17世紀(jì)，瘋狂的荷蘭郁金香熱

在17世紀(jì)初，全球在郁金香狂熱中經(jīng)歷了首個(gè)重大的泡沫經(jīng)濟(jì)。郁金香狂熱出現(xiàn)在17世紀(jì)的荷蘭，大約開始于1624年，在1636年至1637年達(dá)到了高潮。

Although the extent of how widespread Tulip mania was is still largely debated, it’s undeniable that the price of tulip bulbs soared to ridiculous heights – with a single tulip bulb often being worth more than a skilled tradesman’s yearly wage!

雖然關(guān)于究竟郁金香狂熱的影響范圍有多廣仍有待商榷，但不可否認(rèn)的是郁金香花的售價(jià)飆升到了難以置信的高度——單獨(dú)一個(gè)郁金香球莖的價(jià)格能超過一位嫻熟的商人的年薪。

So why did the Dutch people lose their mind over tulips?

那么是因?yàn)槭裁醋尯商m人對(duì)郁金香著了魔?

The coloration and varying patterns of the tulip, originally imported from the Ottoman Empire (now Turkey), was unlike anything seen by 17th Century Dutch horticulturists, being far richer and lusher in color than European flowers. The Dutch culture quickly became infatuated with tulips and the garden became a symbol and status and wealth.

不同顏色和花型的郁金香最初被從奧斯曼帝國(現(xiàn)土耳其)進(jìn)口到了荷蘭，17世紀(jì)的荷蘭園藝家從未見過如此的花，它的色彩遠(yuǎn)比其他歐洲花卉要更濃郁和豐富。很快荷蘭的文化就拜倒在郁金香面前，而且花園成為了地位和財(cái)富的象征。

Another factor as to why the Dutch tulip boom happened was due to the life cycle of the tulip itself. The mother bulb of a tulip only lasts a few years and can only produce two or three clones per year. It also takes roughly seven years to grow a tulip to maturity from a seed. Due to these two factors the ability to supply tulips was minimal, whilst the demand had skyrocketed, meaning that the prices of tulips had also skyrocketed due to the sharp spike in the market between the supply and demand of tulips.

另外一個(gè)荷蘭郁金香繁榮的因素是由于郁金香本身的生長周期。郁金香的母球莖只能生長幾年，并且每年只能分生出2-3個(gè)個(gè)體。而且郁金香從種子長成成株大約要7年時(shí)間。由于這兩個(gè)因素，郁金香的供應(yīng)能力很低，但是需求卻在飛漲，這就意味著由于急劇供不應(yīng)求導(dǎo)致郁金香的價(jià)格也跟著飆升。

Throughout the 1630’s, the price of tulip bulbs rose steadily as more and more people, mostly wealthy merchants and tradesmen rather than members of nobility or traditional investors, entered the flowery market. As it was a market mostly operated in by independent traders and not nobility, tulip trading typically took place in the streets or taverns, or even at auctions, rather than the Dutch stock exchange.

整個(gè)17世紀(jì)30年代，郁金香球莖的價(jià)格隨著越來越多的人涌入花卉市場而穩(wěn)定的上漲，這些人大多是富裕的商人和零售商，而不是貴族成員或是傳統(tǒng)投資者。由于郁金香的市場基本由個(gè)體商戶操控而不是貴族，郁金香的交易經(jīng)常會(huì)在街頭或者客棧中進(jìn)行，乃至在拍賣所里，而不是在荷蘭證券交易所內(nèi)。

By 1636, even the lowest quality or most common tulip bulbs were worth a small fortune, with the average price being roughly 160 Guilders, rising to 200 Guilders at the peak of Tulipmania.

到了1636年，就算品質(zhì)最次或者最常見的郁金香球莖也能值不少錢，平均價(jià)格大約在160荷蘭盾，到了郁金香狂熱期漲到了峰值的200荷蘭盾。

Although it’s difficult to calculate how much that is, the average tradesmen would bring home about 150 Guilders a year. During the peak of Tulip mania, most bulbs would pass from buyer to buyer simply for profit without ever being planted, with some going through up to 10 different vendors a day.

雖然很難去計(jì)算在現(xiàn)在合多少錢，不過那時(shí)的商人的平均年收入大約150荷蘭盾。在郁金香狂熱的頂峰時(shí)期，大多數(shù)的郁金香在買家之間轉(zhuǎn)手只為了利潤，而從未被栽培到土中，有一些在一天中甚至?xí)诓煌馁u家間轉(zhuǎn)手高達(dá)10次之多。

The most famous incident of the Tulipmania craze was when seven orphaned children auctioned off their inheritance from their deceased father. That inheritance was 70 tulip bulbs, including an incredibly rare Violetten Admirael van Enkuizen bulb, which sold for 5,200 Guilders on its own. The auction total was 53,000 Guilders, all for 70 bulbs.

在郁金香狂熱中最著名的事件是有7個(gè)孤兒拍賣從他們離世的父親手中繼承來的遺產(chǎn)。遺產(chǎn)是70個(gè)郁金香球莖，其中包括一個(gè)非常稀有的Violetten Admirael van Enkhuizen(恩克赫伊曾的紫色海軍上將)球莖，單這一個(gè)球莖就賣出了5200荷蘭盾。全部70個(gè)郁金香球莖的拍賣所得一共53000荷蘭盾。

In 1635, 40 bulbs sold at a different auction for 100,000 Guilders. Just to reiterate a typical skilled tradesman would have been earning roughly 150 Guilders a year.

1635年的時(shí)候，有40個(gè)球莖在另外一個(gè)拍賣會(huì)拍出了10萬荷蘭盾的高價(jià)。需要重申一下的是通常一個(gè)經(jīng)驗(yàn)豐富的商人在當(dāng)時(shí)一年大約只能賺到150荷蘭盾

Tulip bulbs were also known during this time to be traded for goods rather than outright sold, and there’s one specific instance of a very rare tulip bulb being traded for four fat oxen, eight fat pigs, twelve fat sheep, two hogsheads of wine, four turns of beer, one thousand pounds of cheese, two tons of butter, a bed, a silver cup, a set of fine clothes, two lasts of wheat, and four lasts of rye. All of this was valued in cost at roughly 1,500 – 2,000 Guilders!

在這期間郁金香球莖還會(huì)用于交換其他貨物，而不是只是當(dāng)做商品賣出，而且有一個(gè)很詳細(xì)的例子，一株非常稀有的郁金香球莖可以交換4頭肥牛、8頭肥豬、12頭肥羊、2大桶紅酒、4桶啤酒、1000磅的芝士、2噸的黃油、1張床、1個(gè)銀制杯子、1套做工精細(xì)的衣服、2 lasts(2.5噸)的麥子和4 lasts(5噸)的黑麥。(last是荷蘭計(jì)重單位，在17世紀(jì)的時(shí)候，一last相當(dāng)于1250公斤。)所有這些加起來一共價(jià)值大約1500-2000荷蘭盾。

There were also many abundant cases of tulip bulbs being used to purchase houses, land or farms, with one case of a Semper Augustus bulb being traded for 12 acres of farmland.

用郁金香球莖購買房屋、土地或者農(nóng)場這樣的例子不勝枚舉，其中有一個(gè)例子只用了一個(gè)Semper Augustus(永恒奧古都斯)球莖就購買到了12公頃的農(nóng)田。

However, as all financial bubbles grow, so do they pop. And the Tulipmania bubble popped hard. It all started in the city of Haarlem at a routine tulip bulb auction when an investor didn’t show up to pay for his tulip purchase. This sent the market into a worried frenzy over the fact that there no longer seemed to be anybody buying tulip bulbs to actually obtain tulip flowers, but rather that everyone was simply buying them to turn them around and sell them.

不過，隨著整體經(jīng)濟(jì)泡沫的增長，最終氣泡破裂了。郁金香的泡沫破裂的很厲害。一切始于在哈勒姆一個(gè)例行的郁金香球莖拍賣會(huì)上，一位投資者沒有現(xiàn)身來為購買的郁金香付款。人們認(rèn)為所有人買郁金香只是為了轉(zhuǎn)售它們，而似乎不再是為了真正擁有它們，這使得市場陷入了擔(dān)憂的恐慌之中。

Within days the panic had become widespread and the tulip market started to collapse in on itself. Within weeks tulips were now worth less than the 1% of the prices they had once been worth.

幾天內(nèi)這個(gè)恐慌就傳播開來了，郁金香市場開始自行崩塌。幾周內(nèi)，郁金香的售價(jià)就跌到了不足原先價(jià)格的1%。

Despite the hard crash of the tulip market, the fallout wasn’t too major. As most of the trading had taken place at Main Street and not at the stock exchange or between nobility, the overall Dutch economy wasn’t too affected by the bursting of the tulip bubble.

盡管郁金香市場遭遇了猛擊，但是附帶影響并沒有很重大。由于大部分的交易都在Main Street進(jìn)行而不是在證券交易所或是貴族間進(jìn)行的，因此郁金香泡沫的破裂對(duì)荷蘭經(jīng)濟(jì)影響并不是很大。

Tulips are still synonymous with Dutch culture, and in the Netherlands the third Saturday of every January is “Nationale Tulpendag,” or National Tulip Day for English speakers. To mark this day, Dam Square in Amsterdam is filled with approximately 200,000 tulips in an extravagant display and people travel from all over the Netherlands, and the world, to see it and queue up so they can pick some to take with them.

郁金香仍是荷蘭文化的代名詞，并且荷蘭每年1月份的第三個(gè)星期六都被定為了國家郁金香日。為了慶祝這一天，阿姆斯特丹的水壩廣場會(huì)奢侈的陳列出大約20萬株郁金香，全荷蘭乃至全世界的人都會(huì)前來觀賞，并排隊(duì)等候希望能采幾只帶走。