美國(guó)人為什么用土撥鼠來預(yù)測(cè)天氣？

It's only been in the past 60 or so years that humans have been able to rely on television meteorologists for weather predictions. Before Al Roker, the Babylonians looked at cloud formations; in 300 BC, the Chinese had a calendar broken into 24 festivals, each with its own unique weather patterns.

直到大約60年前，人類才得以通過看電視上的天氣預(yù)報(bào)來預(yù)知天氣。在有美國(guó)氣象播報(bào)員阿爾·洛克之前，巴比倫人是通過觀看云體形成來預(yù)知天氣的;在公元前300年，中國(guó)人將一年分成24個(gè)節(jié)氣，每個(gè)節(jié)氣都有各自獨(dú)特的氣候模式。

Today we use satellites and other costly equipment to gauge our environment, examining changes in the atmosphere and running sophisticated computer models. And sometimes, we just stare at a groundhog.

今天我們用人造衛(wèi)星和其他昂貴的設(shè)備來監(jiān)測(cè)我們的環(huán)境、氣候的改變并運(yùn)行精密的計(jì)算機(jī)模型。不過有時(shí)候，我們只看土撥鼠來預(yù)知天氣。

Every February 2, a doughy rodent named Punxsutawney Phil briefly emerges from his winter hibernation to have a look around. If he sees his shadow, that means there will be six more weeks of winter. If he doesn't, we can assume that warm weather is looming.

每年2月2日，一只名叫龐克瑟托尼·菲爾的軟乎乎的土撥鼠會(huì)從冬眠的洞里露出頭來四下看一看。如果它看到了自己的影子，那就意味著冬天還要持續(xù)6周。如果它沒看到自己的影子，我們就可以假定溫暖的天氣即將來臨。

The ritual has been carried out in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania every year since 1887. Relying on Phil is actually not much better than flipping a coin—he's right an estimated 64.4 percent of the time—but clearly someone at one time believed a groundhog had predictive abilities. Who? And why?

自1887年以來，這一儀式每年都要在美國(guó)賓夕法尼亞州的龐克瑟托尼舉行。事實(shí)上，靠菲爾來預(yù)測(cè)天氣的成功率不比拋硬幣高多少——這只土撥鼠預(yù)測(cè)天氣的準(zhǔn)確率約為64.4%——但顯然有人曾一度認(rèn)為土撥鼠有預(yù)測(cè)天氣的能力。是誰呢?為什么會(huì)這么認(rèn)為?

To understand Phil's current status, it helps to know that superstition and weather have had a long association. Observers of the Christian holiday Candlemas, for example, received candles blessed by clergymen. If the skies were cloudy that day, warm weather was imminent; if the sun was out, winter would persist.

要明白菲爾目前的身份，最好能了解迷信和天氣之間長(zhǎng)久以來的關(guān)聯(lián)。舉例來說，基督教信徒在圣燭節(jié)會(huì)收到牧師祝福過的蠟燭。如果圣燭節(jié)那天是多云，說明溫暖的天氣很快就要來到;如果太陽出來了，冬天將會(huì)持續(xù)下去。

In Europe, the idea that winter's duration could be foretold was carried over to animal behavior. Hibernating animals like bears, marmots, and hedgehogs were observed to see when they'd emerge from their dens.

在歐洲，預(yù)測(cè)冬天持續(xù)時(shí)間和動(dòng)物行為扯到了一起。人們會(huì)觀察熊、旱獺、刺猬等冬眠動(dòng)物，看它們會(huì)不會(huì)從洞里出來。

In Germany, the weather was anticipated by badgers. When Germans began settling in Pennsylvania, however, badgers weren't so readily available: The easiest hibernating animal to locate was the groundhog. In 1887, a newspaper editor began circulating the idea that one groundhog in particular, Punxsutawney Phil, was a meteorological wonder. Before long, the entire country became preoccupied with Phil’s prognosticating, and an annual tradition was born.

在德國(guó)，天氣是由獾來預(yù)測(cè)的。但是，當(dāng)?shù)聡?guó)人在美國(guó)賓夕法尼亞州定居的時(shí)候，獾并沒有那么好找：最容易找到的冬眠動(dòng)物是土撥鼠。1887年，一位報(bào)社編輯開始傳播一個(gè)信息：有一只名叫龐克瑟托尼·菲爾的土撥鼠是預(yù)測(cè)天氣的奇才。沒過多久，整個(gè)國(guó)家都被菲爾的預(yù)測(cè)迷住了，一項(xiàng)年度傳統(tǒng)就此誕生。

Phil isn't the only one in the business of long-range forecasting. The Old Farmer's Almanac, a yearly digest of upcoming weather patterns for large geographical areas, is prepared up to 18 months in advance: Its editors claim an 80 percent accuracy rate, though some meteorologists dispute the viability of assessing weather more than two weeks out.

從事長(zhǎng)期天氣預(yù)報(bào)的不只有菲爾。《老農(nóng)民年歷》是一本預(yù)測(cè)大范圍地區(qū)天氣的年度出版物，每年都是提前18個(gè)月準(zhǔn)備。這本年歷的編輯聲稱準(zhǔn)確率有80%，盡管一些氣象學(xué)家質(zhì)疑提前兩周以上預(yù)測(cè)天氣是否可行。

Last year, Phil "predicted" six more weeks of winter. It turned out to be the second-warmest February on record.

去年，菲爾“預(yù)測(cè)”冬天還將持續(xù)6周。結(jié)果，去年二月份的天氣是有史以來最暖和的。