希拉里，太出名未必是件好事

　　Hillary Clinton May Not Need a Second Chance to Make a First Impression

　　希拉里，太出名未必是件好事

　　Jeb Bush has his famous last name as a calling card, for better or worse. But Scott Walker’s name does not ring many bells outside Wisconsin.

　　無論是好是壞，杰布·布什(Jeb Bush)都有一個響亮的姓氏作為名片。但斯科特·沃克(Scott Walker)在威斯康星州以外少為人知。

　　Ted Cruz is not even well known in Texas.

　　特德·克魯茲(Ted Cruz)更是在德克薩斯州也聲名不著。

　　Republican presidential hopefuls will spend millions of dollars trying to get voters to remember their names and something that sets them apart. But the one White House contender who needs no introduction faces a different sort of problem:

　　共和黨總統(tǒng)候選人將花費數以百萬計的美元，努力讓選民記住他們的名字，記住他們的與眾不同之處。但是，有一個家喻戶曉的白宮角逐者卻面臨著截然不同的問題：

　　Everybody knows Hillary Rodham Clinton.

　　每個人都知道希拉里·羅德姆·克林頓(Hillary Rodham Clinton)是誰。

　　She did not just co-star in a national soap opera during her husband’s eight-year presidency: She reinvented herself as a senator from the nation’s biggest media market, New York; reintroduced herself again, this time to the nation, as a presidential candidate in 2008 and then remade herself into the country’s chief diplomat.

　　她不僅僅在丈夫擔任美國總統(tǒng)的八年任期中，聯(lián)合主演了一出國家肥皂劇，她還重塑自己，當上了全國最大的媒體市場紐約州的聯(lián)邦參議員;然后再次登場，成為2008年的美國總統(tǒng)候選人，之后，她又成為了美國的首席外交官。

　　She never left the stage.

　　她從來沒有離開過舞臺。

　　Not since Richard M. Nixon mounted a comeback in 1968, historians and pollsters say, has a candidate entered a presidential contest with so low a bar for name recognition or so high a bar for changing voters’ opinions.

　　歷史學家和民意調查者說，事實上，自從1968年理查德·M·尼克松(Richard M. Nixon)嘗試東山再起之后，就沒有哪個總統(tǒng)候選人像她這樣，在剛進入競賽場的時候知名度就如此之高，在影響選民看法方面又如此不易。

　　Their specific challenges are hardly similar: Nixon needed to recover from a crushing defeat that sent him into the political wilderness. Mrs. Clinton merely needs to rekindle interest in her as a candidate after a short hiatus from politics and a four-year tenure as President Obama’s emissary on the world stage.

　　兩人面臨的具體挑戰(zhàn)罕有相似之處：尼克松需要從令他陷入政治荒野的慘敗中恢復過來。而希拉里·克林頓在世界舞臺上為奧巴馬擔任了四年的使者之后，經歷了短暫的政治沉寂，她僅僅需要重新點燃人們對她作為總統(tǒng)候選人的興趣。

　　But the campaign playbooks of Nixon and Mrs. Clinton seem to share some pages.

　　但是，尼克松和希拉里的競選劇本也有一些共通點。

　　Nixon strove to show a more casual side by bypassing journalists and staging town-hall-style events — orchestrated by his media consultant, Roger Ailes — at theaters across the country packed with friendly audiences. Taking softball questions, he kept to his talking points and struck television viewers as more relaxed than the sweaty man they remembered from his debates against John F. Kennedy in 1960.

　　尼克松力圖展現(xiàn)自己更隨意的一面，在媒體顧問羅杰·艾爾斯(Roger Ailes)的策劃安排下，他避開了記者，前往全國各地的影劇院，參加市政廳大會類型的活動，那里擠滿了友好的觀眾。他回答那些容易回答的問題，并一直緊緊圍繞自己的談話要點。在電視觀眾眼中，他顯得更加輕松自如了，與他們記憶中那個在1960年與約翰·F·肯尼迪(John F. Kennedy)辯論時滿頭是汗的尼克松不一樣。

　　“A lot of people who thought they’d made up their minds about him saw a different version,” said Kenneth L. Khachigian, a speechwriter for Nixon and later for Ronald Reagan. “That’s a prime example of someone who had a lot of perceived political baggage and who remade himself.”

　　“很多人自以為對他的看法已經定型，但他們看到了一個不同的形象，”肯尼斯·L·哈契金(Kenneth L. Khachigian)說，他曾先后為尼克松和羅納德·里根(Ronald Reagan)撰寫過演講稿。“這是一個絕佳的例子：一個在許多人眼里背負著諸多政治包袱的人，重塑了自身的形象。”

　　Mrs. Clinton, too, has been ducking reporters and instead holding round-table discussions with carefully chosen voters in early voting states. (Aides say the questions those voters ask are not screened.) She has used the sessions to share lesser-known vignettes from her past: her mother’s impoverished upbringing; her middle-class childhood in Chicago; her work in the 1970s as an advocate for children; her juggling work and child rearing as a young lawyer in Arkansas.

　　希拉里也一樣，她一邊回避記者，一邊在可以提前投票的州與精心挑選的選民召開圓桌討論會。(助手們說，這些選民提出的問題沒有經過篩選。)她利用這些討論，分享自己鮮為人知的點滴往事：她母親在貧困中長大的狀況;她在芝加哥過的中產階級童年生活;她在上世紀70年代做的兒童權益倡導工作;年輕時在阿肯色州當律師期間，她如何兼顧工作和孩子。

　　On Tuesday, she spoke to small-business owners in Cedar Falls, Iowa, part of her second swing through the state.

　　本周二，她在愛荷華州錫達福爾斯向一些小企業(yè)主發(fā)言，這是她在該州各處的第二輪拉選票活動的一個環(huán)節(jié)。

　　At one event in Las Vegas, she sat with high school students whose parents are undocumented immigrants. It was a canny move: Young people and Latinos are two demographic groups whose opinions Mrs. Clinton may still be able to shape, Democratic pollsters say.

　　在拉斯維加斯一個活動中，她與一些父母是非法移民的高中生座談。此舉相當精明：據民主黨的民調專家說，對于年輕人和拉美裔這兩個群體，希拉里仍然有可能影響他們的意見。

　　There are not many others.

　　目前，這樣的群體并不多了。

　　Only 1 percent of voters have never heard of Mrs. Clinton, a CNN poll found in March (suggesting the network’s pollsters managed to reach a few people living in caves).

　　CNN今年3月的民調發(fā)現(xiàn)，只有1%的選民從來沒有聽說過希拉里(說明該臺的民調聯(lián)系到了幾個住在洞里的人)。

　　A larger number, but still just 11 percent of all voters, said they did not know enough about her to form an opinion, according to a New York Times-CBS poll published this month. By contrast, 43 percent said they did not know enough about Mr. Bush, the best-known Republican contender.

　　表示對希拉里了解不多、不足以對她形成看法的選民人數雖然多一些，但也只有11%，《紐約時報》和CBS的本月初公布的一項民意調查顯示。相比之下，43%的人表示他們對最出名的共和黨競爭者布什的了解還不夠多。

　　On the bright side for Mrs. Clinton, she enters the race with a devoted base of supporters, mostly women, who appear solidly in her corner. Women in big states like Ohio and Pennsylvania heavily favored Mrs. Clinton in the 2008 Democratic primaries, driving her defeat of Mr. Obama in those states.

　　對于希拉里，有利的一面是，她在進入這場角逐時，就有忠心耿耿的支持者，其中大部分是堅定地站在她這邊的女性。在俄亥俄和賓夕法尼亞等重要州，女性選民在2008年民主黨初選中大力支持希拉里，幫助她在這些州擊敗了奧巴馬。

　　Mrs. Clinton remains highly popular with African-Americans, college-educated women and single women, said Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster.

　　在非裔美國人、擁有大學學歷的女性，以及單身女性中，希拉里仍然有非常高的人氣，民主黨民意調查專家塞琳達·萊克(Celinda Lake)說。

　　Scott Keeter, director of survey research at the Pew Research Center, said Mrs. Clinton’s profile in the polls was like that of an incumbent facing re-election.

　　皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)主任斯科特·克特爾(Scott Keeter)說，希拉里在民調中的狀況，類似于現(xiàn)任官員在爭取連任。

　　“We know from political science that a significant majority of the electorate, upward of 90 percent, know how they’ll vote,” he said. “You’re talking about 10 to 15 percent of the electorate who are in play, and then you have to factor in enthusiasm and turnout.”

　　“我們從政治學中知道，絕大多數的選民都知道自己會投誰的票，這個比例可以高達90%，”他說。“你要關注的是大約10%到15%的選民如何投票，然后你必須考慮到積極性和投票率的因素。”

　　The slivers of swing voters Mrs. Clinton’s campaign hopes she can sway include married women in the suburbs. “They love her experience,” Ms. Lake said, “and they like the idea of having a woman president.”

　　希拉里的競選活動想爭取一些搖擺不定的選民群體，其中包括郊區(qū)的已婚婦女。“她們喜愛她的經歷，”萊克說，“她們樂意有一個女總統(tǒng)。”

　　The unknown “wild card” is whether Mrs. Clinton’s chance to make history as the first female president will motivate voters who may be less inclined to support her, Mr. Keeter said.

　　未知的“萬能牌”是：希拉里創(chuàng)造歷史、成為美國首位女總統(tǒng)的機會，是否會激發(fā)那些可能不太傾向于支持她的選民的熱情，克特爾說。

　　Similarly, voters under 30 years old were far more likely to be undecided or to say they did not have an opinion of Mrs. Clinton, according to the Times-CBS poll.

　　同樣，據《紐約時報》和CBS的民調顯示，30歲以下的選民有遠遠更大的可能尚未決定如何投票，或者尚未形成對希拉里的看法。

　　“Even though she’s so well known, there’s an aspect of a slate that can be written upon,” said Jennifer Granholm, the former governor of Michigan, who is co-chairwoman of Priorities USA Action, a pro-Clinton “super PAC.” “Young people may need to be reminded about her.”

　　“即使她已經如此知名，但仍然可能在某個方面進一步給人留下印象，”密歇根州前州長、“優(yōu)先美國行動”(Priorities USA Action)的聯(lián)合主席詹妮弗·格蘭霍姆(Jennifer Granholm)說，“可能需要就她向年輕人做出提醒。”“優(yōu)先美國行動”是親希拉里的“超級政治行動委員會”(super PAC)。

　　The 2016 campaign is still in its early days, making this the prime time for the candidates to try to shape what the voters think of them. The later it gets, the harder that can be.

　　2016年的競選活動仍處于初期階段，因此現(xiàn)在正是黃金時間，候選人可以嘗試影響選民對自己的看法。這件事越到后面就會越困難。

　　In 2004, the Democratic nominee, John Kerry, who battled an image of being effete, took a well-publicized hunting trip dressed in camouflage, hoping to show he could relate to voters who drive pickup trucks with gun racks.

　　2004年，人們覺得民主黨總統(tǒng)候選人約翰·克里(John Kerry)看上去疲憊不堪，為了消除這種印象，克里做了一次廣為人知的狩獵之旅，他身著迷彩服，希望展示自己可以與那些配備槍架的皮卡車車主選民有相通之處。