退出TPP對美國不利

The ultimate impact of Donald Trump’s announced intention to withdraw the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal is yet to be seen. But it is clear that it will give China an opening to assume economic leadership in Asia and may be treated by leaders across the region as a sign of America’s retreat from the responsibilities of world leadership.

唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)宣布有意讓美國退出貿(mào)易協(xié)議《跨太平洋伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定》(TPP)的最終影響尚不得而知。但是此舉明顯將給中國一個爭奪亞洲經(jīng)濟領(lǐng)導(dǎo)權(quán)的突破口，還可能被該地區(qū)各國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人視為美國放棄世界領(lǐng)袖責(zé)任的跡象。

The global progress of American economic and political values has been the dominant trend in human events since the end of the second world war. The US and its allies prospered greatly from it and are immeasurably more secure than in the prewar world, when we tried to isolate ourselves with, among other follies, protectionist trade policies.

自從二戰(zhàn)結(jié)束以來，美國向全球輸出經(jīng)濟和政治價值觀的進(jìn)展一直是人類事件的主導(dǎo)性趨勢。美國及其盟友借助這種趨勢蓬勃發(fā)展，安全程度遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于戰(zhàn)前世界。二戰(zhàn)前，除其他種種愚蠢行為外，各國還試圖用貿(mào)易保護主義政策自我孤立起來。

To be sure, the changes wrought by liberalised international trade have not all been positive. Together with technology-driven productivity gains, it has contributed to job losses in industries and communities where manufacturing was once the main support of a thriving middle class. The US is still a leading manufacturer but fewer Americans are employed in those industries. That trend will continue whether or not we sign another trade agreement because productivity gains will continue. Most lost manufacturing jobs were made obsolete by technology innovations.

沒錯，國際貿(mào)易自由化帶來的變化并不都是積極的。加上技術(shù)進(jìn)步推動的生產(chǎn)率提升，貿(mào)易自由化在那些制造業(yè)曾經(jīng)是欣欣向榮的中產(chǎn)階級的主要支撐的產(chǎn)業(yè)和社區(qū)加劇了就業(yè)崗位消失。美國仍然是領(lǐng)先的制造業(yè)大國，但是在這些行業(yè)就業(yè)的美國人日益減少。無論我們是否簽訂又一份貿(mào)易協(xié)定，這種趨勢都將持續(xù)下去，因為生產(chǎn)率仍然在不斷提高。制造業(yè)崗位的消失大部分源于技術(shù)創(chuàng)新。

But turning aside opportunities to sell more goods and services overseas will add to job losses, not stem them. One in 12 American jobs is dependent on international trade.

但是，放棄向海外出售更多商品和服務(wù)的機會，將進(jìn)一步加重(而非遏止)就業(yè)崗位消失。美國每12個就業(yè)崗位中就有1個依賴于國際貿(mào)易。

To argue against the global economy is like stating opposition to the weather — it continues whether you like it or not. More than 95 per cent of the world’s consumers live outside the US. The global economy will become more accessible and competitive, whether we try to remove trade barriers or impose them. That is why withdrawing from TPP will hurt our ability to compete.

反對全球化經(jīng)濟，就像跟天氣唱反調(diào)——無論你喜不喜歡，它都我行我素。世界上95%以上的消費者生活在美國以外。無論我們移除還是設(shè)置貿(mào)易壁壘，全球經(jīng)濟都會變得越來越開放并具有競爭性。這就是退出TPP將有損美國競爭力的原因。

Barriers to trade in America are lower than in the other TPP countries and regulatory standards are higher. TPP would have removed more than 18,000 tariffs that had made our exports more expensive and less competitive in 11 Pacific Rim markets. More importantly, the agreement was designed as a model for future trade agreements by focusing on non-tariff barriers to trade, pursuing regulatory reform in areas such as intellectual property, labour and environment laws, and limiting government support for state-owned companies.

美國的貿(mào)易壁壘低于TPP其他成員國，而監(jiān)管標(biāo)準(zhǔn)高于其他國家。TPP將取消超過1.8萬項關(guān)稅，這些關(guān)稅使得我們向環(huán)太平洋地區(qū)11個市場出口的成本更高、降低了我們的競爭力。更重要的是，該協(xié)定從設(shè)計上聚焦于非關(guān)稅貿(mào)易壁壘;推動在知識產(chǎn)權(quán)、勞動力和環(huán)境法律等領(lǐng)域進(jìn)行監(jiān)管改革;以及限制政府對國有企業(yè)的支持，借此成為未來貿(mào)易協(xié)定的榜樣。

Beyond its economic benefits, TPP was to serve as an important part of the foundation of American leadership in the Asia-Pacific region. It would strengthen US alliances there and build new relationships based on mutual economic interests and increasingly shared geopolitical ones. Its collapse will benefit China.

除經(jīng)濟利益外，TPP還是美國在亞太地區(qū)確立領(lǐng)導(dǎo)地位的重要舉措。它將強化美國在該地區(qū)的同盟關(guān)系，以相互經(jīng)濟利益和日益共享的地緣政治利益為基礎(chǔ)打造新關(guān)系。該協(xié)定夭折將有利于中國。

Beijing is pushing its own trade agreement, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, with many countries that would have been in TPP. It is a less advantageous agreement than TPP for all the countries involved save China but it offers Beijing an easier way of sealing its regional ascendancy than its heavy-handed claims on disputed islands in the South China Sea.

北京方面正在推動自己的貿(mào)易協(xié)定《區(qū)域全面經(jīng)濟伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定》(RCEP)，其中很多國家原本會加入TPP。除了中國本身以外，RCEP對其他成員國的好處不如TPP，但是，相比中國在南中國海爭議島嶼上的強硬主張，RCEP給中國提供了一個實現(xiàn)區(qū)域優(yōu)勢的更容易方法。

Politics abhors a vacuum and Asian countries will gravitate towards China if US influence is perceived as declining. Rumours of the next administration’s intention to reduce the US military presence in Asia are shaping that perception, too, to China’s advantage.

政治厭惡真空，如果亞洲各國認(rèn)為美國影響力正在減弱，它們會向中國傾斜。有關(guān)特朗普政府有意縮減美國在亞洲軍事存在的傳言，也在促使各國形成這種看法，讓中國得利。

It is a fool’s errand to try to recreate a mythical time when Fortress America was impregnable, unaffected by the world’s troubles. Instead, we should have faith in American leadership and the power of our values, including the advocacy of free trade, which have made the world and us safer, freer and richer.

嘗試重建孤立主義的“美國堡壘”、不受外部世界種種麻煩影響的傳奇時代，是徒勞無益的蠢事。相反，我們應(yīng)該相信美國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力和美國價值觀(包括主張自由貿(mào)易，使整個世界和我國都更加安全、自由和富有)的力量。

The writer is a US senator and chairman of the Senate Committee on Armed Services

本文作者為美國參議員、美國參議院軍事委員會(Senate Armed Services Committee)主席