英語(yǔ)世界文摘:Transforming Jobs in the Age of AI
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Transforming Jobs in the Age of AI
人工智能時(shí)代的工作變革
By Joe Luc Barnes
文/喬·盧克·巴恩斯
The future of labor in a digital economy has become a heated topic alongside the emergence of artificial intelligence (AI). Will the proliferation of AI and robotics herald human redundancy as a working species?
自人工智能（AI）出現(xiàn)以來(lái), 數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)時(shí)代勞動(dòng)力的未來(lái)已成為一個(gè)熱門話題。AI和機(jī)器人技術(shù)的廣泛使用，是否預(yù)示著作為工作物種的人類將會(huì)變得多余？
This prospect has inspired pessimism in many Western countries that is not shared by most Chinese. Indeed, according to a survey compiled by the Dentsu Aegis Network1, just 18 percent of British and German citizens feel that new digital technologies will create job opportunitiesover the next five to ten years. In China, acountry with a labor force of around 800 million, 65 percent of people believe that AI will create even more work.
眾多西方國(guó)家對(duì)此現(xiàn)象憂心忡忡，而大部分中國(guó)人卻不然。的確，根據(jù)電通安吉斯集團(tuán)的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查，只有18%的英國(guó)和德國(guó)公民認(rèn)為新數(shù)字科技會(huì)在今后的5到10年創(chuàng)造出新的工作崗位。在擁有約8億勞動(dòng)力人口的中國(guó)，則有65%的人相信AI會(huì)創(chuàng)造出更多工作機(jī)會(huì)。
Government backing
政府扶持
A major factor is that few governments are embracing the digital age with as much gusto as China. In July 2017, China’s State Council set a national goal of becoming the world’s primary AI innovation center, aiming to foster an AI industry that produces in excess of one trillion yuan (US$147.7 billion) by 2030.
一個(gè)重要原因是，少有他國(guó)政府如中國(guó)一般熱情擁抱數(shù)字時(shí)代。2017年7月，中國(guó)國(guó)務(wù)院確立了國(guó)家發(fā)展目標(biāo)，要爭(zhēng)取成為世界主要人工智能創(chuàng)新中心，到2030年形成總值超一萬(wàn)億元人民幣（1477億美元）的AI產(chǎn)業(yè)。
Such enthusiasm has seeped right down to the municipal level, with local governments especially keen to support startups in the sector.
這種熱情已滲透至市政層面，地方政府尤其重視扶持AI初創(chuàng)企業(yè)。
“The business environment in China and especially Shanghai is very attractive,” says Ste?phane Truong, founder of Actionable Data, an AI consultancy service company. “I have seen a lot of initiative from several city districts such as collaboration with incubators2 to propose ancillary services, organizingcompetition for financial subsidies and providing a flexible fiscal policy.”
“中國(guó)，尤其是上海的營(yíng)商環(huán)境極具吸引力，”AI咨詢服務(wù)公司安潮信息科技創(chuàng)始人斯特凡·張說(shuō)，“上海市幾個(gè)區(qū)政府積極推出了多項(xiàng)舉措，比如與創(chuàng)業(yè)孵化中心合作提供相關(guān)服務(wù)，組織企業(yè)爭(zhēng)取財(cái)政補(bǔ)貼，以及提供靈活的財(cái)政政策。”
But Beijing has perhaps created the most fertile environment for tech startups. The capital’s Zhongguancun area is known as China’s “Silicon Valley” due to concentration of tech startups based there. Its proximity to China’s two premier academic institutions, Peking and Tsinghua universities, makes it a happy hunting ground for new talent.
不過(guò)，為科技初創(chuàng)公司提供最有利環(huán)境的城市可能還數(shù)北京。北京的中關(guān)村集中了大量科創(chuàng)公司總部，因而以“中國(guó)硅谷”著稱。鄰近中國(guó)兩所頂級(jí)學(xué)府——北京大學(xué)和清華大學(xué)，中關(guān)村是新秀求職的理想之地。
Disappearing jobs
崗位消失
One startup is Oriental iFly, which aims to use AI to create an automatic grading system for essays that provides instant feedback to teachers on students’ work and saves time spent marking.
東方訊飛教育科技有限公司正是這樣一個(gè)初創(chuàng)企業(yè)。它致力于利用AI技術(shù)建構(gòu)作文自動(dòng)評(píng)分體系，并即時(shí)向教師提供反饋，節(jié)省教師批改作業(yè)的時(shí)間。
I asked one of the company’s product designers, Kailin Xie, whether this innovation might put teachers out of work.
我詢問(wèn)該公司的一位產(chǎn)品設(shè)計(jì)師謝凱琳（音），這種創(chuàng)新是否會(huì)使教師失業(yè)。
“Teachers aren’t hired to grade,” she asserts. “As long as there are students, teachers will be necessary. Grading is just an extraneous part of the job. Our product enables a teacher to save dozens of hours a week on marking essays.”
“老師的職責(zé)不是批改作業(yè)，” 她說(shuō)，“ 只要還有學(xué)生，教師就必不可少。批改作業(yè)并非一定要由教師來(lái)做。我們的產(chǎn)品能使老師每周節(jié)約幾十小時(shí)批改學(xué)生作文的時(shí)間?！?
Is a school likely to pay those teachers the same for less work? Or will it instead use those extra hours to give them more classes, which would reduce personnel requirements?
那么，教師工作時(shí)間減少后，學(xué)校會(huì)支付他們同樣的工資嗎？會(huì)不會(huì)要求他們用省下的時(shí)間去上更多的課，以減少雇用人數(shù)？
Such questions could be some of the defining issues of the digital age. Should companies use AI to increaseproductivity and profits, or do they alsohave a duty to improve the day-to-day routine of their employees?
在數(shù)字時(shí)代，以上這類問(wèn)題可能非常關(guān)鍵。公司應(yīng)否使用AI來(lái)提高生產(chǎn)效率和利潤(rùn)？是否也有義務(wù)優(yōu)化員工的日常工作？
Business optimism
商業(yè)前景樂(lè)觀
Much of the tech community has adopted the belief that these problems will simply sort themselves out. This is certainly the attitude of Stuart Leitch, founder of Lollipop.ai, a Seattle and Shanghai-based software company that uses AI to improve customer engagement3 with online products. “Firms have a very bad habit of hiring for unnecessary positions. The employees aren’t bad, but their duties usually involve repetitive, brainless and low-value work.”
大部分科技行業(yè)從業(yè)人士相信，隨著時(shí)間推移，這些問(wèn)題自然會(huì)迎刃而解。Lollipop.ai 公司創(chuàng)始人斯圖爾特·利奇顯然也持這種態(tài)度。這是一家總部位于西雅圖和上海的軟件公司，利用 AI 技術(shù)提升在線產(chǎn)品的顧客契合度?！霸S多公司存在一種積弊，即為不必要的崗位招聘。雖然招來(lái)的員工素質(zhì)并不差，但他們往往從事著 重復(fù)性、無(wú)須動(dòng)腦、低價(jià)值的工作。”
“We want to release people from those positions and reduce the cost of that kind of work so those people can do more meaningful things. At the end of the day, we expect to create jobs across industries rather than put people out of work,” explains Leitch.
“我們想要將員工從這些崗位中解放，減少這類工作的成本，使他們能做更有意義的事。歸根結(jié)底，我們期望在各個(gè)行業(yè)創(chuàng)造就業(yè)崗位，而不是使人失業(yè)?！崩娼忉屨f(shuō)。
But what of the manufacturing jobs that have served as the backbone of China’s economic growth? Many are likely to go, admits Denny Xu, vice president of the Shanghai Haihe IT Company, which produces intelligent speech robots.
長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的支柱是制造業(yè)，該行業(yè)的工作崗位又會(huì)怎樣變化呢？上海海河信息科技有限公司副總裁徐敏波承認(rèn)，很多崗位會(huì)消失。該公司從事智能語(yǔ)音機(jī)器人生產(chǎn)。
“AI will change future employment trends and patterns,” he explains. “Now, the labor force is too costly, so lower-level labor will largely be replaced by AI-related technology. But humans won’t be completely unnecessary – human-machine coupling will become a future trend for enterprises and busi- nesses.”
“AI會(huì)改變未來(lái)的雇用趨勢(shì)和模式，”他解釋道，“當(dāng)下勞動(dòng)力太昂貴，因此低層次勞動(dòng)力很大程度上會(huì)被AI相關(guān)技術(shù)所取代。不過(guò)人類并非完全多余——人機(jī)融合將會(huì)成為企業(yè)的未來(lái)趨勢(shì)?！?
Skills gap
技能缺口
To a large extent, the challenge is retraining people. Thousands of brand new jobs are being created. In fact, a growing complaint from business leaders and recruiters is a lack of talent with the necessary skills to fill emerging jobs.
這種挑戰(zhàn)很大程度上在于人員再培訓(xùn)。數(shù)千個(gè)全新工作崗位正在涌現(xiàn)。實(shí)際上，企業(yè)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)和招聘專員越來(lái)越多的抱怨是，難以找到具有所需技能、能填充這些新崗位的人才。
Stuart Leitch notes, “It’s especially difficult to find talent on the development front. Since the skills most indemand for our business are hard data4 science and machine-learning skills, we’re finding that we need PhD-level candidates, which are few and far between. It may become necessary to just hire go-getters who can learn quickly but don’t necessarily have experience.”
斯圖爾特·利奇提及：“招聘產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)領(lǐng)域的人才尤其困難。本公司最需要的技能是硬數(shù)據(jù)科學(xué)和機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)，我們清楚自己需要博士水平的應(yīng)聘人，而這類人員十分稀缺。也許有必要聘用上進(jìn)心強(qiáng)、學(xué)習(xí)能力出眾卻不一定有經(jīng)驗(yàn)的人。”
Stéphane Truong at Actionable Data has similar issues. “My company would ideally employ candidates with at least a master’s degree in computer science. We offer a very competitive package, but the battle for talent is rough because employees are more attracted to mature companies.”
安潮信息科技的斯特凡·張面臨同樣的問(wèn)題。他說(shuō)：“理想情況下，本公司聘用的員工至少應(yīng)擁有計(jì)算機(jī)科學(xué)碩士學(xué)位。我們提供的薪酬福利有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，但爭(zhēng)奪人才的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)很激烈，因?yàn)槌墒斓拇笮推髽I(yè)更具吸引力。”
Technology education
技術(shù)教育
With such a limited talent pool, domestic Chinese tech giants like Alibaba and Tencent usually have first pick of the best talent.
面對(duì)如此有限的人才庫(kù)，中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)的科技巨頭，如阿里巴巴和騰訊，往往能優(yōu)先挑選到最優(yōu)秀的人才。
But China’s edge on other countries may be its realization of the role that education plays in digitalizing the economy. Beijing has sunk major investment into computer science programs at its major universities, which is slowly starting to pay off.
不過(guò)，相對(duì)于其他國(guó)家，中國(guó)的優(yōu)勢(shì)或許在于意識(shí)到了教育在經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)字化過(guò)程中的重要作用。中國(guó)政府對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)重點(diǎn)高校的計(jì)算機(jī)科學(xué)專業(yè)投入極大，其成效已逐漸顯現(xiàn)。
Tsinghua University produced more of the top one-percent most highly cited papers in math and computing disciplines than any other in the world between 2013 and 2016. Much of the situation is about money: While Chinese professors still don’t earn as much as their American counterparts, many of them are still offered over US$100,000 per year, making China vastly more competitive academically.
2013年至2016年，在數(shù)學(xué)和計(jì)算機(jī)領(lǐng)域，被引頻次最高（占前1%）的論文中，清華大學(xué)所發(fā)表的數(shù)量超過(guò)世界上其他任何大學(xué)。主要還是薪酬起作用：盡管中國(guó)教授的收入依然比不上他們的美國(guó)同行，仍有許多人年收入超過(guò)10萬(wàn)美元，使中國(guó)在學(xué)術(shù)研究上極具競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。
U.S. News & World Report even ranked the university as the number one computer science institution in the world in 2018. The fact that China is now competing with Western universities in this vital field is an immense achievement and will be key to unlocking AI potential in the country.
《美國(guó)新聞與世界報(bào)道》在2018年甚至將清華大學(xué)的計(jì)算機(jī)科學(xué)專業(yè)排在全球第一位。中國(guó)高校能與西方大學(xué)在這個(gè)重要領(lǐng)域分庭抗禮，這是一項(xiàng)巨大的成就，也將成為釋放中國(guó)AI潛力的關(guān)鍵。
“After all,” says Denny Xu, “AI is a new tech field – millions of young people with dreams will choose to work in this realm.”
“畢竟，”徐敏波說(shuō)，“AI是一個(gè)全新的科技領(lǐng)域，數(shù)百萬(wàn)逐夢(mèng)的年輕人會(huì)選擇在該領(lǐng)域工作?！?
注釋：
1. 電通安吉斯集團(tuán)屬于電通集團(tuán)（Dentsu Group，日本最大的廣告與傳播集團(tuán)），提供高水準(zhǔn)的媒體、數(shù)字和創(chuàng)意傳播服務(wù)。
2. incubator 企業(yè)孵化中心，也稱企業(yè)孵化器或高新技術(shù)創(chuàng)業(yè)服務(wù)中心，是一種新型的社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)組織，通過(guò)提供研發(fā)、生產(chǎn)、經(jīng)營(yíng)的場(chǎng)地，通信、網(wǎng)絡(luò)與辦公等方面的共享設(shè)施，系統(tǒng)的培訓(xùn)和咨詢，政策、融資、法律和市場(chǎng)推廣等方面的支持，降低企業(yè)的創(chuàng)業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和創(chuàng)業(yè)成本，提高企業(yè)的成活率和成功率。
3. customer engagement 顧客契合，是一種心理狀態(tài)，它是由在核心服務(wù)關(guān)系中與核心機(jī)構(gòu)/客體（如品牌）互動(dòng)、共創(chuàng)顧客體驗(yàn)產(chǎn)生的，在共創(chuàng)價(jià)值的服務(wù)關(guān)系中以一種動(dòng)態(tài)的、重復(fù)性的過(guò)程存在。
4. hard data 硬數(shù)據(jù)，是對(duì)改進(jìn)情況的主要衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，是一些易于收集的無(wú)可爭(zhēng)辯的事實(shí)，描述的是具體數(shù)值，如工業(yè)產(chǎn)值、零售數(shù)據(jù)、進(jìn)出口數(shù)據(jù)等。軟數(shù)據(jù)一般指較為主觀的調(diào)查類的指數(shù)，如消費(fèi)者信心指數(shù)、采購(gòu)經(jīng)理人指數(shù)等。
