令人不安的美國大選

The wonderful thing about elections is they end with a decision. The divisions remain. But for the time being the question of who governs is settled. This year’s US presidential election is on course to be an exception. Even if Hillary Clinton wins the US electoral college by a big margin, hers would be the most grudging landslide in history.

選舉的好處在于最終會分出勝負。分歧仍然存在。但就目前而言，由誰執(zhí)政的問題已經(jīng)解決。今年的美國總統(tǒng)大選即將成為一個例外。即便希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)在選舉人團投票中以巨大優(yōu)勢勝出，這也將是歷史上最勉強的壓倒性多數(shù)。

A large chunk of Americans will be receptive to Donald Trump’s claim that the result was rigged. Many of Mrs Clinton’s voters will have backed her only reluctantly on the grounds that anything would be better than Mr Trump. She will enjoy no honeymoon. Speculation about a one-term presidency will begin almost as soon as she takes office.

很多美國人會接受唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的說法：大選結(jié)果受到操縱。支持希拉里的很多選民只會不情愿地支持她，因為什么都比特朗普當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)強。她將不享有“蜜月期”。她幾乎一上任就要面臨她只會當(dāng)一任總統(tǒng)的猜測。

Anyone who doubts this should remember President Barack Obama’s fate. Now on the home stretch to retirement, Mr Obama he has spent the past six years failing to persuade a hostile Congress to act. From annual budgets to early-learning legislation, almost all of his efforts have come to naught. His biggest legacies — healthcare reform and Wall Street regulation — came within his first two years, when he had a Democratic majority. Even now Republicans vow to repeal both laws at the first opportunity. This year, Mr Obama has been unable even to push through emergency help for areas affected by the Zika virus and a modest tightening of gun safety checks following a series of massacres. That is without facing re-election. What chance would Mrs Clinton have?

任何質(zhì)疑這點的人應(yīng)記住美國總統(tǒng)巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)的命運。如今總統(tǒng)任期已近尾聲的奧巴馬，在過去6年一直未能說服對他有敵意的國會采取行動。從年度預(yù)算到早教立法，他的幾乎所有努力都毫無結(jié)果。他最重要的遺產(chǎn)(醫(yī)療改革和華爾街監(jiān)管)都是在他任期的頭兩年實現(xiàn)的，當(dāng)時民主黨占國會多數(shù)席位。盡管這兩件事已訂立為法律，共和黨人仍發(fā)誓一有機會就會廢除這兩部法律。今年，奧巴馬甚至無法促使國會同意對寨卡病毒(Zika)肆虐的地區(qū)實施緊急援助或是在一系列屠殺事件后略微收緊槍支安全管制。這還是在不面臨競選連任壓力的情況下。希拉里能有多大機會呢?

The answer depends on two things. The first is whether Democrats can regain control of Congress in November. There is a good chance they can recapture a thin Senate majority — somewhere around 51 seats to 49. But taking the House of Representatives is a taller order. The chances that Democrats can regain both chambers, a prerequisite for governing in today’s climate, are thus slim.

答案取決于兩點。首先是民主黨能否在今年11月重新獲得國會控制權(quán)。他們有很大的機會重新在參議院贏得微弱多數(shù)——大概是51席(民主黨)對49席的局面。但拿下眾議院就比較困難了。因此，民主黨重新攻下兩院(這是在當(dāng)前情況下執(zhí)政的必備條件)的機會頗為渺茫。

The second is how Republicans interpreted a defeat for Mr Trump. Would they recognise the time had finally come to turn the party into a demographic big tent? If so, Mrs Clinton may be able to find enough middle ground to push through big changes, such as tax reform and an immigration overhaul. Or would the hardline conservatives, led by Ted Cruz, the Texan senator who gave Mr Trump the biggest run for his money in the primaries, see a chance to resume Tea Party-era congressional brinkmanship? In that case, Mrs Clinton’s agenda would stand little chance of daylight.

其次是共和黨人如何解讀特朗普的失敗。他們會不會承認(rèn)將該黨變成一個“人口大帳篷”(big tent)的時刻已終于來臨?如果是這樣的話，希拉里或許能夠找到足夠多的中間地帶推行大規(guī)模改革，例如稅收改革和移民改革。抑或以特德•克魯茲(Ted Cruz，這位德克薩斯州參議員在共和黨初選中是特朗普的勁敵)為首的強硬保守派會不會看到復(fù)活茶黨(Tea Party)時代國會邊緣政策的機會?在這種情況下，希拉里的議程將很難有見光的機會。

My money would be on the latter. To be sure, a big Trump defeat would embolden pragmatic Republicans to warn about their party’s fate in California, which is now in a permanent minority in a state with a non-white majority.

我賭會是后一種情況。當(dāng)然，特朗普的慘敗將鼓勵務(wù)實的共和黨人就該黨在加州的命運發(fā)出警告，在這個非白人占人口大多數(shù)的州，共和黨現(xiàn)在已成為永久性少數(shù)黨派。

California’s present is America’s future. What happened there could prefigure the national Republican party’s decline. But that is the point reformers made after the party’s last defeat in 2012, when they urged it to cease the intolerant rhetoric about gay people and women’s reproductive rights and extend an olive branch to Hispanic Americans. The party’s grass roots was obviously unswayed by the autopsy since it nominated Mr Trump.

加州的現(xiàn)在就是美國的未來。那里出現(xiàn)的情況可能預(yù)示著共和黨在整個美國的衰落。但是，這是改革派在2012年共和黨上一次失敗后提出的觀點——當(dāng)時改革派敦促共和黨停止針對同性戀以及女性生育自由的偏狹言論，并向拉丁裔美國人伸出橄欖枝。共和黨基層顯然對這一剖析并不買賬，因為他們提名了特朗普。

It is hard to see how Republican pragmatists would be able to convince an embittered Trump base, which believed Mrs Clinton had stolen the election, to abandon its strongest beliefs. Mr Cruz, on the other hand, is too clever a politician to ask them to do that. A Trump defeat would sharply improve his chances of winning his party’s crown in 2020. For anyone who is sick of America’s permanent election, I have some discouraging news: it really is permanent. The next cycle has already begun. The opening shot was at Mr Trump’s convention in Cleveland, in which Mr Cruz refused to endorse the Republican nominee. Instead he urged an almost unanimously booing hall to “vote your conscience” in November.

目前很難看出共和黨的務(wù)實主義者會如何說服特朗普憤怒的支持者——他們認(rèn)為希拉里在大選中作弊——放棄其最堅定的信念。另一方面，克魯茲是一位非常聰明的政客，他不會讓他們這么做。特朗普落選會大大增加克魯茲2020年贏得共和黨黨魁的機會。對于所有厭惡美國大選周而復(fù)始的人，我有一些令人沮喪的消息：大選確實是永不停息的。下一輪選戰(zhàn)已經(jīng)開始。打響選戰(zhàn)第一槍的地方是特朗普在克利夫蘭舉行的共和黨代表大會，克魯茲在會上拒絕為這位共和黨提名總統(tǒng)候選人背書。相反，他敦促選民在11月“本著良知投票”，這幾乎引起了在場所有人的一致噓聲。

Mr Cruz’s non-endorsement of Mr Trump was dramatic political theatre. With the hindsight of a Trump defeat, it will start to look prescient — even courageous — just as Mr Cruz intended. Mr Cruz has a head-start on his potentially biggest rival, Paul Ryan, speaker of the House of Representatives, whose timid attempts at legislative compromise with Democrats have caused him to lose his halo among conservatives.

克魯茲不為特朗普背書是一出戲劇性的政治秀。等特朗普敗選后，人們回過頭來看這件事，會認(rèn)為此舉頗具先見之明、甚至頗具勇氣——正如克魯茲所愿。相比最大的潛在對手——眾議院議長保羅•瑞安(Paul Ryan)，克魯茲占得先機。瑞安在與民主黨人的立法妥協(xié)上謹(jǐn)小慎微的嘗試，使得他在保守派中間失去了光環(huán)。

Mr Cruz will also have an edge on Marco Rubio, the Florida senator, whose chances of re-election in November are touch and go.

克魯茲相比佛羅里達州參議員馬爾科•魯比奧(Marco Rubio)也擁有優(yōu)勢，后者能否在11月獲得連任面臨極大不確定性。

Either way, the contest is in motion. Being nice to Mrs Clinton will be held up as a disqualification. Blocking her initiatives will be seen as a credential. By large margins Republican voters say Mrs Clinton is dishonest — as do a minority of Democrats.

不管怎樣，競賽正在進行。善待希拉里的人會被認(rèn)為應(yīng)該出局。阻止她的各項計劃將被視為可堪重任的憑據(jù)。大多數(shù)共和黨選民稱希拉里不誠實——少數(shù)民主黨選民也這樣認(rèn)為。

In time all political trends come to an end. Unfortunately for Mrs Clinton, America’s deep polarisation — and the breakdown of the Republican party — has yet to run its course. Mr Trump’s nomination has probably extended the agony. Since he has adopted unorthodox positions, including support for current levels of entitlement social security and Medicare spending, conservatives will be able to say: “I told you so: we strayed from our principles by nominating an immoral big spender from New York.”

一切政治趨勢都有完結(jié)的時候。對于希拉里來說遺憾的是，美國嚴(yán)重的兩極分化——以及共和黨的分裂——還在繼續(xù)。特朗普獲得提名很可能延長了這一痛苦的過程。因為他采取了非正統(tǒng)的立場(包括支持當(dāng)前的福利社會保障水平和聯(lián)邦醫(yī)療保險(Medicare)支出)，保守派可以說：“我告訴過你們：提名一個不道德的紐約大富豪讓我們偏離了自己的原則。

That will be Mr Cruz’s pitch. It will also be Mrs Clinton’s bane. Whether she wins small or big, she will inherit a poisoned well.

這將是克魯茲的說辭，也將令希拉里頭疼。無論她大勝還是險勝，她都將接手一個兩敗俱傷的爛攤子。