委內(nèi)瑞拉還能撐多久？

After years of decline, the situation in Venezuela is becoming desperate. Could the latest fall in the oil prices provide the tipping point that finally brings to an end the unhappy period of Marxist rule begun by Hugo Chavez in 1999?

經(jīng)歷多年衰落后，委內(nèi)瑞拉的形勢正變得令人絕望。最新一輪石油價格下跌會成為轉(zhuǎn)折點、最終結(jié)束烏戈•查韋斯(Hugo Chávez) 1999年開啟的馬克思主義統(tǒng)治不幸時期嗎?

In the last two months the oil price has fallen by 20 per cent, ending the hopes of producers around the world that the downward slide of the last two years is over and that prices will soon return to a level that they used to regard as “normal”. For many, the latest fall will be the last straw. Numerous companies have maintained their dividend payments through borrowing. With prices falling again that looks unsustainable. Many, including the state companies, also face hard investment decisions on projects that need higher prices to be viable. With capex requirements outstripping revenue and little prospect of raising more money through rights issues more projects will be postponed or abandoned.

過去兩個月，油價下跌了20%，澆滅了世界各地生產(chǎn)者的希望——他們原本期待過去兩年的下跌勢頭已經(jīng)結(jié)束，油價很快就會回歸他們過去視為“正常”的水平。對許多生產(chǎn)商而言，最新一輪油價下跌將成為壓垮他們的最后一根稻草。多家石油公司近期通過借款維持股息。隨著油價再度下跌，這種做法看起來難以為繼。在一些需要較高油價支撐才可行的項目上，很多石油公司(包括國有企業(yè))還面臨艱難的投資決策。由于資本支出需求超過營收、且通過配售新股籌得更多資金的前景渺茫，更多項目將被推遲或放棄。

But perhaps the harshest effects of the fall in prices will be felt in countries that are utterly dependent on oil revenue. There the result will be economic decline, rising unemployment and potentially serious social unrest as expectations in terms of living standards and welfare payments are forced down. That is true across much of Opec but nowhere are the problems greater than in Venezuela.

但受油價下跌影響最嚴重的或許就是那些完全依賴石油收入的國家。在這些國家，油價下跌造成的結(jié)果是經(jīng)濟衰退、失業(yè)率上升，而且由于民眾對生活標準、福利支出的期望值被迫降低，還有可能造成嚴重的社會動蕩。歐佩克(OPEC)大多數(shù)國家都是如此，但沒有哪個國家比委內(nèi)瑞拉面臨的問題更嚴重。

For years, the situation in the country has been deteriorating. Political decisions have undermined the independence and capability of the state-owned PDVSA, which was once one of the world’s great energy companies. Oil provides 95 per cent of export revenue and Venezuela has never succeeded in diversifying the economy. Falling prices have compounded the problem of falling production. The result is a deep recession with gross domestic product predicted to fall by 10 per cent this year. Unemployment is officially 20 per cent, and probably much more in reality. Inflation is 700 per cent and rising, according to the International Monetary Fund. There are desperate shortages of imports, including of basic foods and medicine.

多年來，委內(nèi)瑞拉的形勢一直在惡化。各種政治決定削弱了國有的委內(nèi)瑞拉國家石油公司(PDVSA)——曾經(jīng)是不錯的能源公司之一——的獨立性及經(jīng)營能力。石油提供了該國95%的出口收入，而委內(nèi)瑞拉在實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟多樣化方面從未取得成功。不斷下降的油價加劇了產(chǎn)量下滑問題。結(jié)果是經(jīng)濟深度衰退，今年國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)預(yù)計將收縮10%。官方統(tǒng)計的失業(yè)率為20%，但實際可能要高得多。國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，委內(nèi)瑞拉的通脹率達到了700%，而且還在上升。進口商品極度短缺，包括基本食品和藥品。

In recent months the situation has worsened – with the latest price decline hitting oil revenue yet again. Volumes are also down – to 2.1m barrels a day in June with the prospect of a further fall by the end of the year to perhaps as little as 1.7mbd. That would represent a 30-year low. The fall is the result of lack of investment, the chronic shortage of electricity that affects the whole of Venezuela and, most recently, the decision of some of the major international service companies such as Schlumberger and Halliburton to reduce activity in the face of accumulating unpaid debts running into billions of dollars.

最近幾個月，委內(nèi)瑞拉的形勢進一步惡化——最新一輪油價下跌再次打擊了石油收入。石油產(chǎn)量也在下滑——6月的產(chǎn)量為210萬桶/天，預(yù)計到今年底可能進一步下滑至僅170萬桶/天。那將是30年來的最低水平。導(dǎo)致石油產(chǎn)量下降的原因包括投資不足、影響整個委內(nèi)瑞拉的長期電力短缺，以及最近一些大型國際石油服務(wù)企業(yè)——如斯倫貝謝(Schlumberger)和哈利伯頓(Halliburton)——在面臨累計高達數(shù)十億美元的未償債務(wù)之際決定削減業(yè)務(wù)。

This should be a recipe for the long-predicted change of government. President Nicolas Maduro , who succeeded Hugo Chavez in 2013, is clearly well dug in, reinforced by oppressive legislation and corruption and by residual support among sections of Venezuelan society, including some of the military. The defence minister, General Vladimir Padrino López, was recently given powers that come close to martial law but it is not clear how he can turn the economy around. In the end something must give and the point at which the regime will collapse under the weight of economic failure now feels closer than ever.

這應(yīng)當成為人們預(yù)計已久的政府更迭的契機。2013年接替查韋斯出任總統(tǒng)的尼古拉斯•馬杜羅(Nicolas Maduro)顯然想要堅守權(quán)力寶座，高壓立法、腐敗以及委內(nèi)瑞拉社會某些部分(包括軍方的一些勢力)殘存的支持強化了他的地位。委內(nèi)瑞拉國防部長弗拉基米爾•帕德里諾•洛佩斯(Vladimir Padrino López)將軍最近被授予近乎軍管的大權(quán)，但看不出他有什么辦法扭轉(zhuǎn)經(jīng)濟局面。最終，總會出現(xiàn)變化，在經(jīng)濟失敗的重壓下，委內(nèi)瑞拉政權(quán)似乎比以往任何時候都更加接近崩潰。

At current oil prices, a full-scale default cannot be far away. Until there is a new government both lenders and investors will turn away, adding to the economic problems. The crucial question is what the Chinese will do. They have lent Venezuela about $125bn over the last 15 years but Beijing may well decide enough is enough and that it does not need to lend more to get the access to oil that it wants. At current prices the repayments in kind absorb around 800,000 b/d of Venezuelan crude exports.

在當前油價下，委內(nèi)瑞拉距離全面違約不可能很遠。除非產(chǎn)生新的政府，否則貸款機構(gòu)和投資者將對該國敬而遠之，進一步加劇經(jīng)濟困難。關(guān)鍵問題在于中國會怎樣做。過去15年間，中國已經(jīng)貸給委內(nèi)瑞拉約1250億美元，但北京方面很可能決定是時候止損了，再說中國不再需要為獲得想要的石油而發(fā)放更多貸款。按當前油價計算，委內(nèi)瑞拉原油出口中，每天約80萬桶要用于償還欠中國的債務(wù)。

The service companies could withdraw altogether or reduce their activity to an absolute minimum and that, in turn, could lead to a collapse in oil output. The Venezuelan military is trying to put together its own oil services company but the effort is laughable.

石油服務(wù)公司可能完全撤出委內(nèi)瑞拉，或是將業(yè)務(wù)削減至絕對最低限度，這進而可能導(dǎo)致石油產(chǎn)量暴跌。委內(nèi)瑞拉軍方試圖拼湊自己的石油服務(wù)公司，但他們的努力成為了笑柄。

Behind the immediate flow of events a reassessment of Venezuela’s real potential is taking place. The country claims to have the world’s largest oil reserves – some 298bn barrels. This is not only a suspiciously precise number. It is also grossly inflated. Only a decade ago Venezuelan reserves were just 80bn barrels. The increase is the product of politics and the period of high prices that lasted until 2014. Genuine reserves as opposed to resources should be capable of being developed both technically and commercially. As the oil price sinks towards $40, the amount that is capable of being developed commercially will inevitably fall . Venezuela isn’t the only country facing the challenge but it is probably the most vulnerable to a very sharp downward revision.

在這些當前的事件流背后，各方正在重新評估委內(nèi)瑞拉的真實潛力。委內(nèi)瑞拉宣稱擁有世界最大規(guī)模的石油儲量——約2980億桶。這一數(shù)字不僅精確得令人懷疑，還存在嚴重夸大。就在10年前，委內(nèi)瑞拉的石油儲量還只有800億桶。如此大幅的提升是政治以及持續(xù)至2014年的高價周期的產(chǎn)物。真實的石油儲量(而非資源)應(yīng)該在技術(shù)上和商業(yè)上能夠被開發(fā)。隨著油價跌向40美元，商業(yè)上能夠被開發(fā)的石油儲量將不可避免地下降。委內(nèi)瑞拉并非唯一面臨這種挑戰(zhàn)的國家，但它很可能是最易受儲量大幅下調(diào)沖擊的國家。

Is political change possible? I have always thought so. Venezuela is an open society with great skills and strengths, even if many of the people now with the greatest skills are expatriates. Even if oil volumes are downgraded, the country has a strong untapped base of natural resources and easy access to the markets of North America. Chavez and his successors have damaged Venezuela but they have not completely destroyed the potential of a country that should be one of the most successful in Latin America.

政治變化可能嗎?我一直認為答案是肯定的。委內(nèi)瑞拉是一個開放的社會，擁有很多人才和優(yōu)勢——即使很多最優(yōu)秀人才現(xiàn)在都外流了。即使石油儲量遭到下調(diào)，委內(nèi)瑞拉仍擁有大量尚未開發(fā)的自然資源和進入北美市場的便利條件。查韋斯及其繼任者對委內(nèi)瑞拉造成了破壞，但是他們并沒有完全摧毀這個本應(yīng)是拉美最成功國家之一的潛力。

If ever a nation needs and deserves a revolution it is Venezuela.

古往今來，如果有哪個國家需要而且應(yīng)該爆發(fā)一場革命的話，那就是當下的委內(nèi)瑞拉。