地震專家對(duì)尼泊爾強(qiáng)震有“先知”

地震專家對(duì)尼泊爾強(qiáng)震有“先知”

Nepal's devastating earthquake was the disaster experts knew was coming.

尼泊爾遭遇的此次毀滅性地震是在地震專家預(yù)料之中。

Just a week ago, about 50 earthquake and social scientists from around the world came to Kathmandu, Nepal, to figure out how to get this poor, congested, overdeveloped, shoddily built area to prepare better for the big one, a repeat of the 1934 temblor that leveled this city. They knew they were racing the clock, but they didn't know when what they feared would strike.

僅在一周前，來自世界各地的約五十名地震學(xué)家和社會(huì)學(xué)家來到尼泊爾首都加德滿都討論，如果1934年那場(chǎng)將這座城市夷為平地的大地震再次上演，如何才能讓這個(gè)貧窮、擁擠、過度開發(fā)且建筑粗制濫造的地區(qū)更妥善地做好準(zhǔn)備。專家們知道自己在和時(shí)間賽跑，但他們不知道令人擔(dān)憂的情況何時(shí)會(huì)出現(xiàn)。

"It was sort of a nightmare waiting to happen," said seismologist James Jackson, head of the earth sciences department at the University of Cambridge in England. "Physically and geologically what happened is exactly what we thought would happen."

“有點(diǎn)像遲早會(huì)成真的噩夢(mèng)，”英國(guó)劍橋大學(xué)地球科學(xué)系主任、地震學(xué)家詹姆斯•杰克遜(James Jackson)說，“從物理學(xué)和地質(zhì)學(xué)的角度來說，發(fā)生的事情完全在我們的預(yù)料之中。”

But he didn't expect the massive quake that struck Saturday to happen so soon. The magnitude 7.8 earthquake killed more than 1,900 and counting and caused widespread destruction.

但杰克遜沒有料到這場(chǎng)大地震會(huì)來得如此之快，在周六降臨。這場(chǎng)里氏7.8級(jí)地震已經(jīng)造成了1900人死亡(死亡人數(shù)仍在上升)以及大面積的破壞。

"I was walking through that very area where that earthquake was and I thought at the very time that the area was heading for trouble," said Jackson, lead scientist for Earthquakes Without Frontiers, a group that tries to make Asia more able to bounce back from these disasters and was having the meeting.

“地震無國(guó)界”是一個(gè)幫助亞洲從災(zāi)難中重新振作的團(tuán)體，它組織召開了這次專家會(huì)議。其主席科學(xué)家杰克遜說：“我曾到過地震發(fā)生的地方，那時(shí)我就在想那兒可能會(huì)有災(zāi)難發(fā)生。”

A Kathmandu earthquake has long been feared, not just because of the natural seismic fault, but because of the local, more human conditions that make it worse.

人們?cè)缇蛽?dān)心加德滿都會(huì)遭遇大地震，不僅是因?yàn)樗幱诘卣饠鄬樱€因?yàn)楦嗳藶榈囊蛩貢?huì)導(dǎo)致災(zāi)難更嚴(yán)重。

The same size shaking can have bigger effects on different parts of the globe because of building construction and population and that's something the U.S. Geological Survey calculates ahead of time. So the same level of severe shaking would cause 10 to 30 people to die per million residents in California, but 1,000 maybe more in Nepal, and up to 10,000 in parts of Pakistan, India, Iran and China, said USGS seismologist David Wald.

同樣面積的震動(dòng)會(huì)因?yàn)榉课萁ㄖ腿丝诔砻芙o全球的一些地方帶來更大的影響。這一點(diǎn)是美國(guó)地質(zhì)勘探局很早之前計(jì)算出來的。因此，勘探局的地震學(xué)家大衛(wèi)·瓦爾德(David Wald)說，同樣程度的強(qiáng)震，如果發(fā)生在加利福尼亞，每一百萬人會(huì)有10-30人喪生，而在尼泊爾，可能導(dǎo)致1000人遇難，在巴基斯坦、印度、伊朗和中國(guó)的一些地方，可能會(huì)造成多達(dá)一萬人死亡。

While the trigger of the disaster is natural — an earthquake — "the consequences are very much man-made," Jackson said. Except for landslides, which in this case are a serious problem, "it's buildings that kill people not earthquakes," Jackson said. If you lived in a flat desert with no water, an earthquake wouldn't harm you, but then few people want to live there.

盡管地震發(fā)生的原因是自然原因，“但它造成的后果大多是人為的，”杰克遜說。除了山體滑坡，在這種情況下，這會(huì)是一個(gè)很嚴(yán)重的問題。“地震中殺死人的是建筑，而不是地震本身，”他說。如果你住在平坦干旱的荒漠里，那地震根本就不會(huì)對(duì)你造成任何傷害，但是極少數(shù)人愿意住在那里。

"The real problem in Asia is how people have concentrated in dangerous places," Jackson said.

杰克遜說：“亞洲國(guó)家面臨的真正問題是在一些危險(xiǎn)區(qū)域，人口十分密集。”

Kathmandu was warned, first by the Earth itself: this is the fifth significant quake there in the last 205 years, including the massive 1934 one.

這是地球第一次對(duì)加德滿都發(fā)出警告：此次地震是205年以來的第五場(chǎng)大地震，包括1934年的那場(chǎng)。

"They knew they had a problem but it was so large they didn't where to start, how to start," said Hari Kumar, southeast Asia regional coordinator for GeoHazards International, a group that works on worldwide quake risks. Kumar, Jackson and Wald said Nepal was making progress on reducing its vulnerability to earthquakes, but not quickly or big enough.

國(guó)家自然災(zāi)害防制組織(一個(gè)致力于研究世界地震風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的組織)東南亞地區(qū)事務(wù)協(xié)調(diào)員哈里·庫(kù)馬爾(Hari Kumar)說：“他們知道自己的問題，但正因?yàn)閱栴}太大，他們不知從何著手，如何著手。”庫(kù)馬爾、杰克遜和瓦爾德說，尼泊爾有在努力提高自身對(duì)地震的抵抗力，但效果不太明顯，還需要些日子。

Kumar's group on April 12 updated a late 1990s report summarizing the Kathmandu Valley risks.

庫(kù)馬爾小組在4月12日更新了一篇20世紀(jì)90年代晚期的報(bào)告，總結(jié)了加德滿都河谷的地質(zhì)災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

"With an annual population growth rate of 6.5 percent and one of the highest urban densities in the world, the 1.5 million people living in the Kathmandu Valley were clearly facing a serious and growing earthquake risk," the report said, laying out "the problem" the valley faces. "It was also clear that the next large earthquake to strike near the Valley would cause significantly greater loss of life, structural damage, and economic hardship than past earthquakes had inflicted."

報(bào)告稱：“加德滿都河谷每年人口增長(zhǎng)率達(dá)6.5%，是世界上城市密度最高的地區(qū)之一。在這里居住的150萬人明顯面臨著嚴(yán)重且日益增加的地震風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。”報(bào)告將河谷面臨的“問題”一一展開，“很明顯，和以往的地震帶來的災(zāi)害相比，下一次襲擊河谷附近的大地震會(huì)造成更重大的傷亡損失，建筑破壞和經(jīng)濟(jì)困境。”

And for years there were no building codes and rampant development so homes and other structures could be built without any regards to earthquakes, the report said. There are now building codes, but that doesn't help the older structures, and the codes aren't overly strong, Kumar said.

報(bào)告稱，多年來，這里沒有建筑規(guī)范，但開發(fā)得很快，所以住宅和其他建筑在建造時(shí)沒有任何防震考慮。庫(kù)馬爾說，如今有了建筑規(guī)范，但這對(duì)老建筑并沒有什么影響，并且規(guī)范實(shí)施力度也不大。

It's actually even made worse because of local inheritance laws that require property be split equally among all sons, Jackson said. So that means buildings are split vertically among brothers making very thin rickety homes that need more space so people add insecure living space on additional floors, he said.

杰克遜說，實(shí)際上，當(dāng)?shù)氐睦^承法使問題雪上加霜。法律要求房產(chǎn)應(yīng)該平分給所有的兒子。他補(bǔ)充道，這就意味著建筑會(huì)在兄弟間平分，導(dǎo)致房屋結(jié)構(gòu)不穩(wěn)，如果需要更多空間的話，人們就會(huì)私自加建樓層。

"The construction is appalling in Kathmandu," Jackson said.

杰克遜說：“加德滿都的建筑令人膽戰(zhàn)心驚。”

Poverty and pollution make the problem worse, Jackson said. That's because people don't spend time worrying about some future earthquake because they have more pressing problems.

杰克遜說，貧窮和污染使問題更惡化。正因?yàn)槿藗兠媾R著更緊迫的問題，所以沒時(shí)間擔(dān)憂未來可能發(fā)生的地震。

"If you live in the Kathmandu Valley you have other priorities, daily threats and daily nasty things happen to you in terms of air quality, water quality, pollution, traffic and just poverty," Jackson said. "But it doesn't mean that the earthquakes go away."

“如果你住在加德滿都河谷，你會(huì)優(yōu)先考慮其他一些事情，每天會(huì)面臨威脅以及討厭的事情，比如空氣質(zhì)量、飲用水質(zhì)量、污染、交通以及貧困，”杰克遜說，“但這不意味著地震就會(huì)消失。”

Vocabulary

seismologist: 地震學(xué)家

seismic fault: 地震斷層

rickety: 易垮的