英國財(cái)政部 脫歐將導(dǎo)致逾50萬崗位流失

Britain faces the loss of more than half a million jobsif it votes to leave the EU, according to a bleakanalysis of the short-term economic shock of aBrexit vote to be published on Monday by theTreasury.

英國財(cái)政部(Treasury)一份將在周一發(fā)表的對(duì)英國脫歐短期經(jīng)濟(jì)沖擊的悲觀分析報(bào)告顯示，如果英國投票脫離歐盟(EU)，它將面臨逾50萬工作崗位的流失。

Ahead of the release of the report, Sajid Javid, thebusiness secretary, said there would be a“immediate and profound economic shock” and warned the economy would contract by 3.6per cent after two years and house prices would be 10 per cent lower than they would havebeen otherwise.

英國商業(yè)大臣薩吉德•賈偉德(Sajid Javid)在報(bào)告發(fā)布前表示，英國脫歐會(huì)產(chǎn)生“立即而深遠(yuǎn)的經(jīng)濟(jì)沖擊”。他還警告稱，兩年后英國經(jīng)濟(jì)或?qū)⑽s3.6%，房價(jià)或?qū)⒈仍究赡芴幵诘乃降?0%。

But speaking on the BBC Today programme, Mr Javid said “most worryingly of all [the Treasurypredicts] a loss of over 500,000 jobs”.

不過，在英國廣播公司(BBC)的《今日》(Today)節(jié)目上，賈偉德表示“(財(cái)政部的預(yù)測中)最令人擔(dān)心的是逾50萬個(gè)工作崗位的流失”。

David Cameron and George Osborne hope the Treasury warning of an immediate hit to jobs,interest rates and house prices will be the clinching argument for undecided voters as the EUreferendum campaign enters its final month.

戴維•卡梅倫(David Cameron)和喬治•奧斯本(George Osborne)希望，在英國脫歐公投進(jìn)入最后一個(gè)月之際，財(cái)政部有關(guān)脫歐對(duì)工作崗位、利率和房價(jià)即刻造成的打擊的警告，會(huì)成為說服仍懸而未決的選民的決定性理由。

The Treasury analysis suggests that growth could be 3.6 per cent lower after two years ifBritain votes to leave the EU, compared with the forecast for continued growth after a vote toremain. This would produce a recession similar to that of the early 1990s but not as bad as theone that followed the 2008 crash.

財(cái)政部的這一分析暗示，如果英國投票脫離歐盟，兩年后其增長率或?yàn)橄碌?.6%。相比之下，如果投票結(jié)果是留在歐盟，預(yù)計(jì)英國經(jīng)濟(jì)會(huì)繼續(xù)增長。這一跌幅導(dǎo)致的衰退與上世紀(jì)90年代初類似，不過卻沒有2008年危機(jī)后的衰退那么糟。

Leave campaigners will point to the large margin of error implicit in the Treasury’s economicmodel, which claims that the economy could be 6 per cent lower than the current forecastunder a worst-case scenario.

英國脫歐的支持者則提到，財(cái)政部的經(jīng)濟(jì)模型隱含著巨大的誤差幅度，該模型聲稱最壞情況下英國經(jīng)濟(jì)會(huì)比目前的預(yù)測低6%。

Iain Duncan Smith said: “The Treasury has consistently got its predictions wrong in the past.This Treasury document is not an honest assessment but a deeply biased view of the futureand it should not be believed by anyone.”

伊恩•鄧肯•史密斯(Iain Duncan Smith)表示：“過去財(cái)政部在其預(yù)測上一貫出錯(cuò)。這份財(cái)政部文件并不是一份誠實(shí)的評(píng)估，而是一種對(duì)未來有極大偏見的看法，任何人都不該相信它。”

The Treasury “short-term shock” paper is its second and final piece of analysis on Brexit beforethe June 23 EU referendum and is seen by Mr Osborne’s allies as likely to have the most impacton voters.

這份財(cái)政部的“短期沖擊”文件是6月23日英國脫歐公投以前，財(cái)政部對(duì)脫歐的第二份分析文件，也是最后一份。奧斯本的盟友認(rèn)為，它可能會(huì)對(duì)選民產(chǎn)生最大影響。