美國加息將暴露中國經濟弱點

As Washington steels itself for the arrival of Donald Trump and a rise in interest rates, China could be forgiven for feeling itself besieged.

在華盛頓準備好迎接唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的到來以及利率上升之際，中國可能會情有可原地產生一種受到圍困的感覺。

The country is home to the world’s most leveraged corporate sector, a notoriously volatile property sector and a swath of banks that depend on borrowing on the money markets to fund loans.

中國擁有全球杠桿率最高的企業(yè)部門，房地產行業(yè)以波動出名，還有眾多銀行依賴貨幣市場借款為貸款融資。

That makes the Chinese economy particularly sensitive to expectations of increasing interest rates, which together with the strong US dollar since Mr Trump’s election, have already sparked a rush to sell emerging market bonds and stocks.

這使得中國經濟對加息預期尤為敏感，再加上特朗普當選以來美元走強，已引發(fā)一波新興市場債券和股票拋售潮。

“I think the Trump factor [will result in] more aggressive hiking of US interest rates, not just the one expected in December but also several times next year,” said Shen Jianguang, chief economist at Mizuho Securities in Hong Kong, speaking ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting which is widely expected to raise rates next week.

瑞穗證券(Mizuho Securities)駐香港首席經濟學家沈建光表示：“我認為特朗普因素會導致美聯儲更加激進地上調美國利率，不僅是12月各方預期的這一次，明年還會有好幾次。”他在下周美聯儲(Fed)開會前發(fā)表了上述言論，市場普遍預計此次會議將宣布加息。

“A stronger US dollar will complicate the Chinese government’s efforts to stabilise the renminbi exchange rate and Beijing may have to tighten monetary policy,” he added.

他還表示：“美元走強將使中國政府穩(wěn)定人民幣匯率的努力復雜化，北京方面可能不得不收緊貨幣政策。”

The vast size of China’s corporate debt mountain — which stands at over 250 per cent of gross domestic product, up from 125 per cent in 2008 — means that even minor increases in short-term interest rates may squeeze corporate activity and precipitate defaults, thereby hampering economic growth.

中國企業(yè)債務負擔的龐大規(guī)模——相當于國內生產總值(GDP)的250%，相比之下2008年為125%——意味著，即使短期利率微幅上漲都可能擠壓企業(yè)活動，引發(fā)違約，從而阻礙經濟增長。

Alex Wolf, emerging markets economist at Standard Life Investments, argues that default risks are rising because more and more corporations are relying on the short-term money market to raise the finance they need to repay existing debts.

標準人壽投資(Standard Life Investments)的新興市場經濟學家亞歷克斯•沃爾夫(Alex Wolf)認為，違約風險正在上升，因為越來越多公司在依靠短期貨幣市場籌集資金以償還現有債務。

“Rising rates, especially short-term, increases the stress on weaker companies and raises the risk of defaults, he said. The six-month Shanghai interbank offered rate, a benchmark short-term interest rate, has surged in recent weeks as monetary conditions have tightened.

他說，利率上升，尤其是短期利率上升，加大了較弱公司所受的壓力，增加了違約風險。隨著貨幣條件收緊，6個月期的上海銀行間同業(yè)拆放利率(一種基準短期利率)近幾周出現飆升。

Estimates by Fitch, the rating agency, reveal a level of pain in corporate China that is not hinted at by official statistics. Some 15 per cent to 21 per cent of loans in the Chinese banking system are already non-performing, Fitch estimates, compared with official numbers of less than 2 per cent.

評級機構惠譽(Fitch)的估算揭示了從官方統(tǒng)計數據看不出的中國企業(yè)經受痛苦的程度。據惠譽估計，中國銀行體系約15%到20%的貸款已經屬于不良貸款，而官方的不良貸款率還不到2%。

Against this backdrop, an upsurge in Chinese capital outflows, to nearly $70bn in November, intensifies the challenges facing Beijing. With money pouring out of China, Beijing has little choice but to tighten domestic monetary conditions in spite of the difficulties for companies already unable to service their debt.

在這種背景下，中國資本外流的激增(11月接近700億美元)加劇了中國政府面臨的挑戰(zhàn)。隨著資本不斷流出中國，北京方面別無選擇，只得收緊國內貨幣條件，盡管這會使已經難以償還債務的企業(yè)更加艱難。

The Institute of International Finance, a global association of financial institutions, calculates that in the first 10 months of this year net capital outflows from China totalled $530bn, with October marking the 33rd straight month in which more money left the country than flowed in.

金融機構的全球協(xié)會——國際金融協(xié)會(Institute of International Finance)估計，今年頭10個月，中國的資本凈流出總計5300億美元，10月是連續(xù)第33個月資金流出超過資金流入。

A strong dollar makes US assets more attractive relative to those held in a depreciating renminbi, prompting the Chinese to search for ways around recently-strengthened capital controls to send their money offshore.

相對于以不斷貶值的人民幣計價的資產，強勢美元讓美國資產更具吸引力，這促使中國人想方設法避開最近收緊的資本管制，將資金轉移到境外。

The rise in short-term interest rates might also hit one of the weakest pillars in China’s financial architecture. Several midsized banks, such as the Bank of Jinzhou, find it hard to attract deposits and rely, therefore, on borrowing from the short-term money markets — but the cost of such borrowing is now rising.

短期利率上升還可能沖擊中國金融架構的最弱支柱之一。錦州銀行(Bank of Jinzhou)等幾家中型銀行發(fā)現很難吸引存款，因而依賴從短期貨幣市場借款，但這種借款的成本現在開始上升。

Property companies — a mainstay of the wider economy — are also acutely vulnerable to the surge in short-term rates. Bond issuance by developers has plummeted since authorities tightened rules in October to rein in an overheated market, crimping their ability to invest in new projects.

房地產公司(整體經濟的主力軍)也極容易受到短期利率飆升的影響。自中國政府今年10月收緊規(guī)定以控制這個過熱的市場以來，開發(fā)商的債券發(fā)行已大幅減少，這損害了它們投資新項目的能力。

In November, property developers issued only Rmb12bn ($1.7bn) in bonds, down from a monthly average of Rmb86bn from January to September, according to FT Confidential Research, a unit of the Financial Times.

根據英國《金融時報》旗下“投資參考”(FT Confidential Research)的數據，今年11月，房地產開發(fā)商僅發(fā)行了120億元人民幣(合17億美元)的債券，而1月至9月的月度均值為860億元人民幣。

Such economic stresses are complemented by the raft of political uncertainties that attend Mr Trump’s accession to the White House. He has threatened to slap tariffs on Chinese exports to the US and label Beijing a “currency manipulator” because of charges that the renminbi is undervalued.

伴隨特朗普當選美國總統(tǒng)出現的一系列政治不確定性，加大了這種經濟壓力。特朗普曾威脅要對中國輸美商品征收關稅，并且要把中國列為一個“匯率操縱國”，因為有人指控人民幣被低估。

“Is Donald Trump looking for a foreign enemy to redirect the attention of his supporters as he implements a plutocratic fiscal agenda with his plutocratic cabinet?” said Gary Greenberg, head of emerging markets at Hermes Investment Management, a fund.

基金公司Hermes Investment Management新興市場主管加里•格林伯格(Gary Greenberg)表示：“在唐納德•特朗普的富豪內閣實施以富豪為導向的財政議程之際，他是不是在尋找一個外敵，以轉移其支持者的注意力?”

A telephone call last week between Mr Trump and the leader of Taiwan, with which the US has no diplomatic relations, has also strained relations.

上周特朗普與臺灣領導人通電話也影響了中美關系，美國與臺灣之間沒有外交關系。

“The Taiwan call, along with undiplomatic tweets, gives [Mr Trump] a far away enemy who can be targeted as the source of US ills,” Mr Greenberg said. “China can react very angrily. Could this escalate? Possibly, but it is a little early to say.”

“與臺灣通電話，再加上不遵守外交規(guī)矩的推文，給(特朗普)提供了一個遙遠的敵人，可以把美國的種種弊病都歸咎于對方，”格林伯格表示，“中國可能會做出非常憤怒的反應。這種局勢可能會升級嗎?有可能，但現在要下結論還有點早。”