特朗普想讓美國(guó)奉行孤立主義

The damage a President Trump could do to theAmerican republic is thankfully limited. A presidentis not a king. There are laws and a court to enforcethem. There is Congress to block him. If a presidentbreaks the law, he can be impeached. America maybecome a more intolerant and chaotic place underDonald Trump, but thanks to its institutions therepublic will survive.

謝天謝地，唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)當(dāng)選為總統(tǒng)對(duì)美利堅(jiān)共和國(guó)的破壞將是有限的?？偨y(tǒng)不是國(guó)王。他們會(huì)受到法律和法庭的限制，而且還有國(guó)會(huì)的掣肘。如果總統(tǒng)違法，他可能受到彈劾。在特朗普的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下，美國(guó)可能成為一個(gè)更加偏狹和混亂之地，但得益于其制度，美利堅(jiān)共和國(guó)將會(huì)存活下來(lái)。

The world is a different matter. The president enjoys his or her greatest power in foreign policy.His power to use force is well known. As important, though, is what he can choose not to do. Hecan unilaterally refuse to defend an ally. He can choose to strike a bargain with Russiainstead of deterring it. He can pull out of a trade deal. There are fewer checks and balances.Damage done in one year may never be undone.

全世界的情況則有所不同。美國(guó)總統(tǒng)在外交政策上的權(quán)力最大。他動(dòng)用武力的權(quán)力眾所周知。然而，同樣重要的是，他可以選擇不做什么。他可以單方面拒絕捍衛(wèi)盟友。他可以選擇與俄羅斯達(dá)成協(xié)議而非威懾。他可以退出貿(mào)易協(xié)定。美國(guó)帶來(lái)的制衡作用將會(huì)減弱。一年的破壞就可能永遠(yuǎn)難以消除。

A Trump administration would pose the greatest shock to international peace and stabilitysince the 1930s. This is not because Mr Trump would invade other countries but because hewould unilaterally liquidate the liberal international order that presidents have built anddefended since Franklin Delano Roosevelt. If the word “isolationist” has any meaning, hequalifies as one.

特朗普政府對(duì)國(guó)際和平和穩(wěn)定的沖擊將會(huì)是上世紀(jì)30年代以來(lái)最大的。這不是因?yàn)樘乩势諏?huì)入侵其他國(guó)家，而是因?yàn)樗麑?huì)單方面地瓦解自富蘭克林•德拉諾•羅斯福(Franklin Delano Roosevelt)起美國(guó)歷任總統(tǒng)創(chuàng)建和捍衛(wèi)的國(guó)際自由秩序。如果“孤立主義者”這個(gè)單詞有意義的話(huà)，他就是一個(gè)孤立主義者。

Mr Trump has a coherent and consistent worldview that dates back almost 30 years when hespent $95,000 on a full-page advertisement in the New York Times to publish an open letter tothe American people on US foreign policy. It was this worldview that he described to theWashington Post editorial board on Monday. It appears in virtually every interview andspeech he has given about world affairs since the 1980s.

特朗普擁有一套連貫一致的世界觀(guān)，其痕跡可以追溯至近30年前，當(dāng)時(shí)他拿出9.5萬(wàn)美元在《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》(NewYork Times)刊登了一整版廣告，向美國(guó)民眾發(fā)表關(guān)于美國(guó)外交政策的公開(kāi)信。他在本周一向《華盛頓郵報(bào)》(Washington Post)的編委描述了這種世界觀(guān)。實(shí)際上自上世紀(jì)80年代以來(lái)，他在幾乎每場(chǎng)關(guān)于世界事務(wù)的采訪(fǎng)和演講中都闡述了這種世界觀(guān)。

Simply put, Mr Trump thinks America’s allies and partners are ripping it off and he wants out ofAmerica’s leadership role in the international order. Over and over again, Mr Trump hasquestioned why the US defends Japan, South Korea, Germany and other nations without beingpaid for it. Just this week, he promised to significantly diminish US involvement in Nato andwhen asked if America “gained anything” from having bases in east Asia he replied “personally Idon’t think so”. This is not about a more equitable share of the burden, which many have calledfor. Mr Trump believes that the US gains little from having allies unless it is paid handsomelypaid by them.

簡(jiǎn)言之，特朗普認(rèn)為美國(guó)的盟友和合作伙伴在敲美國(guó)的“竹杠”，他希望美國(guó)退出國(guó)際秩序中的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)角色。特朗普一次次地質(zhì)問(wèn)，為何美國(guó)要不計(jì)報(bào)酬地捍衛(wèi)日本、韓國(guó)、德國(guó)以及其他國(guó)家?就在本周，他承諾大幅削減美國(guó)在北約的參與，而且在被問(wèn)及美國(guó)是否從東亞的基地“獲得什么”的時(shí)候，他回答稱(chēng)“我個(gè)人認(rèn)為沒(méi)有”。這不是像許多人呼吁的那樣更加公平地分擔(dān)責(zé)任。特朗普相信，美國(guó)幾乎沒(méi)有從結(jié)盟中受益，除非盟友們支付豐厚報(bào)酬。

He also opposes every trade deal America has signed over the past 30 years. He wants to usetariffs and other protectionist measures to bludgeon other countries into accepting lopsidedagreements that disproportionately benefit the US. He has suggested charging other countriesfor use of the sea lanes. Under his presidency, the open global economy would slam shut.

他還反對(duì)美國(guó)在過(guò)去30年簽署的所有貿(mào)易協(xié)定。他希望動(dòng)用關(guān)稅和其他保護(hù)主義措施來(lái)強(qiáng)迫其他國(guó)家接受讓美國(guó)從中極大受益的不對(duì)稱(chēng)協(xié)議。他提議對(duì)其他使用航路的國(guó)家收取費(fèi)用。如果他擔(dān)任美國(guó)總統(tǒng)，開(kāi)放的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)將砰然關(guān)閉。

As he shuns America’s allies, Mr Trump would seek to strike deals with Vladimir Putin,president of Russia, and other authoritarian strong men. Mr Trump has received Mr Putin’sendorsement and has called for much better relations with Russia.

在避開(kāi)美國(guó)盟友的同時(shí)，特朗普會(huì)尋求和俄羅斯總統(tǒng)弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)等專(zhuān)制的政治強(qiáng)人領(lǐng)袖達(dá)成協(xié)議。特朗普已經(jīng)得到了普京的支持，并呼吁大力改善美俄關(guān)系。

Meanwhile, to deal with threats to the American homeland, Mr Trump has promised his ownChechnya-style scorched-earth policy of targeting civilians and using torture.

同時(shí)，為了應(yīng)對(duì)美國(guó)國(guó)土的威脅，特朗普承諾實(shí)施他的車(chē)臣式焦土政策——把平民列為打擊目標(biāo)，并使用酷刑。

Some think that Mr Trump will moderate these positions if he is elected, but it is unlikely thata 70-year old who has held these views for decades and probably views himself as a prophetwill abandon them at exactly the moment he feels vindicated and empowered.

有些人認(rèn)為，當(dāng)選后特朗普的這些立場(chǎng)會(huì)有所緩和，但一個(gè)數(shù)十年來(lái)都抱著這些想法，并且很可能把自己看成先知的70歲的人，不太可能在他感到自己被證明有理而且掌握權(quán)力的那一刻放棄這些想法。

The day after his election, allies in Europe and Asia will rightly worry if their securityrelationship with the US remains intact. Russia and China will have an unprecedentedopportunity to achieve in a single presidential term what they thought would take decades,namely the destruction of the US-led alliance system.

在他當(dāng)選之后，美國(guó)在歐洲和亞洲的盟友完全有理由擔(dān)憂(yōu)它們與美國(guó)的安全合作關(guān)系是否還能保持原樣。俄羅斯和中國(guó)將獲得一個(gè)史無(wú)前例的機(jī)會(huì)在一屆總統(tǒng)任期內(nèi)完成它們此前認(rèn)為需要花數(shù)十年才能實(shí)現(xiàn)的目標(biāo)——即摧毀美國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的同盟體系。

These are the true stakes of the 2016 election. The campaign will be unlike any other as thefundamental pillars of post-second world war American foreign policy are put up for debate.Hillary Clinton, the probable Democrat nominee, might be synonymous with theestablishment, but her destiny is clear. It is to explain why an open and liberal internationalorder benefits ordinary Americans. It is to show how the closing of the global economy, the endof alliances and dawning of an authoritarian age poses as great a threat to American interestsnow as it did in the late 1940s when the architecture of US leadership was created.

這是2016年的美國(guó)大選真正關(guān)系重大的地方。這場(chǎng)大選不同于其他任何一場(chǎng)，因?yàn)槊绹?guó)二戰(zhàn)后外交政策的核心成為了辯論的焦點(diǎn)。很可能會(huì)成為民主黨總統(tǒng)候選人的希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)或許是建制派的代名詞，但她的使命很清楚。那就是解釋為何自由開(kāi)放的國(guó)際秩序讓普通美國(guó)人受益，向他們展示國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)的封閉、同盟的瓦解，以及威權(quán)時(shí)代的到來(lái)對(duì)美國(guó)利益威脅之大將不亞于上世紀(jì)40年代末由美國(guó)扮演領(lǐng)導(dǎo)角色的架構(gòu)剛建立的時(shí)候。

The international order can survive many things — terrorist attacks, Russian aggression,Chinese revisionism and an international financial crisis — but the collapse of Americanleadership may prove a disaster too far.

國(guó)際秩序能夠經(jīng)受住許多東西的侵襲——恐怖主義襲擊、俄羅斯的侵略、中國(guó)的修正主義和一場(chǎng)國(guó)際金融危機(jī)——但美國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)地位的崩塌很可能會(huì)被證明是一場(chǎng)破壞性過(guò)大的災(zāi)難。