特朗普開啟“政治即興秀”時代

As the election count was under way on Tuesday night, I visited the two places in New York where Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump planned to hold their victory parties. The locations at the cavernous glass Javits Center for Clinton and Hilton Hotel for Trump are barely a mile apart, but they were a revealing study in cultural contrasts.

周二晚上美國大選還在計票時，我在紐約市走訪了兩個地方，就是希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)和唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)各自計劃舉行慶功聚會的所在，前者是在擁有巨幅玻璃的賈維茨會議中心(Javits Center)，后者在希爾頓酒店(Hilton Hotel)。兩個活動地點相隔不過一英里，但完全可以把它們當作一項具有啟發(fā)意義的文化比較研究的對象。

The Clinton event was organised with a slick hyper-efficiency. The party had clearly been planned for months on the presumption of victory and it reeked of professional stage management. However, it also felt distinctly clinical, if not impersonal.

希拉里那邊的活動組織得老練高效，顯然是基于獲勝的假設(shè)籌劃了好幾個月了，很有專業(yè)舞臺管理的味道，但也顯得高冷甚至缺乏人情味。

The Trump event, by contrast, felt chaotic and improvised. It had been thrown together so rapidly that there were still tourists staying in the hotel, and the system for channelling guests through the lobby was erratic, relying on hastily created signs. As the night wore on, one bar ran low on alcohol and there was little food. But that air of improvisation also made it feel enthusiastic — and distinctly human.

相比之下，特朗普的活動讓人感到混亂和即興。由于是倉促組織起來的，酒店里還有游客逗留，連引導(dǎo)嘉賓穿過大堂的環(huán)節(jié)都混亂無序，要靠草草趕制的標識。隨著夜深，酒吧里酒水很少了，也沒什么食物。但這種即興的氛圍也帶著一種熱烈氣息，富有人情味兒。

These events speak volumes about the election and help to explain where America is now heading. When the historians write the story of the extraordinary 2016 contest, they will find numerous economic reasons to explain Mr Trump’s apparent victory; his supporters were suffering economic pain, angry about globalisation and unhappy about cultural change.

這兩場活動頗能說明本屆選舉的實質(zhì)，而且有助于解釋美國正在走向哪里。當歷史學家記述2016年這場不同尋常的大選時，他們會找出許多經(jīng)濟原因來解釋特朗普為何能以明顯優(yōu)勢取勝，比如他的支持者正承受經(jīng)濟陣痛，他們對全球化憤怒，對本國文化所經(jīng)歷的變化不滿。

However, aside from these tangible economic grievances, there is another way to frame the contest: this was a battle between a slick professional political elite versus the unprofessional or anti-professional class. Or to put it another way, on one side of this contest was an establishment which is not only used to stage managing events with consummate skill, but also massaging messages and controlling opinion with slick data analysis. But many of the voters who have backed Mr Trump do not live in this world; they do not think they can control their lives by pressing a few buttons on their smartphones or tablets.

但是除了上述明確的經(jīng)濟層面上的不滿之外，我們還可以從另外一個角度來描述這場選舉：這是專業(yè)老練的政治精英階層與非專業(yè)、甚至是反專業(yè)階層之間的一場斗爭?；蛘邠Q句話說，這場競爭的一方是建制派，不僅習慣于爐火純青地組織需要具備舞臺管理技巧的活動，而且還能以老練的數(shù)據(jù)分析手段篡改信息，控制輿論。但許多支持特朗普的選民并不生活在這樣一個世界里，他們不認為在智能手機或平板電腦上按幾個鍵就可以控制自己的生活。

They feel that they are victims of events, constantly forced to improvise in a hostile, unfathomable world. So when Mr Trump acted in an inconsistent and chaotic manner, they — unlike the professional elites — do not shudder in shock. Instead, they simply view this as a sign that he is human, authentic and transparent; he, like them, makes mistakes with his words (and much else.) He is attractive to some voters because he is not stage managed; he speaks about the need for change.

他們覺得自己是這些活動的受害者，一次又一次被迫在一個充滿敵意、變化莫測的世界里臨時湊合。因此當特朗普行事反復(fù)無常，混亂無章，他們非但不會像專業(yè)精英那樣震驚，反而將此視作一個跡象，表明他是人，真實且透明;他就像他們自己，會說錯話(也會做錯事)。他對部分選民很有吸引力，因為他沒有被舞臺控制，他說出了變化的需要。

Mr Trump has always instinctively understood the nature of this battle, hence his refusal to use data analysis to read the vote, teleprompter or other political tools of the trade. Indeed, much to his aides irritation, he was reluctant to even use a professional make-up artist before he went on stage — a stance that even sparked a full blown behind-the-scenes row just before the third TV debate, since his spray tan had started to fade and gave him an unhealthy looking pallor.

特朗普總是本能地了解這場戰(zhàn)斗的本質(zhì)，因此他拒絕使用數(shù)據(jù)分析來解讀投票，拒絕使用提詞器或其他專業(yè)性政治工具。事實上，他甚至不愿在上臺前使用專業(yè)化妝師，這一姿態(tài)讓他的助手非常惱火，甚至在第三場電視辯論前引爆了一次幕后大爭吵，原因是他皮膚噴涂的小麥色已開始褪色，讓他看上去蒼白得不健康。

Mrs Clinton, by contrast, used every trick of modern political campaigning to perfection, including an army of stylists. But it made no difference — the improvised chaotic style and the call for change won over the voters. Call this, if you like, a vote for disruption, albeit not of the sort that Silicon Valley will like.

相比之下，希拉里把現(xiàn)代政治競選活動的所有手段都運用的相當完美，包括一個造型師隊伍。但這些都沒有用，即興的混亂風格以及要求改革的呼聲贏得了選民的心。你大可以說這次選民們投票支持“顛覆”，只不過并非硅谷所喜歡的那種顛覆。

“The best thing about Trump is that he is not a professional politician,” one of his advisers said wearily shortly before the vote. “But the worst thing is that he is not a professional politician. Either way, you cannot change him.”

“特朗普的最大優(yōu)勢是他不是一個專業(yè)的政客，”特朗普的一名顧問在大選前不久疲憊的說，“但這也是他的最大劣勢。不管怎樣，你無法改變他。”

That, of course, is why markets and many business leaders feel so utterly terrified right now. Little wonder. After all, the problem with having a non-professional in office is not just that they lack experience; it is that it is also hard to predict how they might behave in the future. Nobody can assume that the regular rules of politics will apply; nor the rules that journalists, lobbyists, investors and business leaders have relied upon. We cannot even assume that the sketchy policy platforms that Mr Trump has already revealed will transpire. We are heading for a world where policymaking is likely to feel as improvised as the victory party in the Hilton Hotel.

當然，這就是為何市場和很多企業(yè)界領(lǐng)袖現(xiàn)在感到極度害怕的原因。一點不奇怪。畢竟，一個非專業(yè)政客執(zhí)政的問題不僅僅在于他缺乏經(jīng)驗;還在于很難預(yù)測他將來可能會做出何種行為。沒有人能聲稱，慣常的政治規(guī)則會適用;也沒有人能聲稱，記者、游說者、投資者和企業(yè)領(lǐng)袖所依賴的那些規(guī)則會適用。我們甚至無法聲稱，特朗普競選中所說的粗淺的政策綱領(lǐng)會成為現(xiàn)實。我們正在走向一個世界，在這里，政策制定可能就像希爾頓酒店的慶功派對一樣，給人一種即興的感覺。

While this type of disruption is terrifying for the establishment, the message from voters is clear: many of them want change at almost any cost. Hold on to your seats for a potentially wild ride. We have embarked on an era of political improvisation.

盡管這種顛覆正讓建制派感到害怕，但選民們發(fā)出的信息相當明確：很多人幾乎不惜一切代價的想要改變。坐穩(wěn)了，未來可能踏上一段狂野之旅。我們進入了一個政治即興秀(political improvisation)的時代。