澳大利亞擔(dān)心中國(guó)債務(wù)問題會(huì)殃及本國(guó)

China’s growing debt mountain poses a risk to Australia’s financial stability, a senior politician has warned, just weeks after the continent celebrated a quarter century of growth without a recession.

一位資深政治人士警告稱，中國(guó)不斷增加的巨額債務(wù)對(duì)澳大利亞的金融穩(wěn)定構(gòu)成了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。就在幾周之前，澳大利亞剛剛慶祝了自己長(zhǎng)達(dá)四分之一個(gè)世紀(jì)的不間斷增長(zhǎng)(其間未出現(xiàn)過一次衰退)。

China is Australia’s largest trading partner, accounting for A$150bn of two-way trade in 2015. Beijing is also an important foreign investor in Australia, leaving Canberra potentially among the developed nations most exposed to a Chinese downturn. China’s growing debt in its local government and state-owned enterprise sector were potential vulnerabilities that could end up having an impact on the continent, Scott Morrison, Australian treasurer, said in an interview with the Financial Times.

中國(guó)是澳大利亞的最大貿(mào)易伙伴，2015年澳大利亞對(duì)華進(jìn)出口總額達(dá)到1500億澳元。中國(guó)還是澳大利亞重要的外商投資來源，這讓澳大利亞成為受中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)下行影響最嚴(yán)重的發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家之一。澳大利亞財(cái)長(zhǎng)斯科特•莫里森(Scott Morrison，上圖)在接受英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》采訪時(shí)表示，中國(guó)地方政府和國(guó)有企業(yè)部門不斷增加的債務(wù)是潛在的隱患，最終可能會(huì)對(duì)澳大利亞造成沖擊。

“We are not rose-coloured-glasses optimists about China,” Mr Morrison said. “We have a practical and real appreciation about what some of their vulnerabilities are.”

“我們不是戴著玫瑰色眼鏡看待中國(guó)的樂觀主義者，”莫里森說， “我們對(duì)中國(guó)的一些隱患有切實(shí)和深入的了解。”

Australia’s warning on Chinese debt follows concerns expressed by the International Monetary Fund and others, including billionaire George Soros, who have warned that adverse shocks in China fuelled by its rising debt levels could spark contagion and hit countries with a high trade exposure to the country.

在澳大利亞就中國(guó)債務(wù)發(fā)出警告之前，國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(IMF)和包括億萬富翁喬治•索羅斯(George Soros)在內(nèi)的其他各方也就這個(gè)問題表示了擔(dān)憂。他們警告稱，債務(wù)水平不斷上升加劇了中國(guó)面臨的不利沖擊，這種沖擊可能導(dǎo)致問題擴(kuò)散，令與中國(guó)貿(mào)易關(guān)系密切的國(guó)家遭受打擊。

Recent figures showing China’s economy grew 6.7 per cent in the three months to end September suggested there was no immediate risk, Mr Morrison said, adding that it was important for Canberra to consolidate its budget deficit in the next five years to build up resilience.

莫里森表示，近期數(shù)據(jù)顯示第三季度中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)了6.7%，這表明沒有迫在眉睫的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。他補(bǔ)充道，對(duì)于澳大利亞而言，重要的是在未來五年里整固預(yù)算赤字，以增強(qiáng)韌性。

“I am not forecasting any change in China but we are very practically minded of the vulnerabilities and what that could convert into — but equally saying they have the capacity to manage it,” he said.

“我不是在預(yù)測(cè)中國(guó)會(huì)出現(xiàn)任何變化，但我們對(duì)中國(guó)的隱患以及這些隱患可能演變成的局面絕不掉以輕心——但平心而論，他們有能力搞定，”他表示。

Mr Morrison said Australia needed to build up its economic resilience to ensure continued prosperity in the face of external shocks. He said the government would tackle its budget deficit and promote lower taxes in a bid to boost private demand and build up resilience. In a recent speech in Sydney Mr Morrison said it was also important to reinforce and build on the strength of Australia’s banking and financial sector.

莫里森表示，澳大利亞需要增強(qiáng)其經(jīng)濟(jì)韌性，以確保在面對(duì)外部沖擊時(shí)繼續(xù)保持繁榮。他表示，政府將解決預(yù)算赤字，并推動(dòng)減稅，以提振私人部門需求和增強(qiáng)韌性。莫里森最近在悉尼的一次演講中表示，加強(qiáng)和鞏固澳大利亞銀行和金融部門的實(shí)力，也是很重要的。

Australia’s economy is growing at an annual rate of 3.3 per cent of gross domestic product, among the highest in the developed world, and has notched up a remarkable quarter of a century of growth without a recession.

目前，澳大利亞國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)的年增長(zhǎng)率為3.3%，是發(fā)達(dá)世界中增長(zhǎng)最快的經(jīng)濟(jì)體之一。而且，澳大利亞實(shí)現(xiàn)了長(zhǎng)達(dá)四分之一個(gè)世紀(jì)的不間斷增長(zhǎng)(其間未發(fā)生一次衰退)，令人矚目。

Surging exports to China have played a key role in enabling its economy to continue growing even during the financial crisis in 2008, when many other countries faltered. Growth has remained robust despite a slump in commodities prices over the past five years.

澳大利亞對(duì)華出口的不斷飆升，對(duì)澳經(jīng)濟(jì)哪怕在2008年金融危機(jī)期間都得以持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)起到了關(guān)鍵作用。2008年金融危機(jī)期間，很多國(guó)家都陷入了低迷。盡管過去五年大宗商品價(jià)格暴跌，但澳大利亞一直維持著強(qiáng)勁的增長(zhǎng)。

“A great strength of the Australian economy is that it is so flexible and adapts to the challenges we have,” said Mr Morrison, who noted that the country’s terms of trade, a measure of the relative value of exports compared with imports, have fallen more than 30 per cent from their peak.

莫里森指出，澳大利亞的貿(mào)易條件指數(shù)(terms of trade，衡量一國(guó)出口對(duì)進(jìn)口的相對(duì)價(jià)值)已經(jīng)比巔峰時(shí)跌去逾30%。他表示：“澳大利亞經(jīng)濟(jì)的一大強(qiáng)項(xiàng)在于，它非常有彈性，能適應(yīng)我們面臨的挑戰(zhàn)。”

Mr Morrison also sounded a warning that record-low interest rates are proving counterproductive in Australia and elsewhere, while rejecting fears a housing bubble is developing in Sydney and Melbourne.

莫里森還警告稱，創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的低利率在澳大利亞和其他地區(qū)事實(shí)上起到了反作用，同時(shí)他駁斥了關(guān)于悉尼和墨爾本正在形成房地產(chǎn)泡沫的擔(dān)憂。

Since the start of the year, house prices in Sydney and Melbourne have surged 13 per cent and 10 per cent respectively, according to data from Corelogic.

據(jù)Corelogic的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，自今年初以來，悉尼和墨爾本的房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格分別飆漲13%和10%。

“There isn’t one housing market in Australia, there are hundreds of housing markets and to make generalisations is dangerous. It would be a mistake to think those [Sydney and Melbourne] were not sound,” he said. “It is hard to make an argument that where house prices are is a function of speculative, finance-driven investment. What that means is the housing debt is underpinned by real asset values.”

“澳大利亞不止有一個(gè)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)，這里有成百上千個(gè)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)，一概而論是危險(xiǎn)的。認(rèn)為那些市場(chǎng)(悉尼和墨爾本)不健康是錯(cuò)誤的，”他稱，“這些地方的房?jī)r(jià)是健康的，說這些地方的房?jī)r(jià)是被融資驅(qū)動(dòng)的投機(jī)活動(dòng)抬高的很難站得住腳。我這樣說的意思是，房地產(chǎn)債務(wù)是有實(shí)際資產(chǎn)價(jià)值作支撐的。”

However, he said there are real housing affordability challenges in Australia for those people seeking to get on to the housing ladder. He said increases in housing supply over coming years would see price growth moderate.

然而，他表示，目前澳大利亞的房?jī)r(jià)確實(shí)讓那些想要購房的無房者難以承受。他稱，未來幾年住房供應(yīng)增加將讓房?jī)r(jià)上漲降溫。

Mr Morrison signalled he did not feel that Australian interest rates should be cut beyond their current record low level of 1.5 per cent.

莫里森表示，他不認(rèn)為澳大利亞應(yīng)該進(jìn)一步削減利率——目前的1.5%已經(jīng)是創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄低點(diǎn)。

“Monetary policy has exhausted its influence,” he said. “Lower rates have led people to save more, to pay down and offset their debts, rather than necessarily going out and spending in the economy,” he said. “As that has increased over time, the impact of interest rate cuts has on each occasion eroded.”

“貨幣政策的作用已經(jīng)發(fā)揮到頭了，”他稱，“降息已經(jīng)導(dǎo)致人們?yōu)閮斶€和抵消債務(wù)而增加儲(chǔ)蓄，而不是出去進(jìn)行必要的支出。隨著這種情況逐漸加劇，降息的效果一次不如一次。”

Mr Morrison said loosening monetary policy on a global scale was only bringing forward demand while the real challenge for advanced economies is to facilitate increased private demand.

莫里森稱，全球范圍內(nèi)的貨幣政策放松只是把需求提前，而發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體面臨的現(xiàn)實(shí)挑戰(zhàn)是促進(jìn)私人部門需求提高。

“That is why we are so keen on tax arrangements that support investment,” he said.

“這正是我們急切地想要推出支持投資的稅務(wù)安排的原因，”他表示。

Mr Morrison’s plan to slash corporate tax rates in Australia from 30 to 25 per cent over the next 10 years is likely to be blocked by parliament.

莫里森計(jì)劃在未來10年將澳大利亞的企業(yè)所得稅率從30%降至25%，但該計(jì)劃可能會(huì)被議會(huì)否決。