投資者的數(shù)十億美元正在追逐嬰兒潮一代的市場

投資者的數(shù)十億美元正在追逐嬰兒潮一代的市場

If you are in the real estate business it's hard not to look at the 72 million baby boomers and think that this is going to be a giant market. According to Peter Grant in the Wall Street Journal, "Developers and senior-housing companies have spent billions of dollars over the past five years to build facilities that provide housing, food, medical care and assistance for the elderly."

如果你從事房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)，你很難不去關注7200萬嬰兒潮一代，并認為這將是一個巨大的市場。據(jù)《華爾街日報》的彼得·格蘭特報道，“在過去的五年里，開發(fā)商和老年公寓公司已經(jīng)花費了數(shù)十億美元來建造為老年人提供住房、食物、醫(yī)療和援助的設施。”

If you build it, will people come? (Photo: Shutterstock)

There is only one small problem: Not too many baby boomers, the oldest of whom are 73, would consider themselves elderly. Grant keeps using the word, as do most developers, which is why they have a problem:

只有一個小問題:沒有太多的嬰兒潮一代認為自己老了，他們中年齡最大的已經(jīng)73歲了。格蘭特一直在使用這個詞，就像大多數(shù)開發(fā)者一樣，這就是為什么他們有一個問題:

...this wager on elderly care is falling short of expectations, and there are concerns that it could become one of the biggest real-estate miscalculations in recent memory, some analysts suggest.

一些分析師認為，這種對老年人護理的押注沒有達到預期，人們擔心這可能成為近年來房地產(chǎn)市場出現(xiàn)的最大誤判之一。

In fact, as older people are staying healthier longer, the age at which they move into seniors housing is going up, now around 85 years old compared to 82 a decade ago. So the oldest baby boomers might not start moving into them for a dozen years.

事實上，隨著老年人健康狀況的持續(xù)改善，他們?nèi)胱±夏旯⒌哪挲g也在上升，從十年前的82歲上升到現(xiàn)在的85歲左右。因此，最年長的嬰兒潮一代可能要十幾年后才會搬到這里來。

The baby boomers who are downsizing and moving are not going into seniors buildings; they are moving downtown into new apartments that were built for the millennials and occupied by their parents.

嬰兒潮時期出生的人正在縮小規(guī)模，正在遷移，他們不會進入老年建筑;他們搬到市中心的新公寓，這些公寓是為千禧一代建造的，由他們的父母居住。

It turns out that baby boomers like downtowns for the same reasons the kids do: They can walk to stores and restaurants and don't have all their money tied up in mortgages and cars. They may not want to stay in their big suburban homes, but they don't want to hang around with old people in a retirement home.

事實證明，嬰兒潮一代喜歡市中心的原因和孩子們一樣:他們可以步行去商店和餐館，而不是把所有的錢都用在抵押貸款和汽車上。他們可能不想住在郊區(qū)的大房子里，但他們也不想在養(yǎng)老院和老人呆在一起。

Peter Grant of the Wall Street Journal notes also that another reason that older people aren't moving is that technology is letting them stay in place.

《華爾街日報》的彼得•格蘭特也指出，老年人不愿搬家的另一個原因是科技讓他們留在了原來的地方。

I fell down and I can't get up! (Photo: Apple)

Here again, as we wrote previously, almost all of these things are already available in my iPhone and Apple Watch. We are already in the Apple, Google or Alexa ecosystem. They know who owns their watches and phones and are catering to them with health apps and fall detectors. These investors are designing stuff for our parents with their Jitterbug phones; I want my iPhone 11 Pro.

再一次，正如我們之前所寫的，幾乎所有這些東西都已經(jīng)可以在我的iPhone和Apple Watch上使用了。我們已經(jīng)進入了蘋果、谷歌或Alexa的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)。他們知道誰擁有自己的手表和手機，并為他們提供健康應用程序和秋季探測器。這些投資者正在用他們的Jitterbug手機為我們的父母設計東西;我想要我的iPhone 11 Pro。

And of course, all of this really only applies to the rich, the quarter of the U.S. population who have enough money for Alexa, Siri, Apple watches and trendy apartments and personal trainers. As one study noted, "While many of these seniors will likely need the level of care provided in seniors housing, we project that 54 percent of seniors will not have sufficient financial resources to pay for it."

當然，所有這些都只適用于富人，占美國人口的四分之一，他們有足夠的錢購買Alexa、Siri、蘋果手表、時髦的公寓和私人教練。正如一項研究指出的那樣，“雖然這些老年人中的許多人可能需要老年人住房提供的護理水平，但我們預計54%的老年人將沒有足夠的財政資源來支付它。”

But then, like Angie, I have never understood Smart Money. Instead of investing billions in fancy seniors real estate and technology, perhaps we need to think about the scale of the issue 10 years from now, where are the 60 million old-old boomers going to live, how they are going to get around, and who is going to take care of them or pay for this all. It is going to be a very different picture than what we are seeing now.

但是，就像安吉一樣，我從來沒有理解過智能貨幣。與其投資數(shù)十億美元在高檔的老年人的房地產(chǎn)和技術，也許我們需要考慮問題的規(guī)模-10年后，6000萬嬰兒潮時期的人將住在哪里，他們將如何四處走動，誰來照顧他們，或者為這一切支付賬單。這將是一個與現(xiàn)在看起來非常不同的畫面。