日俄峰會(huì)幕后 日擔(dān)心俄更加倒向中國(guó)

Japanese and Russian officials have been working foralmost three years to organise a meaningful meetingbetween their leaders. But with the stakes high forboth as Vladimir Putin prepares to host Shinzo Abein the Black Sea resort of Sochi on Friday, Moscow isalready lowering expectations of progress on theissue that matters to Tokyo the most.

近三年來(lái)，日本和俄羅斯官員一直在為組織一次意義重大的兩國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人峰會(huì)而努力。但由于對(duì)雙方而言事關(guān)重大，所以當(dāng)弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)準(zhǔn)備周五在黑海度假勝地索契(Sochi)會(huì)見(jiàn)安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)之際，莫斯科方面已開(kāi)始降低在對(duì)東京方面最重要的問(wèn)題上取得進(jìn)展的預(yù)期。

At the top of the agenda is a long-running dispute over the group of islands Russia calls theKuriles and Japan the Northern Territories. But “it is hardly possible to expect imminent andserious progress” on resolving it, Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for the Russian president, warned.

會(huì)談議程中的最重要議題是兩國(guó)長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)對(duì)一系列島嶼的爭(zhēng)端——俄羅斯稱(chēng)之為庫(kù)頁(yè)島(Kuriles)，日本稱(chēng)之為北方領(lǐng)土(Northern Territories)。但是，“期望在解決該問(wèn)題上很快取得重大進(jìn)展幾乎是不可能的，”普京發(fā)言人德米特里•巴斯科夫(Dmitry Peskov)警告稱(chēng)。

Dmitry Trenin, head of the Carnegie Moscow Center， sees Japan as a casualty of Russia’s pivotto China, which he says has put Russia on a trajectory to ever-greater dependency on Beijingwhile failing to give other Asian powers enough attention.

卡內(nèi)基莫斯科中心(Carnegie Moscow Center)主任德米特里•特列寧(Dmitri Trenin)認(rèn)為，日本是俄羅斯倒向中國(guó)政策的受害者。他表示，這一政策得俄羅斯走上了一條對(duì)北京方面日益依賴(lài)的道路，對(duì)亞洲其他大國(guó)未能給予足夠重視。

The Japanese prime minister is all too aware of that. Mr Abe is currently on a whistle-stop tourof Europe, visiting Italy, France, Germany and the UK, before he chairs the G7 meeting in Ise-Shima at the end of the month.

日本首相對(duì)此非常清醒。安倍晉三目前正在進(jìn)行走馬觀花式的歐洲之行，訪問(wèn)意大利、法國(guó)、德國(guó)和英國(guó)。然后，他將于本月底在伊勢(shì)志摩(Ise-Shima)主持七國(guó)集團(tuán)(G7)會(huì)議。

But his meeting with Mr Putin is diplomatically more important. Mr Abe’s eagerness to meet MrPutin is founded in the geopolitical threat to Japan from China, say people close to the primeminister. His fear is that an isolated Russia will draw ever closer to Beijing. Given otherterritorial disputes, such as China’s claim to what Japan calls the Senkaku islands and Chinathe Diaoyu, Japan can ill-afford to have its two giant neighbours unite against it.

但是，他與普京會(huì)面在外交方面具有更重要的意義。據(jù)接近這位首相的人士表示，安倍晉三急于跟普京會(huì)面，原因在于中國(guó)在地緣政治方面對(duì)日本構(gòu)成的壓力。他擔(dān)心，被孤立的俄羅斯將向中國(guó)靠得更近。鑒于其他領(lǐng)土爭(zhēng)端，比如中國(guó)對(duì)于日本稱(chēng)之為尖閣諸島(Senkaku Islands)、中國(guó)稱(chēng)之為“釣魚(yú)島及其附屬島嶼(Diaoyu)”的系列島嶼的主權(quán)要求，日本無(wú)法承受兩大鄰國(guó)共同反對(duì)自己的后果。

Mr Abe has been eager for a proper Japan-Russia summit rather than brief chats on thesidelines of international meetings, says one official close to him. Braving the displeasure ofthe US amid tensions over Russia’s annexation of Crimea, Mr Abe wants the Russian leader tovisit Tokyo within the year.

一名接近安倍晉三的官員說(shuō)，他一直非常希望召開(kāi)一次適當(dāng)?shù)娜斩矸鍟?huì)，而不是兩國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人在國(guó)際會(huì)議的間隙進(jìn)行簡(jiǎn)短交談。安倍晉三大膽面對(duì)美國(guó)對(duì)俄羅斯吞并克里米亞(Crimea)的不滿，希望普京能在今年年底訪問(wèn)東京。

The issue that looms over Russo-Japanese relations is four disputed islands in the Kurile chain,seized by the Soviet Union in the final days of the second world war. The dispute means thetwo countries never signed a peace treaty.

二戰(zhàn)最后時(shí)期被蘇聯(lián)占領(lǐng)的庫(kù)頁(yè)群島中的四個(gè)爭(zhēng)議島嶼，是影響俄日關(guān)系的問(wèn)題所在。該爭(zhēng)議導(dǎo)致兩國(guó)之間從未簽署一項(xiàng)和平條約。

Many Russian officials and analysts say that seeking a counterbalance to Moscow’s ever-closeralliance with China would be beneficial for Russia as well. “A country that refused to be ajunior partner of the US can’t find it in its interest to become a tributary of a Chinese greatpower,” says Mr Trenin. “Japan and other countries with whom relations are stalling are unusedreserves of Russian foreign policy.”

許多俄羅斯官員和分析人士表示，在俄羅斯與中國(guó)之間的聯(lián)盟關(guān)系日益緊密之際，尋找一種平衡，對(duì)俄羅斯本身也將是有益的。“一個(gè)拒絕成為美國(guó)小伙伴的國(guó)家會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)，成為強(qiáng)大中國(guó)的附屬?lài)?guó)是不符合自身利益的，”特列寧說(shuō)。“俄羅斯與日本和其他國(guó)家的關(guān)系停滯不前，而這些國(guó)家正是俄羅斯在外交政策方面未曾使用的儲(chǔ)備。”

But there are few economic or political opportunities to develop this reserve with Tokyo.Russian officials say Japan is a partner of choice for the transfer of high technology to Russia,and Moscow also looks to its eastern neighbour as a potential market for Russian agriculturaland fisheries products.

但是，俄羅斯并沒(méi)有多少經(jīng)濟(jì)或政治機(jī)會(huì)和日本一同開(kāi)發(fā)這些儲(chǔ)備。俄羅斯官員說(shuō)，日本是對(duì)俄轉(zhuǎn)讓高技術(shù)的首選伙伴;俄羅斯也把這個(gè)東方鄰國(guó)看成本國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)、漁業(yè)產(chǎn)品的一個(gè)潛在市場(chǎng)。

But in an era of low prices for the natural resources that form the lion’s share of Russia’sexports, such broader exchanges are slow to get off the ground.

但在構(gòu)成俄羅斯出口主體的自然資源價(jià)格低迷的時(shí)代，這些經(jīng)貿(mào)交流進(jìn)展得很緩慢。