人民幣全球使用回落

Global use of the renminbi is on the wane just one year after the International Monetary Fund formally recognised it as an “international reserve currency”, in a setback for Beijing’s ambition to promote its currency as a rival to the US dollar.

國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(IMF)正式承認(rèn)人民幣為“國(guó)際儲(chǔ)備貨幣”僅一年后，人民幣的全球使用正在萎縮，令北京方面推動(dòng)人民幣成為美元競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的目標(biāo)受挫。

According to central bank data, the amount of China’s foreign trade settled in renminbi surged from zero in 2010 to 26 per cent in 2015, but has since fallen to 16 per cent. Cross-border renminbi payments over the first nine months of this year fell 16 per cent compared with the same period last year, reflecting the fall in renminbi usage for trade and cross-border investment.

根據(jù)中國(guó)央行(PBoC)數(shù)據(jù)，中國(guó)以人民幣結(jié)算的對(duì)外貿(mào)易從2010年的0%激增到2015年的26%，但之后已下降到16%。今年頭九個(gè)月跨境人民幣支付同比下降16%，反映人民幣在貿(mào)易和跨境投資方面使用下降。

The renminbi’s rising popularity on foreign exchange markets has also proved fleeting. In 2013 it was the ninth most-traded currency, up seven places from 2010, according to the Bank for International Settlements. It has barely budged since, ranking eighth this year.

人民幣在匯市交易增加也被證明是短暫的。據(jù)國(guó)際清算銀行(Bank for International Settlements)，2013年人民幣為第九大交易貨幣，比2010年上升七位。此后這個(gè)排名幾乎沒有變動(dòng)，今年排在第八位。

Waning demand for the renminbi has been largely driven by expectations of continued depreciation against the dollar and concerns about the outlook for the Chinese economy, which is growing at its slowest annual rate in a quarter of a century. After a decade of steady appreciation against the dollar that peaked in early 2014, the renminbi has since lost 13 per cent of its value against the greenback.

對(duì)人民幣的需求減少主要緣于其相對(duì)于美元持續(xù)貶值的預(yù)期以及對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)前景的擔(dān)憂，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)正以四分之一個(gè)世紀(jì)以來最慢的年度增幅增長(zhǎng)。人民幣兌美元經(jīng)過十年的穩(wěn)定升值后，在2014年初達(dá)到峰值，此后人民幣兌美元匯率已下跌13%。

Its recent decline against the dollar would have been even steeper without central bank backing. The People’s Bank of China has been selling dollars to support the renminbi — a strategy that has contributed to the 25 per cent fall in China’s foreign reserves to $3tn.

如果不是中國(guó)央行的支持，最近人民幣兌美元匯率的下跌會(huì)更劇烈。中國(guó)央行一直在拋售美元來支持人民幣，這一策略在一定程度上導(dǎo)致中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備減少了25%，至3萬億美元。

Reform setbacks dating back to Beijing’s decision to intervene in the country’s plunging stock markets in July 2015 have also taken their toll. The authorities have since made it easier for foreign capital to enter financial markets, while tightening outflows.

北京方面在2015年7月決定干預(yù)國(guó)內(nèi)持續(xù)大跌的股市，可追溯到那時(shí)的改革遇挫也帶來損失。有關(guān)部門在那之后放寬外資進(jìn)入金融市場(chǎng)，同時(shí)收緊資本流出。