中國大宗商品期貨漲勢趨于結束

A months-long rally in China’s commodity futures may be coming to an end after the country’s exchanges took steps to crack down on speculative trading.

中國大宗商品期貨持續(xù)數(shù)月的上漲可能趨于結束，此前中國各交易所采取了打擊投機性交易的措施。

Futures for coal and iron ore that rallied sharply this year have gyrated this week following a dramatic rout on Friday evening after China’s three commodity exchanges increased margin requirements.

今年大幅上漲的煤炭和鐵礦石期貨在上周五暴跌后，本周劇烈波動，此前中國3家大宗商品交易所提高了保證金要求。

“It ran up too much and the increased margin requirements by the exchanges are starting to bite,” said a trader at one house that has taken big bets on commodities futures this year.

一位交易員表示：“它漲的太多了，而交易所提高保證金要求開始產生影響。”該交易員所在的公司今年大舉押注大宗商品期貨。

Iron ore futures on the Dalian exchange dropped by more than 6 per cent to Rmb562 a tonne on Wednesday, although they are still up 75 per cent since the start of the year.

大連交易所的鐵礦石期貨周三下跌逾6%，至每噸562元人民幣，不過與年初相比仍上漲了75%，

That helped push down shares of Australian miners Fortescue Metals Group, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton. Front-month steel futures in Shanghai fell by more than 3 per cent.

這進而壓低了澳大利亞礦商Fortescue Metals Group、力拓(Rio Tinto)和必和必拓(BHP Billiton)的股價。上海的即月鋼鐵期貨下跌逾3%。

Benchmark Australian iron ore prices delivered to China have fallen almost 10 per cent since the start of the week to $72.2 a tonne.

發(fā)往中國的基準澳大利亞鐵礦石價格自本周初以來下跌近10%，至每噸72.2美元。

“People think it’s hard to sustain such high prices,” said Chen Yan, deputy general manager of Steelhome, a steel market consultancy in Shanghai. “This is a normal market correction.”

上海鋼鐵市場咨詢公司鋼之家(Steelhome)副總經理陳艷表示：“人們認為很難維持如此高的價格。這是正常的市場回調。”

Those supply shortages drove trading in the rest of the “ferrous complex” related to steel such as iron ore, which reached a 33-month high on Monday.

供應短缺推動了鐵礦石等其他鐵相關期貨的交易。周一交易量達到33個月的高點。

The spring rally ended in a similar fashion in April after the exchanges moved to make trading more expensive.

今年4月，在交易所采取措施提高交易手續(xù)費之后，春季的大宗商品上漲以類似方式結束。

While the rallies have been backed by supply cuts they have also been fuelled by excess liquidity in China, in part due to margin lending, where investors borrow money to buy securities. Funds in China relied on margin lending to fuel a rise in Shanghai stocks in the first half of 2015.

盡管大宗商品上漲受到供應下降的支持，但中國過多的流動性也在推波助瀾，這在一定程度上可歸因于保證金貸款——讓投資者借錢購買證券產品。中國的基金公司在2015年上半年依賴保證金貸款助燃了上海股市的上漲。

Investor money has not limited itself to bets on the futures exchanges, however. Humble garlic is also up sharply this year.

然而，投資者不僅僅將資金投到期貨交易所。今年不顯眼的大蒜價格也大幅上漲。