中資境外收購(gòu)可能退潮

In mid-December, Chinese conglomerate Fosun International announced the sale of its casualty insurance unit Ironshore to Liberty Mutual for nearly $3bn. That same week, a team of Anbang Insurance staffers flew to Seoul from the group’s Fifth Avenue building in New York, in connection with its planned purchase of two insurance companies in South Korea.

去年12月中旬，中國(guó)企業(yè)集團(tuán)復(fù)星國(guó)際(Fosun International)宣布以近30億美元把旗下意外保險(xiǎn)部門(mén)Ironshore出售給美國(guó)保險(xiǎn)商Liberty Mutual。同一周，安邦保險(xiǎn)(Anbang Insurance)的一個(gè)團(tuán)隊(duì)從其位于紐約第五大道的辦公樓出發(fā)，前往首爾安排收購(gòu)韓國(guó)兩家保險(xiǎn)公司的事宜。

These two insurers spent much of last year scouring the world for potential targets and were among the most aggressive purchasers. They provided rescue capital to troubled financial firms in Europe and scooped up real estate and other investments in the US and Asia. They were among the contributors to the $225bn in Chinese offshore acquisitions announced last year, according to data from Dealogic.

去年，這兩家保險(xiǎn)公司都花了很多時(shí)間在世界各地物色潛在收購(gòu)目標(biāo)，也都躋身于收購(gòu)胃口最大的買(mǎi)家之列。他們?yōu)闅W洲陷入困境的金融公司提供了救援資金，并在美國(guó)和亞洲買(mǎi)入了房地產(chǎn)和其他投資。根據(jù)Dealogic的數(shù)據(jù)，他們是去年宣布的2250億美元中資海外收購(gòu)的重大貢獻(xiàn)者。

But a combination of strictures from mainland regulators and internal pressures from within for many firms, including Anbang and Fosun, may mean that China’s voracious appetite for overseas assets is about to be curbed.

但是，來(lái)自國(guó)內(nèi)監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)的束縛，加上許多公司(包括安邦和復(fù)星)的內(nèi)部壓力，可能意味著中國(guó)對(duì)海外資產(chǎn)的旺盛胃口即將被遏制。

Regulators now say that any deal with a price tag of more than $5m needs approval; while big strategic acquisitions are likely to receive the nod acquisitions of noncore assets, such as real estate, are not. Meanwhile, the slide in the renminbi, which makes diversification offshore more attractive, also makes deals increasingly expensive.

如今監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)表示，規(guī)模超過(guò)500萬(wàn)美元的任何交易都需要批準(zhǔn);大型戰(zhàn)略性的收購(gòu)很可能得到放行，而對(duì)房地產(chǎn)等非核心資產(chǎn)的收購(gòu)可能通不過(guò)。另一方面，人民幣的貶值在使海外多元化變得更具吸引力的同時(shí)，也使交易越來(lái)越昂貴。

The shift away from acquisitions is likely to be particularly pronounced among Chinese insurers, and that will have an impact beyond China. Not only have the country’s insurers been among the highest (or only) bidders for some global assets, they are also an important source of funds for major pools of money outside China.

收購(gòu)止步的趨勢(shì)很可能在中國(guó)保險(xiǎn)企業(yè)身上表現(xiàn)得尤為明顯，而其影響將波及中國(guó)以外。中國(guó)保險(xiǎn)商近年不僅躋身于某些全球資產(chǎn)的出價(jià)最高(或者唯一的)投標(biāo)者之列，也是中國(guó)境外大型資金池的重要出資來(lái)源。

In the past, for example, mainland insurance companies have written big cheques to private equity firms like Blackstone. They were attracted by promises of double digit returns because it is just as hard for insurers in China as elsewhere to earn the big returns their clients want.

例如，過(guò)去中國(guó)保險(xiǎn)公司曾向黑石(Blackstone)等私人股本公司開(kāi)出大額支票。它們被兩位數(shù)回報(bào)的前景所吸引，因?yàn)樗鼈兣c其他地區(qū)的保險(xiǎn)公司一樣，難以賺到客戶所希望的豐厚回報(bào)。

Until recently, many analysts expected Chinese insurers to increase their offshore activity.

直到最近，許多分析師仍預(yù)計(jì)中國(guó)保險(xiǎn)公司增加其海外交易活動(dòng)。

“More assets are expected to flow overseas as Chinese insurers see a growing need for better returns outside their domestic market,” Boston-based consultancy Cerulli Associates noted in a report just weeks ago.

“由于中國(guó)保險(xiǎn)公司日益需要在本國(guó)市場(chǎng)以外獲得更好的回報(bào)，預(yù)計(jì)更多資產(chǎn)將流向海外，”波士頓咨詢公司Cerulli Associates在幾周前的一份報(bào)告中指出。

“A fall in interest rates will inevitably have an impact on their investment income and will push insurers to deploy assets more efficiently by diversifying their sources of returns, including overseas. Investments in the ‘others’ category — which includes listed and unlisted long-term equity investments, bank wealth management products, trusts, private equity, venture capital, loans and real estate — rose from 23.7 per cent in 2014 to 34.2 per cent in June 2016.”

“利率下降將不可避免地對(duì)它們的投資收入產(chǎn)生影響，并且將推動(dòng)保險(xiǎn)商以更高效率部署資產(chǎn)，實(shí)現(xiàn)回報(bào)來(lái)源多元化，包括海外來(lái)源。‘其他’類別投資——包括上市和非上市公司的長(zhǎng)期股權(quán)投資、銀行理財(cái)產(chǎn)品、信托、私募股權(quán)、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資、貸款和房地產(chǎn)——已從2014年的23.7%上升到2016年6月的34.2%。”

Fitch Ratings, meanwhile, is worried about the overall health of Chinese insurers, which have largely been overlooked amid concerns about the country’s banks. Its analysts noted that “the insurers have shifted to investing in riskier assets to sustain investment yields. This makes their credit profiles more vulnerable to unfavourable capital market fluctuations and potential credit-quality deteriorations amid an economic slowdown”.

與此同時(shí)，惠譽(yù)評(píng)級(jí)(Fitch Ratings)對(duì)中國(guó)保險(xiǎn)行業(yè)的整體健康感到擔(dān)心，在各方擔(dān)憂中國(guó)銀行業(yè)之際，保險(xiǎn)公司在很大程度上被忽視了。惠譽(yù)分析師指出，“保險(xiǎn)公司已轉(zhuǎn)而投資于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)更高的資產(chǎn)，以維持投資收益率。這使得它們的信用狀況更容易受到資本市場(chǎng)負(fù)面波動(dòng)、以及經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩時(shí)信用質(zhì)量可能惡化的沖擊”。

Fosun, which is listed in Hong Kong, is starting to respond to investor concerns that it has too much leverage. Moody’s analysts see the sale of Ironshore, which the company bought in 2015, as one clear example.

在香港上市的復(fù)星開(kāi)始回應(yīng)投資者對(duì)其杠桿過(guò)高的擔(dān)憂。穆迪(Moody's)的分析師們把復(fù)星賣掉其在2015年收購(gòu)的Ironshore視為一個(gè)清楚的例子。

“Fosun slowed its pace of overseas expansion in 2016 and management has indicated its commitment to improve the company’s financial profile and focus on integrating previously acquired businesses,” the analysts noted. “The cash proceeds . . . will help improve its weak liquidity profile.”

“復(fù)星在2016年放慢了海外擴(kuò)張的步伐，其管理層表示將致力于改善公司的財(cái)務(wù)狀況，并專注于整合以前收購(gòu)的業(yè)務(wù)，”這些分析師指出。“(出售資產(chǎn)的)現(xiàn)金所得……將有助于改善其流動(dòng)性較弱的狀況。”

Anbang, which does not have an offshore equity listing, has not sold any large overseas assets so far. People briefed on its plans said it would probably not proceed with an international bond offer after US rating agencies suggested that it was likely to receive a non-investment grade rating.

未在海外上市的安邦，迄今沒(méi)有出售任何大型海外資產(chǎn)。聽(tīng)取了該公司計(jì)劃簡(jiǎn)報(bào)的人士表示，在美國(guó)評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)暗示安邦可能獲得非投資級(jí)評(píng)級(jí)后，該公司很可能不會(huì)到國(guó)際市場(chǎng)上發(fā)行債券。

Without easy access to offshore funds, and facing tighter rules at home, Anbang may also have trouble finding the financing it needs to complete some of the overseas acquisitions it has already agreed. That in turn would crimp its ability to buy more.

如果不能方便地獲得離岸基金，同時(shí)在國(guó)內(nèi)面臨更嚴(yán)格的規(guī)則，安邦甚至可能難以找到完成一些已達(dá)成的海外收購(gòu)所需要的融資。這進(jìn)而會(huì)削弱安邦收購(gòu)更多資產(chǎn)的能力。

In recent years, bankers with assets to sell have often counted on bidders from China to help push up the price. With commodity prices subdued, and the US focused inward, it is not clear who will take their place.

近年來(lái)，有資產(chǎn)代售的銀行家經(jīng)常指望來(lái)自中國(guó)的競(jìng)標(biāo)企業(yè)幫助推高價(jià)格。鑒于大宗商品價(jià)格較低，同時(shí)美國(guó)把目光轉(zhuǎn)向國(guó)內(nèi)，尚不清楚誰(shuí)將取代它們的地位。