希臘公投結(jié)果引發(fā)市場(chǎng)悲觀，全球股市周一普跌

European and Asian stock markets dropped on Monday but did not plunge, as investors reacted with muted dismay to the results of the Greek referendum and showed nervousness about steep declines in China’s stock market over the past three weeks.

由于投資者對(duì)希臘公投結(jié)果的較弱不滿反應(yīng)，加上對(duì)中國(guó)股市在過(guò)去三周的急劇下降有所擔(dān)憂，歐洲和亞洲的股市周一出現(xiàn)下落，但并未暴跌。

The Euro Stoxx 50 index, which groups blue-chip shares from across the eurozone, was down 1.9 percent in afternoon trading, after falling more than 2 percent at the opening. In London, the benchmark FTSE 100 index had dipped by only 0.6 percent in the afternoon.

代表整個(gè)歐元區(qū)主要藍(lán)籌股的歐元斯托克50指數(shù)在下午的交易中跌了1.9%，該指數(shù)開(kāi)盤時(shí)的跌幅曾超過(guò)2%。在倫敦，作為基準(zhǔn)的金融時(shí)報(bào)100指數(shù)午后下跌只有0.6%。

Less than an hour before the opening in New York, Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures were down 0.8 percent, suggesting that stocks would fall modestly at the start.

在紐約股市開(kāi)盤前一小時(shí)，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)期貨下跌了0.8%，這表明股市將以小幅下跌開(kāi)始交易。

The euro slipped less than 1 percent to $1.1018.

歐元匯率下降了不到1%，歐元兌美元為1.1018。

In Asia on Monday, the Shanghai market jumped sharply in early trading as the Chinese government poured money into brokerage firms to help them and their customers buy shares. The market leapt 7.8 percent at the start, but it surrendered half of those gains in the first 10 minutes of trading and closed 2.4 percent higher. The smaller Shenzhen stock market also started strongly but fell 2.7 percent by the end of trading.

周一在亞洲，隨著中國(guó)政府將資金注入經(jīng)紀(jì)公司，幫助它們及其客戶購(gòu)買股票，上海股市的早盤大幅攀升。上證指數(shù)開(kāi)盤時(shí)曾躍升7.8%，但在最初10分鐘的交易中丟掉了漲幅的一半，最終以2.4%的漲幅收盤。較小的深圳股市開(kāi)盤時(shí)的漲幅亦非常強(qiáng)烈，但最終以下降2.7%結(jié)束交易。

Trading in Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures indicated that stocks would fall slightly at the opening in New York.

標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)期貨交易表明，紐約股市將在開(kāi)盤時(shí)小幅下跌。

Philippe Gijsels, head of research at BNP Paribas Fortis Global Markets in Brussels, said the relatively subdued reaction showed “the market has gotten used to the strange things that have been going on with Greece.”

位于布魯塞爾的法國(guó)巴黎銀行富通全球市場(chǎng)部研究主管菲利普·海賽爾斯(Philippe Gijsels)表示，相對(duì)較弱的反應(yīng)表明，“市場(chǎng)對(duì)希臘持續(xù)出現(xiàn)的怪事已習(xí)以為常。”

He said it also reflected investors’ confidence that Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank, would take whatever action was necessary to soothe tensions at a moment of crisis.

他說(shuō)，這也反映了投資者對(duì)歐洲央行行長(zhǎng)馬里奧·德拉吉(Mario Draghi)的信心，相信他會(huì)采取任何必要行動(dòng)，來(lái)緩解危機(jī)時(shí)刻的緊張氣氛。

“That’s preventing markets from going down too much,” Mr. Gijsels added.

“這防止了市場(chǎng)的過(guò)多下跌，”海賽爾斯補(bǔ)充道。

That sentiment was reflected in the bond market’s muted response. Bonds in Italy, Portugal and Spain, seen as the most exposed to any potential contagion from the Greek crisis, all fell, with their yields, which move in the opposition direction of prices, spiking higher — indicating that those governments’ borrowing costs could rise.

這種情緒也反映在債券市場(chǎng)的較弱反應(yīng)上。意大利、葡萄牙和西班牙被認(rèn)為最容易受希臘危機(jī)潛在蔓延的影響，這三國(guó)的債券都出現(xiàn)了下跌，導(dǎo)致其收益率上揚(yáng)(債券收益率與價(jià)格的走向相反)，意味著這些國(guó)家政府的借貸成本可能會(huì)上升。

In contrast, yields on British, German and United States government bonds fell, as investors turned toward assets they considered safer.

與之相比，由于投資者把資金轉(zhuǎn)向他們認(rèn)為更安全的資產(chǎn)，英國(guó)、德國(guó)和美國(guó)的國(guó)債收益率下跌。

The major exception was in yields on Greek bonds, which have been little traded since the country’s financial markets were closed last week. The price of the Greek two-year crashed, to leave an astonishingly high yield of 48 percent — almost 15 percentage points higher than on Friday. That is in stark contrast to a yield of less than 1 percent for comparable German debt.

一個(gè)主要的例外是希臘債券的收益率，自從該國(guó)金融市場(chǎng)上周關(guān)閉以來(lái)，希臘債券的交易幾乎停止。希臘兩年期債券的價(jià)格崩潰，導(dǎo)致其收益率上升到驚人的48%，比上周五高出近15個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。這與收益率不到1%的德國(guó)同類債券形成鮮明對(duì)比。

The Greek bonds’ movement has little practical effect on the government’s borrowing costs, as the country has been shut out of the capital markets and has issued no new bonds lately. But their plummeting value further undermines the Greek banks, which are the biggest private holders of the country’s sovereign debt.

希臘債券市場(chǎng)的動(dòng)向?qū)ζ湔慕栀J成本沒(méi)有什么實(shí)際影響，因?yàn)樵搰?guó)已被排除出資本市場(chǎng)，最近沒(méi)有發(fā)行過(guò)任何新債券。但債券價(jià)格的暴跌進(jìn)一步削弱了希臘銀行，希臘銀行是該國(guó)國(guó)債的最大私人持有者。

And because the Greek banks use their government’s bonds as collateral against loans from the European Central Bank, the plunge could make it even more difficult for the central bank to agree to continue lending to the banks.

而且，由于希臘銀行用其持有的政府債券作為從歐洲央行得到貸款的抵押物品，債券價(jià)格的急劇下跌可能會(huì)讓歐洲央行同意向希臘銀行繼續(xù)提供貸款變得更難。

The European Central Bank was to discuss its response to the latest developments later on Monday.

歐洲央行將在周一晚些時(shí)候就如何應(yīng)對(duì)最新進(jìn)展進(jìn)行討論。

Addressing the possibility that the central bank might force Greece’s hand before European political leaders had been able to formulate their own response, the French finance minister, Michel Sapin, on Monday told Europe 1 radio that the European Central Bank “must not cut” its support for Greek banks.

考慮到央行可能會(huì)在歐洲政治領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人能做出自己的響應(yīng)之前向希臘施加壓力的可能性，法國(guó)財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)米歇爾·薩潘(Michel Sapin)周一對(duì)歐洲第一電臺(tái)表示，歐洲央行“不能切斷”對(duì)希臘銀行的支持。

Oil prices fell as much as 3.2 percent early Monday, as traders placed bets that recent events could lead to slower global economic activity and weaker demand. Brent crude, a benchmark, fell below $60 a barrel for the first time since mid-April.

由于交易者打賭最近的事態(tài)可能會(huì)讓全球經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)放慢、導(dǎo)致對(duì)石油的需求疲軟，油價(jià)在周一早些時(shí)候下跌了3.2%。作為基準(zhǔn)的布倫特原油一度跌破每桶60美元，這是自今年4月中旬以來(lái)的第一次。

Bond prices rallied in Australia, and gold and silver prices climbed, as investors sought safety in response to uncertainty about whether Greece would stop using the euro and about whether mainland China’s economy would slow after investors there lost $2.7 trillion in the stock market over the past three weeks.

澳大利亞市場(chǎng)的債券價(jià)格上漲，而且，由于對(duì)希臘是否會(huì)停止使用歐元的不確定性，以及中國(guó)股市在過(guò)去3周失去2.7萬(wàn)億美元市值后，對(duì)中國(guó)大陸的經(jīng)濟(jì)是否會(huì)放緩的不確定性，投資者尋找安全投資，使黃金和白銀的價(jià)格攀升。

The Nikkei 225-share index in Japan closed 2.1 percent lower, and the Kospi in South Korea dropped 2.5 percent. The stock market in Australia, where mining companies are heavily dependent on Chinese demand, finished down 1.1 percent.

日本的日經(jīng)225股指數(shù)以2.1%的降幅收盤，韓國(guó)綜合指數(shù)也下降了2.5%。在澳大利亞，礦業(yè)公司嚴(yán)重依賴中國(guó)的需求，該國(guó)的股市以下跌1.1%收盤。

Kymberly Martin, a currency strategist at the Bank of New Zealand, said that the Greek vote and China’s stock market decline both tended to have similar effects on currencies and stock markets.

新西蘭銀行的貨幣策略師金伯利·馬丁(Kymberly Martin)表示，希臘公投和中國(guó)股市的下跌對(duì)貨幣和股票市場(chǎng)往往有類似的效果。

“It’s very difficult to disentangle what proportion is the eurozone and what proportion is China,” she said. “Probably both factors are affecting the market in the same direction.”

“很難區(qū)分開(kāi)影響中歐元區(qū)的比例與中國(guó)的比例各為多少，”她說(shuō)。“兩種因素影響市場(chǎng)的方向大致相同。”

But other economists saw the events in Greece as more influential.

但也有經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為，希臘發(fā)生的情況有更強(qiáng)的影響力。

“It’s more Greece, but those China concerns are also there,” said Richard Grace, a currency and fixed-income strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

澳大利亞聯(lián)邦銀行的貨幣和固定收益策略師理查德·格雷斯(Richard Grace)表示，“更多的影響來(lái)自希臘，但也有對(duì)中國(guó)的擔(dān)心。”

He also questioned whether the sharp gains for Australian bonds would endure, saying that those bonds often jump in value in response to overseas events that prompt investors to seek safety. But the jumps are often transitory, he noted, and recede after European and American markets begin trading.

他也對(duì)澳大利亞債券的大幅增長(zhǎng)是否能持續(xù)表示懷疑，他說(shuō)這些債券的價(jià)格經(jīng)常在海外事件的影響下上漲，促使投資者尋求安全投資。但他指出，債券價(jià)格跳躍往往是短暫的，在歐洲和美國(guó)市場(chǎng)開(kāi)始交易后會(huì)回落。

E. William Stone, the executive vice president and chief investment strategist at the PNC Asset Management Group in Philadelphia, said that most investors had been expecting a yes vote on the Greek referendum. Instead, with more than 90 percent of the vote tallied, more than 60 percent of the voters had chosen no.

美國(guó)費(fèi)城的PNC資產(chǎn)管理集團(tuán)執(zhí)行副總裁兼首席投資策略師E·威廉·斯通(E. William Stone)表示，大多數(shù)投資者曾預(yù)期贊成票會(huì)在希臘公投中獲勝。與此相反，在已經(jīng)統(tǒng)計(jì)完畢的90%以上的選票中，超過(guò)60%的選民投了反對(duì)票。

“I won’t be surprised if we get some larger sell-offs” as the day progresses, he said.

斯通說(shuō)，隨著交易日的推移，“如果出現(xiàn)一些更大的拋售，我不會(huì)感到驚訝。”

Unlike Ms. Martin, he said that Greece would be the dominant influence on markets, particularly in Europe and the United States. While the Shanghai stock market has lost more than a quarter of its value since June 12, it is still up nearly 80 percent from a year ago.

與馬丁女士不同，他說(shuō)，希臘將對(duì)市場(chǎng)有主要影響，尤其是在歐洲和美國(guó)。雖然上海股市自6月12日以來(lái)，已經(jīng)失去了逾25%的市值，但仍比一年前高出近80%。

“It almost seems like the Chinese authorities are overreacting,” he said.

“中國(guó)政府看來(lái)似乎有點(diǎn)反應(yīng)過(guò)度，”他說(shuō)。

On Monday, China’s state-run news media issued a volley of commentaries declaring faith in the government’s ability to restore confidence to the stock market.

周一，中國(guó)官方新聞媒體連篇累牘地發(fā)表評(píng)論，宣布對(duì)政府恢復(fù)股票市場(chǎng)信心的能力毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)。

“After the storm, comes the rainbow,” said a commentary in People’s Daily. Investors were mistaken to worry about the level of debt behind the rise in stock prices, it said.

《人民日?qǐng)?bào)》的一篇評(píng)論說(shuō)，“風(fēng)雨之后見(jiàn)彩虹。”評(píng)論說(shuō)，投資者對(duì)股價(jià)上漲的背后是過(guò)高杠桿率的擔(dān)心是不對(duì)的。

“What the broad numbers of investors need at this instant is confidence, not panic,” it said.

評(píng)論說(shuō)，“對(duì)于廣大投資者而言，此時(shí)需要的是信心而不是恐慌。”

In Hong Kong, where shares closed 3.2 percent lower, investors appeared to be paying considerably more attention to China than Greece.

香港股市以3.2%的降幅收盤，那里的投資者對(duì)中國(guó)的關(guān)注似乎比對(duì)希臘的關(guān)注大得多。