2018年全球大事預測

Will Theresa May remain prime minister in 2018?

2018年特里薩•梅(Theresa May)會繼續(xù)擔任英國首相嗎?

Yes. Mrs May lost most of her authority with the bungled snap election. But the past few months have been kinder. Sealing a Brexit divorce deal has ensured short-term job security. So until Brexit is formally complete in 2019, or an appealing alternative emerges, the Conservative party will keep her where she is. Remainers and Leavers alike wish to avoid a civil war that would be sparked by moving against her. What was thought to be an unsustainable position is proving surprisingly sustainable.

會。梅因為失算的提前選舉而失去了大部分權威。但過去幾個月情況對她較為有利。敲定退歐離婚協(xié)議，確保了她的飯碗短期無憂。因此直到2019年英國退歐正式完成(或者另一種更吸引人的替代方案出現(xiàn))前，保守黨將讓她繼續(xù)坐在首相位置上。留歐派和退歐派都希望避免因反對她而引發(fā)內(nèi)戰(zhàn)。事實將證明，曾經(jīng)被人們認為是坐不長的位置，意外地能夠坐久。

Sebastian Payne

塞巴斯蒂安•佩恩(Sebastian Payne)

Will the UK economy be the slowest-growing in the G7?

英國會是七國集團(G7)中經(jīng)濟增長最慢的國家嗎?

No. This is possible, of course, but with luck, Mrs May has at least now ensured that the UK is not going to tumble over a “no deal” cliff in 2019. In December 2017, Consensus Forecasts’ prediction for the UK was of 1.5 per cent growth in 2018. Its forecasts for Japan and Italy were even lower, at 1.3 per cent. So the chances that the UK will have the slowest-growing economy in the G7 next year should be around one in four.

不會。當然，這種情況可能發(fā)生，但是只要運氣不是太差，梅眼下至少可以確保英國經(jīng)濟不會在2019年因掉落“無協(xié)議”懸崖而急劇下滑。2017年12月，“共識預測”(Consensus Forecasts)預測2018年英國將增長1.5%。該機構對日本和意大利的預測值更低，為1.3%。因此英國明年成為G7中經(jīng)濟增長最慢國家的幾率應該在四分之一左右。

Martin Wolf

馬丁•沃爾夫(Martin Wolf)

Will Emmanuel Macron secure a commitment from German chancellor Angela Merkel on a eurozone budget?

埃馬紐埃爾•馬克龍(Emmanuel Macron)會得到德國總理安格拉•默克爾(Angela Merkel)對歐元區(qū)預算的承諾嗎?

No. Ms Merkel may accept a small eurozone investment fund, but it will fall short of the French president’s ambitions. Mr Macron wants a “road map” to a budget equivalent to several percentage points of eurozone output, supervised by a finance minister, all to absorb economic shocks. Ms Merkel is inclined to acquiesce, but she has emerged politically weakened from federal elections and will be unable to impose such a decision on her largely sceptical public.

不會。默克爾可能會接受一支規(guī)模較小的歐元區(qū)投資基金，但這滿足不了這位法國總統(tǒng)的雄心。馬克龍想要的是“路線圖”，指明如何實現(xiàn)一份相當于歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)出一定百分點的預算，由一名財政部長監(jiān)督，完全用于緩沖經(jīng)濟震蕩。默克爾想要答應，但她在聯(lián)邦選舉后政治地位受到削弱，因此無法勉強基本上持懷疑態(tài)度的德國民眾接受這樣一個決定。

Anne-Sylvaine Chassany

安妮-西爾萬•沙薩尼(Anne-Sylvaine Chassany)

Will the Democrats take back the majority in the midterm election in the US House of Representatives?

民主黨能在中期選舉中重新奪回美國眾議院多數(shù)黨地位嗎?

Yes — by an eyelash. Democrats will need to win an additional 24 seats, meaning they will have to hold on to all 12 Democratic districts that Mr Trump won last year and pick up the 23 Republican districts that voted for Hillary Clinton, plus one or two more for good measure. The math is not on the Democrats’ side, but history is. The president’s party almost always loses some House seats in the midterms, and sometimes loses big, especially when the president has an approval rating below 50 per cent. See Barack Obama in 2010.

勉強能。民主黨需要再贏得24個席位，這意味著他們需要守住特朗普去年勝選的全部12個民主黨選區(qū)，并拿下23個在大選中投票支持希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)的共和黨選區(qū)，另外再添上一兩個選區(qū)。算起來形勢對民主黨不利，但從歷史先例來看形勢有利于民主黨。歷任總統(tǒng)所在的政黨幾乎總會在中期選舉時丟掉一些眾議院席位，有時丟得還挺多，特別是當在位總統(tǒng)的支持率低于50%的時候?？匆豢?010年的巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)就知道了。

Courtney Weaver

柯特妮•韋弗(Courtney Weaver)

Will impeachment proceedings begin against Donald Trump?

唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)會遭遇彈劾程序嗎?

Yes — just. Democrats will regain control of the House of Representatives in the November midterm elections. Though they will not take charge until January 2019, they will waste no time preparing the House Judiciary paperwork. Mr Trump will label it a “witch hunt”. But another year of his surreal presidency makes it all but inevitable Democrats will campaign on a pledge to hold him to account. Whatever Robert Mueller’s investigation unearths before then is unlikely to turn enough Republicans against him.

勉強會。民主黨將在11月中期選舉中重新贏得對眾議院的控制權。盡管他們要到2019年1月才能掌控眾議院，但他們將馬上開始為眾議院司法委員會(House Judiciary)啟動彈劾做文書方面的準備。特朗普將稱此舉為“政治迫害”。但在特朗普怪誕的總統(tǒng)任期又持續(xù)了一年之后，民主黨將幾乎不可避免地展開造勢活動，誓要讓特朗普承擔責任。在此之前，無論羅伯特•米勒(Robert Mueller)的調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)了什么，都不可能讓足夠多的共和黨人倒戈反對特朗普。

Edward Luce

愛德華•盧斯(Edward Luce)

Will Trump trigger a trade war with China?

特朗普會發(fā)動美中貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)嗎?

Yes. In 2018 President Trump will deliver on some of his protectionist campaign rhetoric by taking punitive actions against China. The most likely triggers for action will be official reports that the Trump administration has commissioned into China’s alleged theft of intellectual property, and its subsidised production of steel and aluminium. The president, spurred on by his trade team, is likely to order retaliatory measures, including tariffs. Whether that marks the first shot in a trade war will depend on how China reacts. A Chinese decision to impose retaliatory tariffs, or to take America to the World Trade Organization, will signal the opening of hostilities.

會。2018年，美國總統(tǒng)特朗普將通過對中國采取懲罰性行動，來兌現(xiàn)他在競選時許下的部分保護主義諾言。最可能的觸發(fā)因素將是特朗普政府委托的、對中國涉嫌竊取知識產(chǎn)權的官方調(diào)查報告，以及中國補貼鋼鐵和鋁生產(chǎn)的行為。在其貿(mào)易團隊的敦促下，特朗普可能會下令采取報復性措施，其中包括征收懲罰性關稅。此舉是否會標志著貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)打響第一槍，將取決于中國如何反應。如果中國決定征收報復性關稅，或者把美國告上世貿(mào)組織(WTO)，將標志著敵對狀態(tài)的開始。

Gideon Rachman

吉迪恩•拉赫曼(Gideon Rachman)

Will China’s reported gross domestic product growth surpass 6.5 per cent?

中國官方國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)增速會超過6.5%嗎?

Yes, even if real GDP growth does not. Speculation over the true GDP growth rate in China, as opposed to the official one, has spawned a cottage industry of specialist economists. The official figures are deceptively stable and serene thanks to suspected “smoothing” by the Chinese authorities, as they bend the figures to fit growth targets. So even if growth does stumble in 2018, the official growth rate is almost certain to come in above the preordained 6.5 per cent.

會，即便真實的GDP增速未超過這個數(shù)字。關于中國真正的(相對官方數(shù)據(jù)而言)GDP增長率的猜測，已經(jīng)衍生出一個由相關經(jīng)濟學專家組成的作坊式行業(yè)。官方數(shù)據(jù)看似穩(wěn)定而美好——有人懷疑中國有關部門對數(shù)據(jù)進行了“美化”，調(diào)整了一些數(shù)字、使其符合增長目標。因此，即使2018年中國的增長磕磕絆絆，官方的增速也幾乎肯定會高于預定的6.5%。

Jamil Anderlini

吉密歐(Jamil Anderlini)

Will the BoJ tighten monetary policy?

日本央行會收緊貨幣政策嗎?

No. The Bank of Japan’s life will get tougher in 2018 as the US Federal Reserve tightens policy and widens the interest rate gap with Japan. But governor Haruhiko Kuroda is determined to hike rates in response to one thing only: inflation. The BoJ may let the yield curve climb a little if prices start to accelerate, but real interest rates in Japan will end 2018 no higher than at the start of the year.

不會。隨著美聯(lián)儲收緊貨幣政策并擴大美國與日本的利率差，2018年日本央行的日子會更不好過。但是日本央行行長黑田東彥(Haruhiko Kuroda)已決心只會因一件事而上調(diào)利率，那就是通脹。如果通脹開始加速，日本央行可能會讓收益率曲線略微上揚，但到2018年年底時日本實際利率不會高于年初時的水平。

Robin Harding

羅賓•哈丁(Robin Harding)

Will emerging market GDP growth pass 5 per cent?

新興市場GDP增速會超過5%嗎?

Yes. With the US Federal Reserve likely to raise interest rates a few times in 2018, trading is likely to be choppy in emerging markets. Sometimes it may feel a bit like a rerun of the 2013 “taper tantrum”. However, average GDP growth will rise to 5 per cent, up from a forecast 4.7 per cent this year. This will mostly be because Russia and Brazil, which have stumbled, will bounce back.

會。在2018年美聯(lián)儲可能多次加息的情況下，新興市場中的交易可能會波動起伏。有時可能感覺有點像2013年“削減恐慌”(taper tantrum)重演。然而，平均GDP增速將升至5%，高于去年4.7%的預測值。這主要是因為近來處境艱難的俄羅斯和巴西境況將好轉(zhuǎn)。

James Kynge

金奇(James Kynge)

Will Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi try any more unorthodox economic experiments?

印度總理納倫德拉•莫迪(Narendra Modi)會嘗試更多非正統(tǒng)的經(jīng)濟試驗嗎?

Yes. Mr Modi’s overnight ban on using high-value bank notes was a big shock, and seriously disrupted the economy. But it delivered rich political rewards, bolstering the premier’s image as a decisive leader willing to take tough action against corruption. With the next general elections due in 2019, Mr Modi will be tempted to deliver one more big bang to dazzle voters. Watch out for dramatic action against wealthy individuals holding properties in others’ names to hide their ownership.

會。莫迪一夜之間廢除大面額紙幣的做法令人震驚，嚴重擾亂了印度經(jīng)濟。但此舉帶來了豐厚的政治回報，支撐了莫迪作為愿意采取嚴厲措施打擊腐敗的果決領導人的形象。面臨2019年的下一屆大選，莫迪很有可能想拿出另一項轟動性措施來博取選民的支持。當心，他可能會對那些為了隱藏資產(chǎn)而以他人名義持有房產(chǎn)的富人采取重大行動。

Amy Kazmin

艾米•卡茲明(Amy Kazmin)

Will the Saudi Aramco public offering debut on an international market?

沙特阿美(Saudi Aramco)會在外國公開上市嗎?

No. What has been billed as the largest ever IPO is a cornerstone of de facto leader Mohammed bin Salman’s grand economic restructuring, so it must happen. Shares in Aramco will be quoted on the local stock exchange. The international element of the IPO is unlikely to be a public listing, however. Donald Trump has lobbied for New York, and London is pulling all the stops. Hong Kong and Tokyo are also under consideration. But the Saudis will opt instead for a private sale, or choose to list internationally later than anticipated.

不會。這筆被譽為史上最大規(guī)模的首次公開發(fā)行(IPO)，是沙特實際領導人穆罕默德•本•薩勒曼(Mohammed bin Salman)宏大經(jīng)濟重組計劃的基石，因此沙特阿美IPO肯定會成行。該公司的股票將在沙特本國的證交所上市。不過，此次IPO計劃在國外的部分不太可能是一次公開發(fā)行。唐納德•特朗普正在為紐約游說，倫敦也在全力以赴爭取。香港和東京也在沙特的考慮之中。但沙特會轉(zhuǎn)而選擇非公開售股，或者在晚于預期的時間在國外上市。

Roula Khalaf

魯拉•卡拉夫(Roula Khalaf)

Will José Antonio Meade be the next president of Mexico?

何塞•安東尼奧•梅亞德(José Antonio Meade)會成為下一任墨西哥總統(tǒng)嗎?

Yes. Mr Meade is the candidate of the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI. His main rival is the hard leftist Andrés Manuel López Obrador, a passionate orator who can work a crowd. Mr Meade has a lot to overcome: he will have to convince voters that they can trust him, after he put up petrol prices by 20 per cent overnight in January, triggering a surge in inflation. He will also have to reveal himself as his own man, not just a clone of an unpopular government that has failed spectacularly to rein in rampant corruption and crime. But backed by the formidable PRI get-out-the-vote machine, he could prove unstoppable. In Mexico’s one-round-only system, 30 per cent of the vote might be enough.

會。梅亞德是執(zhí)政黨革命制度黨(PRI)的候選人。他主要的競爭對手是強硬的左翼領導人安德烈斯•曼努埃爾•洛佩斯•奧夫拉多爾(Andrés Manuel López Obrador)——可以感召人群的激情演說家。梅亞德需要克服很多問題：在去年1月一夜間把油價上調(diào)20%、引發(fā)通脹飆升后，他必須說服選民自己仍然是可以信任的。他還必須證明自己是個有主見的人，而不僅僅是這屆不受歡迎的政府的傀儡——在遏制猖獗的腐敗和犯罪行為方面，這屆政府極為失敗。但是憑借強大的PRI拉票機器，他可能勢不可擋。在墨西哥只有一輪選舉的體制下，30%的選票可能就足以讓他當選總統(tǒng)了。

Jude Webber

裘德•韋伯(Jude Webber)

Will Zimbabwe’s new leader hold — and win — fair elections?

津巴布韋新任領導人會舉行公平的選舉并勝選嗎?

No. Having ended Robert Mugabe’s 37-year rule — with a little help from the army — Emmerson Mnangagwa has promised free elections in 2018. That raises one problem: he could lose. He must at least pretend elections are fair because he needs donor money to help turn the economy around. That would mean electoral reforms, which risk a loss for his unpopular Zanu-PF. Even if Mr Mnangagwa were prepared to roll the electoral dice, it is not clear the army is. Having got their man in, Zimbabwe’s generals are unlikely to allow the public to kick him out.

不會。結束羅伯特•穆加貝(Robert Mugabe)長達37年的執(zhí)政(軍方在這件事上也幫了點忙)后，埃默森•姆南加古瓦(Emmerson Mnangagwa)承諾在2018年舉行自由選舉。這引出了一個問題：他可能會輸?shù)舸筮x。他至少要裝作選舉是公平的，因為他需要政治獻金來扭轉(zhuǎn)經(jīng)濟。這將意味著要推行選舉改革——可能會讓其不受歡迎的非洲民族聯(lián)盟-愛國陣線(Zanu-PF)輸?shù)暨x舉。即使姆南加古瓦準備好在選舉中賭一把，還不清楚軍方愿不愿意。已經(jīng)把自己的人推上臺的津巴布韋將軍們，不太可能會容許公眾再把他踢下去。

David Pilling

戴維•皮林(David Pilling)

Will the AT&T/Time Warner merger go through without big remedies (such as the sale of CNN)?

AT&T和時代華納(Time Warner)會在不作出大的妥協(xié)(比如出售美國有線新聞網(wǎng)(CNN))的情況下完成合并嗎?

Yes. The government hasn’t won a vertical merger case in decades. According to the Department of Justice’s own review guidelines, “vertical mergers” between content owners like Time Warner and distributors like AT&T are much less worrisome than horizontal ones. Meanwhile, the Fang companies — Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google — now dominate the digital entertainment landscape, which makes the government’s argument that the merger of two old-media firms would fundamentally alter competition even harder to make.

會。美國政府在垂直合并案上已有數(shù)十年沒贏過。據(jù)美國司法部(Department of Justice)自己的審查指導原則，像時代華納這樣的內(nèi)容所有者與AT&T這樣的分銷商之間的“垂直合并”，遠不如水平合并那么令人擔憂。與此同時，F(xiàn)acebook、亞馬遜(Amazon)、Netflix和谷歌(Google)這四巨頭(合稱FANG，取每家名稱首字母)如今主宰了數(shù)字娛樂版圖，這使得政府的如下論點更難以站住腳：兩家傳統(tǒng)媒體公司的合并，會從根本上改變競爭態(tài)勢。

Rana Foroohar

拉娜•福魯哈爾(Rana Foroohar)

Will Tesla produce more than 250,000 Model 3s?

特斯拉(Tesla) Model 3s的產(chǎn)量會超過25萬輛嗎?

No. The much-hyped US electric carmaker once promised to make 400,000 of its new dream machines in 2018. Its latest production targets imply 200,000-300,000. But serious glitches in battery production have meant a slow start, and Tesla’s record is not good. With Tesla yet to show it can wean itself off constant infusions of Wall Street cash, 2018 cold be a make or break year.

沒戲。這家受到熱捧的美國電動車制造商曾經(jīng)承諾在2018年生產(chǎn)40萬輛新款Model 3s。該公司最新的產(chǎn)量目標暗示20萬-30萬輛。但是電池生產(chǎn)中出現(xiàn)的嚴重問題意味著一開始就慢了，而且特斯拉的記錄不佳。對尚未證明自己離了華爾街不斷輸入的資金也能活的特斯拉而言，2018年可能會是不成功便成仁的一年。

Richard Waters

理查德•沃特斯(Richard Waters)

Will the S&P 500 finish the year above 2,650?

今年年底標普500(S&P 500)指數(shù)會在2650點上方嗎?

Yes. There are plenty of positives: earnings, economic growth, and US tax cuts. But they are already known. Stocks look ridiculously expensive by historical standards, but that tells us nothing about short-term moves. Ultimately, it comes down to liquidity, which has driven markets since they emerged from the crisis in 2009. If all goes according to plan, central banks will be decreasing their balance sheets, and removing liquidity, by the end of 2018. If they go through with this, the odds are that the S&P will stall. But even a tiny tremor could make the bankers blink. Expect the momentum to continue.

會。目前有很多利好因素：利潤、經(jīng)濟增長和美國減稅。但這些都是已知因素。按照歷史標準看，眼下股價高得離譜，但這對短期走勢毫無參考價值。最終還是要看流動性，自從股市在2009年從危機中走出來以后，流動性始終驅(qū)動著股市上漲。如果一切按計劃進行，到2018年底，各國央行會在縮表和撤除流動性。如果各央行果真這樣做，標普500指數(shù)很可能會牛氣不再。但只要稍有風吹草動，央行官員們就會遲疑。這股牛氣應該會繼續(xù)。

John Authers

約翰•奧瑟茲(John Authers)

Will the 10-year Treasury yield finish the year above 3 per cent?

今年年底10年期美國國債收益率會突破3%嗎?

No. Wall Street strategists’ predicting that the US government’s 10-year borrowing costs will climb above the 3 per cent mark in the coming year is as much a staple of the Christmas period as awkward office parties. This year the forecasts look more likely to be fulfilled, given a withdrawal of quantitative easing and the US tax cut. However, the seismic, secular forces pinning down both inflation and long-term bond yields remain in place and are still underestimated. The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at least three times in 2018, but the 10-year yield will not breach 3 per cent.

不會。華爾街策略師預測美國政府的10年期借貸成本將在未來一年攀升至3%以上，這話就像尷尬的辦公室聚會一樣是圣誕節(jié)那段時間的固定節(jié)目。鑒于美聯(lián)儲退出量化寬松和美國減稅，今年的預測看起來更有可能實現(xiàn)。然而，壓低通脹和長期債券收益率的長期重大因素依然存在，并且仍然被低估。2018年美聯(lián)儲將至少加息三次，但10年期收益率不會突破3%。

Robin Wigglesworth

羅賓•威格爾斯沃思(Robin Wigglesworth)

Will oil finish 2018 above $70 a barrel?

2018年底石油價格會超過每桶70美元嗎?

Yes. Supply outages and geopolitical risk factors will probably persist, alongside output curbs by global producers. But whether prices can maintain levels at $70 or above is dependent on the willingness of Russia to keep backing a Saudi Arabia-led effort to cut production in the face of growing US shale supply. Other participants in the co-ordinated effort also need to sustain strong compliance with the deal, the incentive of which declines as governments reap the rewards of higher prices.

會。供應中斷和地緣政治風險因素很可能會持續(xù)出現(xiàn)，同時伴隨著全球生產(chǎn)商限產(chǎn)。但價格能否保持在70美元或以上水平取決于：在美國頁巖油供應不斷增長的情況下，俄羅斯是否愿意繼續(xù)支持沙特阿拉伯牽頭的限產(chǎn)努力。參與限產(chǎn)的其他國家也需要繼續(xù)堅定地遵守協(xié)議——隨著各國政府受益于油價上漲，繼續(xù)遵守協(xié)議的動力將越來越小。

Anjli Raval

安吉利•拉瓦爾(Anjli Raval)

Will a stable and liquid bitcoin futures market develop?

會建立起穩(wěn)定、流動性較強的比特幣期貨市場嗎?

No. One way it could play out: after a tentative start involving lots of trading stops, bitcoin futures will slowly begin to attract institutional money. Commodity Futures Trading Commission positioning data will reflect the extraordinary long bias that exists for the product among money managers. As the huge cost of rolling futures positions becomes self-evident, longs will complain ever more loudly about routine divergences around settlement time. Just as a senate hearing is being scheduled to investigate potential manipulation of the market, futures prices will fall below spot, initiating a sell-off.

不會。事情可能會這樣發(fā)展：在一次試運營(其間出現(xiàn)多次交易停止)后，比特幣期貨將慢慢開始吸引機構資金。美國商品期貨交易委員會(CFTC)的持倉數(shù)據(jù)將反映出資金管理公司對該產(chǎn)品存在的長期偏見。隨著減倉的巨額成本變得不言自明，多頭將越來越大聲地抱怨圍繞結算時間的例行分歧。就在參議院計劃舉行聽證會調(diào)查潛在的市場操縱行為時，比特幣期貨價格將跌破現(xiàn)貨價格，引發(fā)拋售。

Izabella Kaminska

伊莎貝拉•卡敏斯卡(Izabella Kaminska)

Will a nation other than Brazil, Germany or Spain win the World Cup?

會是除巴西、德國和西班牙之外的國家捧得大力神杯嗎?

No. Football punditry is a mug’s game. Better to have the benefit of hindsight. There have been 20 previous World Cups. Of those, Brazil (five titles) and Germany (four), are regular contenders. Home advantage helps, with host nations winning the trophy six times. But next year’s festival of football is being held in Russia, which has the lowest-ranked team in the tournament.

不會。傻子才會去預測足球比賽的結果。最好是作事后諸葛亮。目前已經(jīng)舉辦過20屆世界杯。其中，巴西(5次捧杯)和德國(4次捧杯)是決賽?？?。主場優(yōu)勢有所幫助，東道國贏得了6次獎杯。但是明年的世界杯將在俄羅斯舉行，而這位東道主在參賽隊伍中排名墊底。

Murad Ahmed

穆拉德•艾哈邁德(Murad Ahmed)

Illustrations by David Broadbent

插圖：戴維•布羅德本特(David Broadbent)