短線觀點(diǎn)：中國(guó)試圖控制債市

In China, it isn’t so much what is said but who says it. Few market followers can have been surprised by a warning that China’s rising leverage poses risks. But this one came from Li Keqiang, China’s premier, to the National People’s Congress. The impression left by the Chinese premier was that Beijing’s emphasis is now on controlling risks — deleveraging in other words — as much as growth. China’s fast-evolving bond markets are already reflecting this shift.

在中國(guó)，比說(shuō)了什么更重要的是誰(shuí)在開口說(shuō)。沒(méi)什么市場(chǎng)觀察人士會(huì)對(duì)中國(guó)不斷上升的杠桿帶來(lái)各種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)這一警告感到意外。但這一次是中國(guó)總理李克強(qiáng)在向全國(guó)人大會(huì)議講話時(shí)發(fā)出的警告。中國(guó)總理給人留下的印象是，北京方面現(xiàn)在的重點(diǎn)是增長(zhǎng)和控制風(fēng)險(xiǎn)(換句話說(shuō)就是去杠桿)并重。中國(guó)快速演變的債券市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)在反映這種轉(zhuǎn)變。

Borrowing costs in China have been rising rapidly, and in some cases faster than US rates. Yields on two-year government bonds have jumped 42 basis points this year, compared with 11bp in the US. And there is almost a full percentage point gap between yields on Chinese 10-year bonds and their US counterparts, which is double the gap three months ago. Largely as a result of higher rates at home, mainland companies have for the first time ever issued more bonds overseas than domestically in the first two months of this year.

近來(lái)中國(guó)的借款成本在快速上升，在某些情況下比美國(guó)的加息步伐更快。兩年期政府債券的收益率今年以來(lái)上漲了42個(gè)基點(diǎn)，遠(yuǎn)高于美國(guó)國(guó)債的11個(gè)基點(diǎn)。中國(guó)10年期國(guó)債與美國(guó)10年期國(guó)債的收益率幾乎相差整整一個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，是三個(gè)月前收益率之差的兩倍。今年頭兩個(gè)月首次出現(xiàn)了中國(guó)企業(yè)在海外債券發(fā)行量超過(guò)國(guó)內(nèi)的情況，主要原因就是國(guó)內(nèi)利率較高。

The driver for these moves can be found in China’s short-term money markets, where the central bank has been broadening the range of its operations. A year ago the People’s Bank of China fine-tuned its influence by starting daily liquidity operations. Last month it raised short-term repo rates for the first time since 2013 and lifted longer-term money market rates for the first time since their creation in 2014. The net effect is a tightening without resorting to the blunt instrument of raising headline interest rates and risking an economic slowdown. Hence monetary policy can still be described officially as “neutral”.

這些舉動(dòng)的驅(qū)動(dòng)力可在中國(guó)的短期貨幣市場(chǎng)中找到，在這里，中國(guó)央行正在拓寬其操作范圍。一年前，中國(guó)人民銀行(PBoC)開始通過(guò)每日流動(dòng)性操作來(lái)微調(diào)其影響力。上月，它自2013年以來(lái)首次提高短期回購(gòu)利率，同時(shí)提升較長(zhǎng)期貨幣市場(chǎng)利率(這是此類利率自2014年創(chuàng)建以來(lái)的首次)。這些操作的凈效應(yīng)是收緊流動(dòng)性，同時(shí)無(wú)需付諸提升整體利率之類的生硬工具，然后承受經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。因此，貨幣政策仍然可以被堂而皇之地形容為“中性”。

Any direct transmission of policy from lifting short-term rates to longer-term ones is not a given in China, where markets are expanding rapidly but not all at the same pace in terms of either size or sophistication. Onshore bond markets grew 32 per cent last year to Rmb64tn ($9.3tn). That is huge by any standards. But the problem for investors is reading that expanded market amid figuring out what the PBoC wants to achieve. For all its increased involvement, it does not target a single rate as its peers do. Amid the guesswork one thing remains clear: with lending reaching a new record in January, Mr Li and the PBoC still have some way to go in their risk-controlling efforts.

在中國(guó)，政策從短期利率向較長(zhǎng)期利率的任何直接傳遞都不是一件板上釘釘?shù)氖虑?中國(guó)的各個(gè)市場(chǎng)都在快速擴(kuò)大，但在規(guī)?；蛳冗M(jìn)程度方面步伐各有不同。在岸債券市場(chǎng)去年增長(zhǎng)32%，達(dá)到64萬(wàn)億元人民幣(合9.3萬(wàn)億美元)。無(wú)論按照什么標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，這都是巨大的。但投資者的問(wèn)題在于，如何在揣摩中國(guó)央行想要實(shí)現(xiàn)什么目標(biāo)的大背景下，解讀市場(chǎng)的擴(kuò)大?因?yàn)楸M管中國(guó)央行加大了參與，但它并不像其它國(guó)家的央行那樣，設(shè)定一個(gè)單一的目標(biāo)利率。在所有猜測(cè)中，有一件事情仍是清楚的：在1月新增貸款創(chuàng)下新紀(jì)錄的情況下，李克強(qiáng)和中國(guó)央行在他們的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制努力方面還有一段路要走。