)，以抵擋全球金融危機(jī)的逆風(fēng)。

The European Central Bank, in particular, is now fairly certain that its efforts to print money, buy assets and keep interest rates in negative territory is persuading people to borrow and spend, and companies to invest. European unemployment is following the downward trajectory of that in the US and Japan, albeit around five years behind.

尤其是歐洲央行(ECB)，現(xiàn)在基本可以肯定，該行印鈔、購(gòu)買(mǎi)資產(chǎn)以及維持負(fù)利率的努力，說(shuō)服了人們?nèi)ソ栀J和消費(fèi)，也說(shuō)服了企業(yè)去投資。歐洲失業(yè)率正在跟隨美國(guó)和日本的下滑軌跡，盡管落后5年左右。

Even Mario Draghi, ECB president, is sounding more upbeat. “The economic ex­­pansion in the euro area continues to be solid and broad-based . . . [and] the latest data and survey results point to un­abated growth momentum in the second half of this year,” he said, presenting the central bank’s latest monetary policy decision in October.

就連歐洲央行行長(zhǎng)馬里奧•德拉吉(Mario Draghi)的語(yǔ)氣都樂(lè)觀了起來(lái)。今年10月，在公布?xì)W洲央行最新的貨幣政策決定時(shí)，他說(shuō)：“歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)繼續(xù)堅(jiān)實(shí)而全面地?cái)U(kuò)張……(而且)最新數(shù)據(jù)和調(diào)查結(jié)果顯示今年下半年增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭不減。”

A similar story can be told in Japan, while China’s monetary authorities have ensured its economy continues to expand at a rapid, but controlled pace.

日本也是類(lèi)似情況，同時(shí)中國(guó)貨幣當(dāng)局通過(guò)努力也實(shí)現(xiàn)了經(jīng)濟(jì)繼續(xù)快速平穩(wěn)增長(zhǎng)。

Most governments, too, have eased their austerity programmes, giving more breathing space now that public finances have improved significantly in advanced economies.

鑒于發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的公共財(cái)政有了顯著改善，大多數(shù)國(guó)家也放松了財(cái)政緊縮項(xiàng)目，這帶來(lái)了更多的喘息空間。

Yet the main reason for improved sentiment is that the yearly cycle of over-optimistic forecasts in advanced and emerging economies, which had dogged the global economy since 2010, has been broken.

然而，情緒改善的主要原因是，自2010年以來(lái)一直困擾全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的如下規(guī)律被打破：對(duì)發(fā)達(dá)和新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體的年度預(yù)測(cè)總是過(guò)于樂(lè)觀。

The absence of significant downgrades to forecasts has been refreshing.

預(yù)測(cè)數(shù)字沒(méi)有重大下調(diào)實(shí)在令人暢快。

Never keen to let complacency creep in, economists have a habit of pouring cold water on optimism and those at the UK’s National Institute of Economic and Social Research are no exception. In their quarterly assessment of the global economy, published in early November, they concede that “recent months have been characterised by an unusually fav­ourable combination of global economic and financial dev­elopments”. Yet they warn that companies and households should not let the good news go to their heads. “Global growth this year and next seems likely to be as good as it gets,” they warn.

從不愿掉以輕心的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們習(xí)慣于給樂(lè)觀看法澆冷水，英國(guó)國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)研究院(National Institute of Economic and Social Research)的那些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家也不例外。他們?cè)诮衲?1月初發(fā)表的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)季度評(píng)估中承認(rèn)，“近月來(lái)，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)與金融動(dòng)向都出乎意料地可喜”。 但他們警告說(shuō)，企業(yè)和家庭不應(yīng)該被這個(gè)好消息沖昏頭腦。他們告誡道：“全球增長(zhǎng)看上去可能會(huì)在今明兩年見(jiàn)頂。”

There are concerns that asset markets in general have become so highly valued that a fall is likely soon. Any faltering in markets could exacerbate problems linked to $135tn of global debts, the IMF cautioned in October. “While the waters seem calm, vulnerabilities are building under the surface [and] if left unattended, these could derail the global recovery,” said Tobias Adrian, of the IMF’s financial stability watchdog.

有人擔(dān)心，整個(gè)資產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的估值已經(jīng)嚴(yán)重虛高，可能很快就會(huì)出現(xiàn)價(jià)格下跌。今年10月，IMF警告稱(chēng)，市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)的任何動(dòng)蕩，都可能加劇與135萬(wàn)億美元全球債務(wù)相關(guān)的問(wèn)題。IMF負(fù)責(zé)金融穩(wěn)定事務(wù)的部門(mén)負(fù)責(zé)人托比亞斯•阿德里安(Tobias Adrian)表示：“盡管水面看上去很平靜，但問(wèn)題正在水面之下醞釀，(而)如果坐視不管，這些問(wèn)題可能會(huì)毀掉全球復(fù)蘇。”

In the US, too, the duration of the up­swing has reached a post-second world war record and experience suggests the risks of a recession increase materially with the length of the previous cycle.

在美國(guó)，經(jīng)濟(jì)上行趨勢(shì)持續(xù)的時(shí)間也已創(chuàng)下二戰(zhàn)后的紀(jì)錄，經(jīng)驗(yàn)表明，發(fā)生衰退的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)隨著之前那個(gè)周期的長(zhǎng)度增加而大大提高。

Much of the growth has represented a recovery from the global financial and economic crisis of 2007-09, but it has become clear that the und­erlying performance of the global economy will be weaker in future than before the crisis.

很大一部分增長(zhǎng)是彌補(bǔ)了經(jīng)濟(jì)在2007年至2009年的全球金融和經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)中的損失，但眼下已經(jīng)很清楚的是，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)未來(lái)的基礎(chǔ)表現(xiàn)將達(dá)不到危機(jī)之前的水平。

Among large economies, apart from in India, estimates of the potential for economic progress have been scaled back alongside evidence that productivity growth — the ability of economies to improve their efficiency in turning labour, land and capital into output — has slowed across the world.

除印度外的各大型經(jīng)濟(jì)體下調(diào)了對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)潛力的估測(cè)，同時(shí)有證據(jù)表明，全球生產(chǎn)率增長(zhǎng)(經(jīng)濟(jì)體提高把勞動(dòng)力、土地和資本轉(zhuǎn)化為產(chǎn)出的效率的能力)放緩。

Politics is also rearing its ugly head as a threat to global economic progress. While Mr Trump’s “America First” language has not yet materialised as a significant slide towards protectionism, the risks of global trade wars are higher than ever with tensions in the negotiations over the North American Free Trade Agreement, Brexit talks under severe strain, and the US withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact. World trade growth has been lacklustre and has not convincingly broken out of its low growth phase since the global financial crisis.

政治方面的不詳動(dòng)向也開(kāi)始對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)構(gòu)成威脅。盡管特朗普的“美國(guó)優(yōu)先”(America First)論調(diào)尚未落實(shí)為朝著保護(hù)主義方向的嚴(yán)重倒退，但眼下全球貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)高于以往任何時(shí)候，此外，圍繞北美自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定(NAFTA)的談判氣氛緊張，英國(guó)退歐談判無(wú)比艱難，美國(guó)還退出了《跨太平洋伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)議》(TPP)。全球貿(mào)易增長(zhǎng)一直乏力，而且一直無(wú)法理直氣壯地宣告已經(jīng)走出全球金融危機(jī)以來(lái)的低增長(zhǎng)階段。

There is also little sign that many countries are using the opportunities of the recovery to reform their economies instead of simply enjoying the up­swing. They have yet to heed Ms Lagarde’s call for countries to engage in “cutting red tape, increasing spending on research and development, and investing in infrastructure”.

此外，目前幾乎沒(méi)有跡象表明，很多國(guó)家在利用這次復(fù)蘇的機(jī)會(huì)改革其經(jīng)濟(jì)、而不是僅僅在享受增長(zhǎng)行情。它們尚未聽(tīng)從拉加德的勸告，采取行動(dòng)“減少行政上的繁文縟節(jié)、擴(kuò)大研發(fā)支出并投資基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施”。

The test of the global economy will be in the longevity and strength of the current buoyant period. Although forecasts have not yet been revised much higher, the clouds have lifted for the time being. Mostly, countries are simply happy to enjoy a period of stability and greater optimism after a dismal decade. That is fine for 2017, but soon the hard work in prolonging the recovery and protecting the world against a future downturn must begin in earnest.

對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的考驗(yàn)將在于目前這輪經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮期的長(zhǎng)度和強(qiáng)度。盡管經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)上調(diào)的幅度還不高，但目前陰云已消散?；旧?，各國(guó)在度過(guò)慘淡的10年后，正開(kāi)心地享受一段穩(wěn)定和更加樂(lè)觀的時(shí)期。2017年先享受一下沒(méi)關(guān)系，但要讓這輪復(fù)蘇持續(xù)更久、要防止世界經(jīng)濟(jì)未來(lái)陷入一場(chǎng)低迷，我們很快就必須真正開(kāi)始啃硬骨頭了。