特朗普顧問淡化美中貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)可能性

Advisers to president-elect Donald Trump have already begun playing down the prospect of a full-blown US trade war with China, amid concern that a new era of US protectionism would have damaging consequences for the global economy.

美國當選總統(tǒng)唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的顧問們已經(jīng)在著手淡化美中發(fā)生全面貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的可能性。人們擔心，美國步入新的貿(mào)易保護主義時代會對全球經(jīng)濟造成破壞性影響。

Indeed, some analysts wonder whether the tough trade promises made on the campaign trail may take a back seat as Mr Trump focuses on tax cuts and an infrastructure programme designed to boost US growth, the prospect of which has buoyed markets since Tuesday’s election.

事實上，部分分析人士在想，特朗普會不會把競選過程中作出的強硬貿(mào)易承諾放在次要位置上，而集中精力推行減稅和旨在促進美國經(jīng)濟增長的基建計劃——自上周二美國大選以來，這種可能性對市場起到了提振作用。

“There aren’t going to be trade wars,” Wilbur Ross, the New York investor and Trump adviser, told US media last week.

特朗普的顧問、紐約投資人士威爾伯•羅斯(Wilbur Ross)上周向美國媒體表示：“不會發(fā)生貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的。”

Mr Ross argues that Mr Trump’s widely-quoted campaign threat to impose a 45 per cent tariff on Chinese imports — seized on by economists as the potential trigger for a trade war with Beijing — has been misunderstood and amounts only to negotiating tactics.

特朗普曾在競選過程中威脅稱，要對從中國進口的商品征收稅率為45%的關(guān)稅。經(jīng)濟學家們抓住這句話不放，稱此舉可能引發(fā)與中國的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)。對此，羅斯辯稱道，人們誤解了特朗普這句被廣泛援引的話，它只能算是談判的戰(zhàn)術(shù)。

Such a figure would be dependent on a finding that China’s currency, the renminbi, was undervalued by 45 per cent, Mr Ross says. The International Monetary Fund has called the RMB fairly valued while US officials point out any recent intervention by Beijing in currency markets has been designed to slow a market-driven decline, arguably to the US’s benefit.

羅斯表示，這一數(shù)字可能是基于一項認為人民幣匯率被低估了45%的研究結(jié)果。國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)已表示，人民幣的估值是合理的。美國官員也指出，中國政府最近對匯市作出的任何干預，都旨在延緩一輪由市場驅(qū)動的人民幣貶值，這可以說是對美國有益的。

While escalation to a full trade war is in doubt, this does not mean a Trump administration is planning to be soft with China.

雖然升級為全面貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的前景存疑，但這并不意味著特朗普政府打算對華采取溫和立場。

Mr Trump has promised to direct his Treasury Secretary to label China a currency manipulator within his first 100 days, something the outgoing President Barack Obama avoided doing for fear of provoking Beijing.

特朗普承諾，要在上任百日內(nèi)指示美國財政部將中國列為匯率操縱國。由于擔心激怒北京方面，目前即將卸任的美國總統(tǒng)巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)過去一直沒有這么做。

Although such a move would be largely symbolic and carry few immediate trade consequences “this would almost certainly incite an aggressive reaction from China, rapidly escalating bilateral tensions,” says Eswar Prasad, a former IMF China expert now at Cornell University.

曾任IMF中國部專家、如今在康奈爾大學(Cornell University)任教的埃斯瓦爾•普拉薩德(Eswar Prasad)表示，雖然此類舉措在很大程度上將是象征性的、對貿(mào)易幾乎沒有什么即刻影響，但“這么做幾乎肯定會引發(fā)中國的強硬反應，迅速加劇雙方之間的緊張態(tài)勢”。

Mr Trump would undoubtedly bring high-profile cases against China at the World Trade Organisation and impose steep anti-dumping tariffs against steel and other Chinese imports, much as the Obama administration has. His 100-day plans calls for his administration to “identify all foreign trading abuses that unfairly impact American workers” and “use every tool under American and international law to end those abuses immediately”.

特朗普無疑會在世界貿(mào)易組織(WTO)對華發(fā)起高調(diào)的訴訟，對鋼材和其他從中國進口的商品征收高額反傾銷稅——這很像奧巴馬政府已經(jīng)采取的做法。特朗普的百日計劃要求其政府“甄別出一切對美國勞動者造成不公平影響的外國貿(mào)易不當行為”，并“依據(jù)美國及國際法律動用各種手段立刻掃滅這些不當行為”。

Mr Trump could also toughen foreign investment rules and the national security-focused review process conducted by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US (CFIUS).

特朗普還可能收緊外國投資規(guī)定和由美國外國投資委員會(CFIUS)開展的、聚焦于國家安全的審查流程。

China has long complained the current system discriminates against its companies. Yet some see Mr Trump embracing congressional calls to broaden CFIUS’s remit to add a net economic benefit test or other strategic considerations in a move that could block more Chinese investments in the US.

長時間來，中國一直抱怨美國現(xiàn)行制度歧視中國企業(yè)。不過，有些人認為特朗普會對國會擴大CFIUS職責的呼聲采取支持態(tài)度。美國國會呼吁在CFIUS的審查流程中增添一項凈經(jīng)濟效益考察或者其他戰(zhàn)略考量，此舉可能會封殺更多的中國對美投資。

But such a step would hit part of the economic relationship growing in the US’s favour. According to a new study by the Rhodium Group, a research firm, cumulative US direct investment in China between 1990 and 2015 reached $228bn. The Chinese equivalent into the US was worth $64bn. But this year alone Chinese FDI into the US is poised to hit a record $30bn, according to Rhodium, and anything disturbing that would hit American workers.

但這樣的舉動將對日益有利于美國的經(jīng)濟往來造成部分沖擊。研究機構(gòu)榮鼎咨詢(Rhodium Group)的一項新研究顯示，1990年至2015年間，美國對華直接投資累計達2280億美元。而中國對美的同類投資為640億美元。但榮鼎咨詢的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，僅今年一年中國對美的直接投資就將達到創(chuàng)紀錄的300億美元，任何干擾這一趨勢的舉措都將對美國勞動者造成沖擊。

What happens next will depend on who Mr Trump brings into office with him.

至于接下來會發(fā)生什么，取決于特朗普會任命誰進入他的政府。

Dan DiMicco, the former chief executive of steel company Nucor and a longtime advocate of a tougher US line on China, is the point person on trade in Mr Trump’s transition team. Mr DiMicco, who is a candidate for both Commerce Secretary and US Trade Representative, told the FT on Saturday that any notions of a Trump administration taking a softer post-election line on trade were “false rumours”.

在特朗普的過渡班子中，貿(mào)易問題的負責人是鋼鐵企業(yè)紐柯(Nucor)前首席執(zhí)行官、長期鼓吹美國對華采取更強硬立場的丹•迪米科(Dan DiMicco)。迪米科既是美國商務(wù)部長的候選人，也是美國貿(mào)易代表(US Trade Representative)的候選人。上周六，迪米科向英國《金融時報》表示，所有關(guān)于大選后上臺的特朗普政府會軟化其先前貿(mào)易立場的說法都是“謠言”。

Another campaign adviser, economist Peter Navarro, is a well-known China hawk whose 2013 film “Death by China” was praised by Mr Trump as an “important documentary”.

特朗普的另一位競選顧問、經(jīng)濟學家彼得•納瓦羅(Peter Navarro)是著名的對華鷹派，特朗普曾稱贊他在2013年制作的影片《致命中國》(Death by China)是一部“重要的紀錄片”。

But Mr Trump’s running mate, Mike Pence, who has taken charge of the transition, is a free trader who as governor in Indiana has travelled to China to court investment. Moreover, there are already signs the Republican trade establishment is entering the fray with a former US Chamber of Commerce lobbyist, Rolf Lundberg, put in charge of the transition’s trade policy implementation.

不過，特朗普的競選搭檔、負責過渡工作的邁克•彭斯(Mike Pence)是個主張自由貿(mào)易的人。作為印第安納州州長，彭斯曾赴中國招商引資。此外，已有跡象顯示共和黨貿(mào)易建制派正參與進來，前美國商會(US Chamber of Commerce)游說人士羅爾夫•倫德伯格(Rolf Lundberg)就被指派負責過渡班子的貿(mào)易政策實施工作。

“Given how the financial markets are reacting — which is splendid from a Trump viewpoint — I don’t think Trump’s trade team will want the trade part to spoil the [economic benefits of the] fiscal stimulus part,” says Gary Hufbauer, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

彼得森國際經(jīng)濟研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)高級研究員加里•赫夫鮑爾(Gary Hufbauer)表示：“考慮到金融市場目前的反應——在特朗普看來反應相當不錯——我不認為特朗普的貿(mào)易團隊希望貿(mào)易這部分毀掉財政刺激那部分(帶來的經(jīng)濟好處)。”

Some in China are optimistic. “Most American presidential candidates don’t carry out their threats once they become president,” says Li Xinchuang, head of the China Metallurgical Planning and Research Institute.

部分中國人士持樂觀態(tài)度。中國冶金工業(yè)規(guī)劃研究院(China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute)院長李新創(chuàng)表示：“多數(shù)美國總統(tǒng)候選人在當選后都不會把選舉時的威脅付諸實施。”

Others remain fearful, however. “In the post-Cold War era, Trump is an unprecedented protectionist,” says Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor at Renmin University in Beijing. “Sooner or later his protectionism and populism will damage Sino-US trade relations.”

但也有些人士仍然感到擔憂。“在后冷戰(zhàn)時代，特朗普是個史無前例的貿(mào)易保護主義者。”中國人民大學(Renmin University)國際關(guān)系學教授時殷弘表示，“他的保護主義和民粹主義遲早會破壞中美貿(mào)易關(guān)系。”