歷書(shū)預(yù)測(cè)冬天會(huì)很糟糕，沒(méi)有好天氣

歷書(shū)預(yù)測(cè)冬天會(huì)很糟糕，沒(méi)有好天氣

Stock up on the wool socks and hot chocolate; it's going to be a long winter. So says the staff of the Farmers' Almanac, who predict this winter will be so full of ups and downs, they're labeling it a "polar coaster."

儲(chǔ)備羊毛襪和熱巧克力;這將是一個(gè)漫長(zhǎng)的冬天?！掇r(nóng)民年鑒》的工作人員預(yù)測(cè)，今年冬天將充滿起起落落，他們將其稱為“極地過(guò)山車”。

The almanacs agree on one thing: This winter could be a big uh-oh. (Photo: Phil McDonald/Shutterstock)

The Farmers' Almanac famously predicts seasonal weather based on sunspot activity, tidal action, planetary position and other "top secret mathematical and astronomical formulas."

《農(nóng)民年鑒》以根據(jù)太陽(yáng)黑子活動(dòng)、潮汐運(yùn)動(dòng)、行星位置和其他“絕密數(shù)學(xué)和天文公式”來(lái)預(yù)測(cè)季節(jié)天氣而聞名。

Last year's prediction called for a long, snow-filled winter, and the almanac says 2019-2020 will be much the same with above-normal snowfall over the eastern third of the country as well as the Great Plains, Midwest and the Great Lakes. The Northeast expects colder-than-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation, which means plenty of snow, as well as rain and sleet, particularly along the coast. The Pacific Northwest and Southwest should see near-normal precipitation.

去年的預(yù)測(cè)是一個(gè)漫長(zhǎng)的、大雪紛飛的冬天，年歷上說(shuō)2019-2020年美國(guó)東部三分之一地區(qū)以及大平原、中西部和五大湖地區(qū)的降雪量將超過(guò)正常水平。東北部地區(qū)預(yù)計(jì)氣溫將低于正常水平，降水量將高于正常水平，這意味著會(huì)有大量降雪，以及雨夾雪，尤其是沿海地區(qū)。太平洋西北部和西南部應(yīng)該會(huì)有接近正常的降水。

The Farmers' Almanac says it will be a rough winter for almost every area of the country. (Photo: Farmers' Almanac)

What the Old Farmer's Almanac says

老農(nóng)民年鑒怎么說(shuō)的

Meanwhile, the Old Farmer's Almanac, which since 1792 has made advanced forecasts for the seasons, tells people to get ready for "shivers, snowflakes and slush" this season.

與此同時(shí)，《老農(nóng)民年鑒》告訴人們，這個(gè)季節(jié)要做好“顫抖、雪花和雪泥”的準(zhǔn)備。

Those in Texas, Hawaii and Florida should have it easy. (Photo: Old Farmer's Almanac)

Like the Farmers' Almanac, they also predict that cold conditions will linger well into March, particularly in the Midwest and Appalachians.

和農(nóng)民年鑒一樣，他們也預(yù)測(cè)寒冷的天氣將持續(xù)到三月份，尤其是在中西部和阿巴拉契亞山脈。

This year's almanac, however, predicts that New England will get off a little easier with "more wet than white" weather, while Florida and Texas will actually have pleasant weather.

然而，今年的年歷預(yù)測(cè)，新英格蘭的天氣將會(huì)“比白色更潮濕”，而佛羅里達(dá)和德克薩斯的天氣將會(huì)更宜人。

Canada should expect a lot of snow, but relatively mild temperatures. (Photo: Old Farmer's Almanac)

About those predictions

關(guān)于這些預(yù)測(cè)

The Old Farmer's Almanac leans more on the side of science for its forecasts. While the exact formula is still secret, much of it is based on solar activity, prevailing weather patterns and meteorology.

《老農(nóng)民年鑒》的預(yù)測(cè)更傾向于科學(xué)。雖然確切的公式仍是秘密，但其中大部分是基于太陽(yáng)活動(dòng)、流行的天氣模式和氣象學(xué)。

Take these predictions with a grain of salt — but always be prepared. (Photo: MarkoBerkes/Shutterstock)

Despite a claimed accuracy percentage of around 80.5% on Old Farmer's Almanac forecasts, meteorologists and science journalists are quick to encourage people to take these long-range predictions with a huge grain of salt.

盡管《老農(nóng)民年鑒》預(yù)測(cè)的準(zhǔn)確率高達(dá)80.5%左右，氣象學(xué)家和科學(xué)記者還是很快地鼓勵(lì)人們對(duì)這些長(zhǎng)期預(yù)測(cè)持懷疑態(tài)度。

"My guess is their success rate is more like half what they say," Jonathan Martin, chairman of the University of Wisconsin-Madison's Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, told NPR.

威斯康辛大學(xué)麥迪遜分校大氣和海洋科學(xué)系主任喬納森·馬丁對(duì)美國(guó)國(guó)家公共廣播電臺(tái)說(shuō):“我猜他們的成功率更接近他們所說(shuō)的一半。”

Others take issue with the Almanac's top-secret formula relying on solar activity.

另一些人則對(duì)年鑒中依賴太陽(yáng)活動(dòng)的絕密公式提出異議。

"I can tell you it's not common meteorological practice [to use space weather as an indicator], based on my years of experience and research,” Marshall Shepherd, a former president of the American Meteorological Society and professor at the University of Georgia, told TIME. “Modern meteorological forecasting is based on models representing the atmosphere and physics over time. There is an inherent limit [to forecasting] of about 7 to 10 days."

美國(guó)氣象學(xué)會(huì)前會(huì)長(zhǎng)、佐治亞大學(xué)教授馬歇爾•謝潑德對(duì)《時(shí)代》雜志(TIME)表示:“我可以告訴你，根據(jù)我多年的經(jīng)驗(yàn)和研究，(將太空天氣作為一個(gè)指標(biāo))并不常見(jiàn)。”“現(xiàn)代氣象預(yù)報(bào)是基于代表大氣和物理隨時(shí)間變化的模型。(預(yù)測(cè))大約7至10天是有內(nèi)在限制的。”

The takeaway from all of this? Enjoy summer while you can. Whether warm and wet or cold and snowy, the temperamental months of winter will be upon us all soon enough.

這一切的意義何在?盡情享受夏天吧。無(wú)論溫暖潮濕還是寒冷多雪，我們很快就會(huì)迎來(lái)喜怒無(wú)常的冬季。