倫敦高端房地產(chǎn)市場有所復蘇

House price cuts and the fall in the value of the pound are breathing life back into the prime London property market, with the number of homes under offer at its highest since before the EU referendum.

房價下跌以及英鎊走軟正使倫敦高端房地產(chǎn)市場恢復生機，目前掛牌出售的房產(chǎn)數(shù)量處于退歐公投以來的最高水平。

After slumping in 2016 to levels less than half of those the previous year, the number of offers in prime districts such as Chelsea and Belgravia rose in January to just 4.5 per cent below the level a year ago, according to LonRes, a data firm.

數(shù)據(jù)研究公司LonRes表示，在2016年下滑至不足前一年一半的水平后，1月份切爾西(Chelsea)和貝爾格拉維亞(Belgravia)等高端區(qū)域的房屋掛牌數(shù)量增至僅比一年前低4.5%的水平。

“This is one indicator of the market over the next few months,” said Marcus Dixon, head of research at LonRes. “People who are serious about selling have realised they need to be more competitive with their pricing, and to entertain lower offers.

“這是未來數(shù)月市場走向的風向標，”LonRes研究主管馬庫斯•狄克遜(Marcus Dixon)表示，“確實想出售房產(chǎn)的人意識到，他們需要在價格上更具競爭力，并且接受更低的報價。”

“There is also the currency play, particularly at the upper end. Sterling has fallen by 16 per cent since the Brexit vote on June 23. Combining these factors could lead to a total discount of 30 to 40 per cent for buyers compared with the top of the market”, said Mr Dixon.

“其中還有匯率的作用，特別是在高端市場。自6月23日英國退歐公投以來，英鎊匯率已經(jīng)下跌了16%。這些因素加在一起，可能導致價格與市場最高水平相比降低了30%至40%，”狄克遜表示。

Properties in leafy central London areas that typically cost millions of pounds are now selling at an average discount of 10.8 per cent to the asking price, according to LonRes. Asking prices underwent a wave of discounting after the EU referendum.

據(jù)LonRes稱，在綠樹成蔭的倫敦市中心，售價往往達數(shù)百萬英鎊的房產(chǎn)如今的售價平均比要價低10.8%。在英國退歐公投后，要價已經(jīng)經(jīng)歷了一輪下調(diào)。

About half of buyers in these areas are from overseas, meaning those converting their funds from other major currencies will also benefit from sterling’s decline since the vote.

該區(qū)域的買家中約有一半來自海外，這意味著把資金從其他主要貨幣兌換為英鎊的買家還將受益于自退歐公投以來的英鎊下滑。

“It’s an interesting market. Turnover is right down and there’s not much around [for sale], so with people trying to buy, there is some upward pressure on prices,” said Charlie Ellingworth, founder of the buying agency Property Vision.

“這是個有意思的市場。成交量直線下降，沒有多少房產(chǎn)(待售)，因此在有人想買房的情況下，價格存在一些上行壓力，”買方中介Property Vision的創(chuàng)始人查利•埃林沃思(Charlie Ellingworth)表示。

“Prices are firming up, although they are still considerably off since the top of the market. Where [a home] is good, there is competition — if something looks like a bargain, people will go for it.”

“價格正在企穩(wěn)回升，盡管與市場最高點仍然相距甚遠。如果(房子)很好，就會有人爭著買——如果看起來像是物美價廉的交易，人們會爭先恐后。”

London’s high-end property market has been declining for two years, partly thanks to changes to stamp duty that first increased the tax on expensive homes and then added an extra 3 per cent for second and additional properties. Prices had previously seen three years of strong growth.

近兩年，倫敦的高端房地產(chǎn)市場處于下滑之中，這部分是由于印花稅的變化——先是對豪宅提高稅率、之后對二套及以上的房產(chǎn)再加征3%的稅。此前倫敦房地產(chǎn)市場價格經(jīng)歷了三年的強勢增長。

Transaction levels are now 17 per cent below those a year ago, with prices per square foot some 4 per cent lower, LonRes said. But the transaction figures a year ago partly reflect a rush to buy ahead of the latest stamp duty changes.

LonRes表示，如今的交易水平較一年前減少了17%，每平方英尺的價格降低了4%左右。但一年前的交易數(shù)據(jù)部分反映了在最新印花稅調(diào)整前的那輪購房潮。

That still leaves prices for the most expensive postcodes — within Mayfair, Kensington, Chelsea, Belgravia and Knightsbridge — at an average of £2.1m for flats and £5.6m for houses.

盡管如此，倫敦房價最昂貴的地區(qū)——梅費爾區(qū)(Mayfair)、肯辛頓(Kensington)、切爾西、貝爾格拉維亞和騎士橋(Knightsbridge)——平均每套公寓的價格仍然處于210萬英鎊，平均每套獨棟住宅的價格為560萬英鎊。

Agents’ forecasts for prime prices remain subdued. Savills, for example, predicts two years of flat prices in 2017 and 2018, with higher stamp duty rates and uncertainty over Brexit preventing growth. “If there is a potential revival, it will be in transaction volumes rather than in prices,” said Mr Dixon.

房地產(chǎn)中介預計，高端房產(chǎn)價格仍將受到抑制。例如，第一太平戴維斯(Savills)預計，由于印花稅提高以及英國退歐的不確定性抑制增長，2017年和2018年的價格將走平。“如果有可能復蘇的話，將是交易量復蘇、而非價格回升，”狄克遜表示。

The land market has also been adjusting: prices for prime central London development land dropped by 11.5 per cent in 2016, according to Knight Frank.

土地市場也正處于調(diào)整之中：萊坊(Knight Frank)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2016年倫敦中心高端開發(fā)用地的價格下跌11.5%。

Other unknowns facing the market include the impact of capital controls in China intended to limit investment in overseas real estate. Charles McDowell, a Knightsbridge agent, said the controls were “without doubt an issue and a concern for Chinese buyers of London property and it remains to see whether the negative impact continues through the next few months”.

倫敦房地產(chǎn)市場面臨的其他未知因素包括，為了限制海外房地產(chǎn)投資的中國資本管控的影響。位于騎士橋區(qū)的房地產(chǎn)中介查爾斯麥克道爾(Charles McDowell)表示，資本管控“無疑是個問題，是購買倫敦房產(chǎn)的中國買家所關注的問題，未來數(shù)月負面影響是否會持續(xù)仍有待觀察”。