到本世紀(jì)末，世界上一半的沙灘可能會消失

到本世紀(jì)末，世界上一半的沙灘可能會消失

If you were hoping to head to the beach until the climate catastrophe blows over, think again. Around half of the world’s sandy beaches could be gone by the end of this century if climate change is left unchecked, according to a study published in the journal Nature Climate Change.

如果你希望在氣候災(zāi)難過去之前去海灘，再想想吧。《自然氣候變化》雜志上發(fā)表的一項研究表明，如果不控制氣候變化，到本世紀(jì)末，世界上大約一半的沙灘將會消失。

The new research used 35 years of satellite coastal observations, paired with over 80 years of climate and sea-level rise projections, to predict how our planet’s coastlines fare over the next 80 years.

這項新的研究使用了35年的沿海衛(wèi)星觀測數(shù)據(jù)，結(jié)合80多年的氣候和海平面上升預(yù)測，來預(yù)測我們星球的海岸線在未來80年的變化。

Their models suggest that up to 50 percent of the world’s sandy beaches could be gone if greenhouse gas emissions are not cut and continue to creep upwards. Even within 30 years, by the year 2050, around 14 percent of the world’s sandy beaches could face severe degradation.

他們的模型表明，如果不減少溫室氣體排放并繼續(xù)緩慢上升，世界上多達(dá)50%的沙灘可能會消失。即使在30年內(nèi)，到2050年，世界上大約14%的沙灘將面臨嚴(yán)重的退化。

Tom Hale

However, there is a slither of hope: a “moderate emission mitigation policy,” whereby greenhouse gas emissions are slashed and peak by 2040, would prevent 40 percent of the projected erosion.

然而，還有一線希望:“適度減排政策”，即到2040年削減溫室氣體排放并達(dá)到峰值，預(yù)計可以防止40%的侵蝕。

The severity of “beach extinction” will be experienced differently across the world. For example, the risk of erosion is particularly high in certain countries under both climate scenarios, including the Gambia and Guinea-Bissau, where over 60 percent of sandy coastlines are likely to be lost. Other countries that are expected to bear some of the most profound changes include Australia, Canada, Chile, Mexico, China, the US, Russia, and Argentina.

世界各地對“海灘滅絕”的嚴(yán)重程度將有不同的感受。例如，在包括岡比亞和幾內(nèi)亞比紹在內(nèi)的兩種氣候情況下，某些國家的水土流失風(fēng)險特別高，在這些國家，60%以上的沙質(zhì)海岸線可能會消失。預(yù)計澳大利亞、加拿大、智利、墨西哥、中國、美國、俄羅斯和阿根廷等國也將面臨一些影響最為深遠(yuǎn)的變化。

“While some parts of sandy coastlines will grow, many countries will have 80 percent of their sandy coastlines affected by erosion. The latter countries where sandy beaches are important tourist attractions will face the major negative socio-economic impacts. Countries like Australia and the USA have a large proportion of sandy beaches and will see large changes,” explained Dr Suzana Ilic, senior lecturer at the Lancaster Environment Centre of Lancaster University, who wasn’t directly involved with the new study.

“雖然部分沙灘海岸線將會增長，但許多國家80%的沙灘海岸線將會受到侵蝕。后一種國家的沙灘是重要的旅游景點，將面臨主要的消極社會經(jīng)濟(jì)影響。蘭開斯特大學(xué)蘭開斯特環(huán)境中心的高級講師Suzana Ilic博士解釋說，她沒有直接參與這項新研究。

Indeed, many of these changes are already being felt. Previous research showed that nearly a quarter of sandy beaches worldwide are currently eroding at a rate of over 0.5 meters (1.6 feet) per year, accounting for over 28,000 square kilometers (10,800 square miles) of beach that have already been lost to the sea.

事實上，許多變化已經(jīng)被感覺到。之前的研究表明，目前全世界近四分之一的沙灘正以每年0.5米(1.6英尺)的速度遭受侵蝕，已經(jīng)被海水淹沒的海灘面積超過2.8萬平方公里(1.08萬平方英里)。

Sandy beaches line around a third of the world’s coastlines. They are especially vulnerable to changes in sea level as they will degrade within years or decades of sea-level rise, compared to cliffs or rocky coastlines that can take decades or centuries to respond.

世界三分之一的海岸線上都是沙灘。它們尤其容易受到海平面變化的影響，因為與可能需要幾十年或幾百年才能作出反應(yīng)的懸崖或多巖石的海岸線相比，它們將在海平面上升的幾年內(nèi)或幾十年內(nèi)退化。

Many sandy beaches are also near to highly populated areas – some 10 percent of the world’s population lives in coastal areas – and serve as important hubs for recreation, tourism, and industry. This is not even considering their invaluable role as a habitat for wildlife. On top of that, beaches also provide natural barriers against marine storms and cyclones.

許多沙灘也靠近人口密集的地區(qū)——大約10%的世界人口居住在沿海地區(qū)——是娛樂、旅游和工業(yè)的重要樞紐。這甚至沒有考慮到它們作為野生動物棲息地的寶貴作用。除此之外，海灘還提供了天然屏障，抵御海洋風(fēng)暴和氣旋。

So if these gorgeous ecosystems start to crumble, it will be a lot more severe than a few homeless crabs and a ruined holiday.

因此，如果這些美麗的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)開始崩潰，它將比幾只無家可歸的螃蟹和一個被毀的假期嚴(yán)重得多。