金融英語泛讀:股票價(jià)值，該用多長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)的目光去看待

The Stock Value Wasn't Decided by Economic Conditions股票價(jià)值，該用多長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)的目光去看待

The stock market jumped 6%last week on growing hopes of an imminent economic recovery. It has risen 39%from the March lows on similar hopes.Of course, it had previously fallen nearly 60%on fears of a slump.

All these moves have one thing in common：Millions of investors have acted on the belief that shared values are closely related to what will happen in the economy in the next few months and years. But are they right?

Not according to Ben lnker, director of asset allocation at contrarian fund company Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo&Co. in a recent and fascinating note, Mr.Inker persuasively argues that the next moves in the economy shouldn't actually matter too much to investors at all.

Why?Two reasons.

First, because most of the value of shares really depends on the cash they will generate many years, even decades, ahead. The next few years are only a minuscule part of the equation.“Since stocks do not have an expiration date and dividends grow over time，”Mr.lnker argues，“the duration of stocks is extremely long.If we assume that half of the return from stocks in a given year comes from the dividends and half from the growth in dividends, most of the value of stocks comes from cash flows in the distant future.”

How distant?Using Mr. lnker's hypothesis, it turns out that about 75%of the value of shares is actually based on dividends that will be paid more than eleven years from now.Half the value is based on dividends to be paid after 25 years, and a quarter on those to be paid after about 50 years.

In other words, when you look at the market today, three quarters of its true value is based on what companies will earn and pay out after 2020 and half is based on what they will do after 2034. So really, how much attention should you pay to next quarter's earnings?

There is a second reason for not paying too much attention to the economy's next move. No matter what happens next month or next year, sooner or later the economy will probably find its way back onto its long-term path anyway.If we now boom wildly, we'll pay for it with weaker growth down the line.And if things are bad for a while, eventually they'll pick up.That can be true even for devastating blows.GMO's calculations show that by the late 1940s, Mr.lnker writes, the U.S.economy had returned to the long-term growth path“as if the Depression had never happened.”

This sort of analysis is a useful antidote to stock market moods.

Wall Street is back on its happy pills again. At some point, maybe even soon, brokers may start urging us to pay too much for stocks on the basis of this year's economic growth or next.Canny investors may respond：But what about 2034?

對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇指日可待的希望日益加大，受此提振，美國(guó)股市上周漲了6%。在同樣希望的推動(dòng)下，股市較3月份的低點(diǎn)漲了39%。當(dāng)然，受經(jīng)濟(jì)滑坡?lián)鷳n的拖累，美股此前跌了近60%。

股市的所有這些走勢(shì)都有一個(gè)共同點(diǎn)，那就是數(shù)百萬投資者的行為都是基于這樣一種觀點(diǎn)：股價(jià)與未來幾個(gè)月和未來幾年的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)密切相關(guān)。但是他們的看法對(duì)嗎？

反向投資基金公司Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo&Co.（簡(jiǎn)稱GMO投資有限責(zé)任公司）的資產(chǎn)配置主管本·印克可不這樣認(rèn)為。在最近一份頗有趣的報(bào)告中，印克很有說服力地辯稱，投資者實(shí)際上不應(yīng)該過于看重近期的經(jīng)濟(jì)走勢(shì)。

為什么呢？有兩個(gè)原因。

首先是因?yàn)楣善眱r(jià)值大部分取決于未來很多年甚至幾十年里股票產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金。今后的幾年只是其中很短的一段時(shí)間。印克說：“由于股票沒有到期日，股息隨著時(shí)間的增長(zhǎng)而增長(zhǎng)，所以股票持續(xù)的時(shí)間非常長(zhǎng)。如果我們假定某一年里股票的一半收益來自股息，另一半來自股息的增長(zhǎng)，那么大部分股票價(jià)值都來自未來的現(xiàn)金流?！?/p>

多遠(yuǎn)的未來？利用印克的假設(shè)得出，約75%的股票價(jià)值實(shí)際上取決于未來11年之后的股息收入；一半的股票價(jià)值取決于25年之后的股息；四分之一的股票價(jià)值取決于50年之后的股息收入。

也就是說，當(dāng)你看今天的股市時(shí)，真正價(jià)值中的四分之三要看2020年之后公司的盈利和股息，一半的價(jià)值要取決于公司2034年之后的表現(xiàn)。因此，你該對(duì)下個(gè)季度的公司收益投入多大的關(guān)注呢？

不要對(duì)短期的經(jīng)濟(jì)走勢(shì)關(guān)注過多，這是第二個(gè)原因。無論下個(gè)月或是明年發(fā)生什么事，經(jīng)濟(jì)或許早晚都會(huì)重新回到長(zhǎng)期的發(fā)展道路上去。如果現(xiàn)在經(jīng)濟(jì)瘋狂增長(zhǎng)，那么代價(jià)就是今后增幅會(huì)減小。如果一段時(shí)間形勢(shì)不好，最終總會(huì)好起來的。即使是災(zāi)難性的打擊也是這樣。印克寫道，據(jù)GMO計(jì)算，到20世紀(jì)40年代末，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)回到了長(zhǎng)期的增長(zhǎng)道路上，就像大蕭條從來沒有發(fā)生過一樣。

這類分析是對(duì)股市情緒的一劑有效的“解毒劑”。

華爾街又開始吃“忘憂藥”了。有一天，或許很快，經(jīng)紀(jì)人就可能開始敦促我們根據(jù)今年或明年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)情況花高價(jià)買股票了。謹(jǐn)慎的投資者可能會(huì)問：2034年的情形會(huì)怎樣呢？

實(shí)戰(zhàn)提升

核心單詞

imminent['imin?nt]adj.（危險(xiǎn)等）逼近的；即將發(fā)生的

contrarian['k?ntr?ri?n]n.逆向投資者

minuscule['min?skju:l]adj.很小的；很不重要的

expiration[，ekspi'rei??n]n.終結(jié)；期滿

devastate['dev?steit]v.垮掉；壓倒

財(cái)經(jīng)知識(shí)一點(diǎn)通

收益率（rate of return）

是指投資的回報(bào)率，一般以年度百分比表達(dá)，根據(jù)當(dāng)時(shí)市場(chǎng)價(jià)格、面值、息票利率以及距離到期日的時(shí)間計(jì)算。對(duì)公司而言，收益率指凈利潤(rùn)占使用的平均資本的百分比。

股票股息（dividend）

是以股票的方式派發(fā)的股息，通常是由公司用新增發(fā)的股票或一部分庫(kù)存股作為股息，代替現(xiàn)金分派給股東。股票股息是股東權(quán)益賬戶中不同項(xiàng)目之間的轉(zhuǎn)移，對(duì)公司的資產(chǎn)、負(fù)債、股東權(quán)益總額毫無影響。

翻譯練習(xí)

The stock market jumped 6%last week on growing hopes of an imminent economic recovery.

There is a second reason for not paying too much attention to the economy's next move.

This sort of analysis is a useful antidote to stock market moods.