當奧巴馬和莫迪惺惺相惜

Obama and Modi See Mutual Benefit in Breaking More Ice

當奧巴馬和莫迪惺惺相惜

NEW DELHI — Ever since India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, visited President Obama in the fall, the word in New Delhi has been that the two men — one a former Hindu activist, the other a former law professor — had “chemistry.”

新德里——自印度總理納倫德拉·莫迪(Narendra Modi)去年秋天與奧巴馬會面以來，新德里一直有傳言稱，曾經(jīng)分別是印度教活動人士和法學教授的兩人之間，發(fā)生了“化學反應(yīng)”。

Mr. Obama broke the ice by leaving his White House staff behind to give Mr. Modi a personal 15-minute tour of the Martin Luther King Jr. Memorial. Soon after, Mr. Modi decided to invite Mr. Obama to Republic Day celebrations this month, becoming the first Indian leader to choose an American as his guest for the spectacular annual parade.

最開始，是奧巴馬把白宮工作人員留在身后，獨自帶領(lǐng)莫迪前往小馬丁·路德·金雕像(Martin Luther King Jr. Memorial)處參觀了15分鐘。不久后，莫迪決定邀請奧巴馬出席本月的共和日(Republic Day)慶?；顒樱蔀槭孜辉谝荒暌欢鹊氖⒋箝啽缴?，邀請美國人作為主賓的印度領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人。

It is hard to say who was more taken aback: the Americans — Mr. Obama’s attendance required him to juggle the timing of the State of the Union address — or the Indians, when Mr. Obama said yes. He is scheduled to arrive in New Delhi on Sunday.

很難說當奧巴馬接受邀請時，是美國人更震驚，還是印度人更震驚，因為他還需要國情咨文(State of the Union address)的時間。奧巴馬定于周日抵達新德里。

The emerging good will between the two leaders was not preordained. Mr. Modi came into office with a formidable piece of baggage, having been blacklisted by the United States government for nearly a decade over his handling of religious riots in Gujarat, the state he led. American diplomats’ efforts to mend fences were late and awkward, and Mr. Modi is known to hold a grudge.

兩位領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人之間不斷顯現(xiàn)的善意，并非自然而然。莫迪上臺時，背負著一個巨大的污點。他曾是古吉拉特邦的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人，因為應(yīng)對該邦宗教暴亂的方式不當，在近十年的時間里，一直名列美國的黑名單之上。美國外交官修復(fù)關(guān)系的行動較晚且頗為笨拙。據(jù)外界所知，莫迪心懷不滿。

Beneath the surface of the two leaders’ personal relationship are the shifting tectonic plates of geopolitics. With the expansion of Chinese power into the Indian Ocean, American and Indian interests in the region are gradually converging. It is difficult to say which government was more quietly gratified this month when Sri Lanka’s Beijing-aligned president lost his re-election bid, making it less likely that the island off India’s coast would eventually provide a foothold for Chinese military expansion.

在兩位領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人私人關(guān)系的背后，是不斷變化的地緣政治格局。隨著中國的實力向印度洋擴張，美國和印度在該地區(qū)的利益逐漸交匯。本月，親北京的斯里蘭卡總統(tǒng)連任失敗，于是，距離印度海岸不遠的這個島國，最終為中國的軍事擴張?zhí)峁┝⒆泓c的可能性降低了。很難說美國政府和印度政府中，哪個在私下里更高興。

And aides to Mr. Modi say the yearslong discussion of his human rights record concealed an important fact: He is, compared with nearly all of the Indian leaders who preceded him, quite pro-American.

莫迪的助手表示，莫迪的人權(quán)記錄引發(fā)了多年的討論，但這卻掩蓋了一個重要的事實：與印度過去幾乎所有的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人相比，他是相當親美的。

“He was always very canny in recognizing that the United States was important for his own ambitions, and for Indian ambitions,” said Ashley Tellis, a senior associate with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and author of a new report on the two countries’ relationship. “What was missing was that connective tissue which takes what he knew in his head and translates it into action.”

“他總是很精明地認識到，不管是對他自己的野心，還是對印度的野心，美國都很重要，”卡內(nèi)基國際和平研究院(Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)高級研究員阿什利·泰利斯(Ashley Tellis)說。“缺的是那種將他頭腦里的認識轉(zhuǎn)化成行動的聯(lián)系紐帶。”泰利斯最近就兩國關(guān)系撰寫了一份報告。

The meeting between the two leaders in Washington, he said, provided that emotional turning point.

他說，兩位領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人在華盛頓舉行的會晤，提供了情感上的轉(zhuǎn)折點。

This week has brought a marathon of last-minute negotiations, mainly over issues that the United States and India have been grappling with for years.

本周兩國馬不停蹄地開展了許多最后時刻的談判，主要是圍繞美國和印度多年來一直試圖解決的問題。

Mr. Modi has styled himself as a detonator of roadblocks, and some headway may be made this time. A central obstacle is the sweeping liability law passed by Parliament in 2010 that froze plans for American corporations to construct nuclear power plants in India. Negotiators are also trying to finalize major defense purchases and to close gaps on exports of Indian pharmaceuticals, some of which the United States bans over patent disputes and safety concerns.

莫迪把自己塑造成了一個障礙消除者，這次他或許會取得一些進展。一個核心障礙是印度議會2010年通過的一項賠償責任法，該法凍結(jié)了美國企業(yè)在印度修建核電站的計劃，影響深遠。此外，談判人員還試圖敲定重大的國防采購協(xié)議，并彌合兩國就印度制藥企業(yè)對外出口藥品存在的分歧。因為專利爭端和安全顧慮，美國禁止進口部分印度藥物。

American officials, meanwhile, have pressed for India to follow China’s lead and agree to an ambitious target to limit carbon emissions, although they have played down expectations for a breakthrough. But the officials said the potential seemed to make another trip to India worthwhile, making Mr. Obama the first American president to visit twice during his tenure.

與此同時，美國官員要求印度效仿中國，同意一個宏偉的碳排放目標。不過美方已經(jīng)降低了對取得突破性進展的期望。但官員們表示，這種可能性似乎意味著再次訪問印度是值得的，這將使奧巴馬成為首位在任期間兩度訪印的美國總統(tǒng)。

“Our hope is that the chemistry between the leaders and the personal relationship can lead to positive outcomes for our country,” said Benjamin J. Rhodes, the president’s deputy national security adviser. “And so it’s worth the investment in the relationship with the country, the leader and the people of India.”

“我們希望，這兩位領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人的默契和私人關(guān)系，可以為我們的國家?guī)矸e極的成果，”奧巴馬總統(tǒng)的副國家安全顧問本杰明·J·羅茲(Benjamin J. Rhodes)說，“因此，投入更多精力，與印度政府、這位領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人，以及印度人民打好關(guān)系是值得的。”

Famously reserved, Mr. Obama does not forge close relationships with other world leaders easily. But Mr. Modi has been an exception, aides said, as the two leaders found some shared experiences.

以克制著稱的奧巴馬并不會輕易地與他國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人建立親密的關(guān)系。但幕僚們說，由于兩位領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人發(fā)現(xiàn)了一些共同的經(jīng)歷，莫迪已經(jīng)成了一個例外。

“Just the humble origins from which both of them came from and the opportunities presented to both of them” created a “certain space in which the two leaders were able to engage in these conversations,” said Philip Reiner, Mr. Obama’s top adviser on South Asia.

“單是他們二人平凡的出身，以及他們面前的機遇”，就構(gòu)成了“一個能讓兩位領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人開展這些對話的空間”，奧巴馬的南亞問題高級顧問菲利普·賴納(Philip Reiner)說。

They now stand at very different points, one man confronting the question of how he will stand in history and the other enjoying international celebrity after years of harsh criticism from the West. Mr. Modi, in particular, has given careful thought to the symbolic takeaway of the visit for each leader.

他們目前處在截然不同的位置，一個面臨著會有何種歷史地位的問題，另一個在受到西方持續(xù)多年的嚴厲批評后，正在享受國際上的贊譽。莫迪尤其仔細思考了這次訪問對于雙方有怎樣的象征意義。

“Go for the big guy himself, and his international rehabilitation is complete,” said Ashok Malik, a columnist who advised Mr. Modi’s campaign. “What does Obama get out of it? He needs a legacy like nobody’s business.”

“莫迪自己唱主角，可以全面恢復(fù)他的國際形象，”為莫迪的競選顧問、專欄作者阿肖克·馬利克(Ashok Malik)說。“而奧巴馬會從中得到什么?他需要一個與眾不同的遺產(chǎn)。”

Although most Indians have a positive view of the United States, according to a Pew Research Center poll taken last year, that enthusiasm has never penetrated into India’s government — in particular its defense establishment. The roots of this are deep: The United States has sold advanced weaponry to Pakistan and China, two neighbors which India has gone to war with, and, after India conducted nuclear tests, imposed sanctions on the Indian military.

皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)去年的調(diào)查顯示，多數(shù)印度人對美國的印象是積極的，但盡管如此，這種好感沒有滲透進印度政府，尤其是國防部門。這種現(xiàn)象有著很深的根源：美國向巴基斯坦和中國出售過高級武器，而印度曾經(jīng)與這兩個鄰國發(fā)生過戰(zhàn)爭。此外，在印度開展核試驗之后，美國對印度軍方實施了制裁。

That this gap persists will be demonstrated on Monday, when Mr. Obama is to stand beside Mr. Modi at the Republic Day parade for an extensive display of Indian military hardware, much of it supplied by Russia. He will also be reminded of India’s pressing need for investment in infrastructure, an area where the United States cannot begin to compete with China and its vast, state-controlled reserves of foreign currency.

這種分歧一直存在，這一點在周一就將得到展示。屆時，奧巴馬將站在莫迪旁邊，參加印度共和日的閱兵，活動中將大規(guī)模展示印度軍方的裝備，其中很大一部分是由俄羅斯提供的。奧巴馬還將意識到印度對基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資的迫切需求，在這一領(lǐng)域，美國已經(jīng)無法與中國，以及中國由國家控制的外匯儲備相競爭。

Indeed, the most important message from next week’s meeting could end up being a more subtle one: that the relationship is turning, as slowly as an oil tanker, toward a closer, more predictable long-term alignment.

的確，下周的會面最終傳遞的最重要訊息可能會更加微妙：兩國關(guān)系正在發(fā)生轉(zhuǎn)變，走向一種更親密、更可以預(yù)期的長期聯(lián)盟，盡管像油輪轉(zhuǎn)彎一樣緩慢。