Lex專欄：神華能源誘人嗎？

A healthy canary meant a healthy mine in the old days. Strong 2016 results from China Shenhua Energy might equally suggest the country’s coal industry is in good shape. The largest-listed coal supplier by sales registered its first net profit growth in four years. On Monday, the shares rose as much as 20 per cent on news of a special dividend. The euphoria may not last.

一只健康的金絲雀在過(guò)去意味著一座富礦。中國(guó)神華能源(China Shenhua Energy) 2016年的強(qiáng)勁業(yè)績(jī)可能同樣表明中國(guó)煤炭行業(yè)狀況良好。按銷售額計(jì)算為最大上市煤炭供應(yīng)商的神華能源4年來(lái)首次實(shí)現(xiàn)凈利潤(rùn)增長(zhǎng)。周一，其派發(fā)特別股息的消息使股價(jià)飆漲，最多達(dá)20%。這種欣快感可能不會(huì)持續(xù)。

As with many industrial groups, Shenhua’s recovery has been state led. Last year, in order to improve coal prices and lighten debt servicing burdens on producers, regulators restricted production. The measure was successful — too much so, in fact. From first half lows, coal prices nearly doubled to November highs. Fretting over soaring prices and potential winter shortages, regulators relaxed output curbs. Prices eased until reports of new restrictions last month.

與許多工業(yè)集團(tuán)一樣，神華的復(fù)蘇是由國(guó)家主導(dǎo)的。去年，為了支持煤炭?jī)r(jià)格和減輕生產(chǎn)企業(yè)的償債負(fù)擔(dān)，監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)限制了生產(chǎn)。這一措施是成功的，事實(shí)上過(guò)于成功了。從上半年的低點(diǎn)至11月的高點(diǎn)，煤炭?jī)r(jià)格近乎翻番。由于擔(dān)憂價(jià)格飆升和冬季出現(xiàn)短缺，監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)放松了生產(chǎn)限制。煤價(jià)隨即下降——直到上月有關(guān)新限制措施的消息出爐。

This flip-flopping is typical of China’s government and reflects prevailing policy skews. Higher prices may appear good for ailing coal miners but they do not function in isolation. The knock-on effects for energy supply and pricing are politically awkward.

這種翻轉(zhuǎn)是中國(guó)政府部門的典型特征，反映當(dāng)前的政策側(cè)重點(diǎn)。較高的價(jià)格可能對(duì)經(jīng)營(yíng)不佳的煤礦企業(yè)有利，但它們并不孤立發(fā)揮作用。在能源供應(yīng)和定價(jià)方面產(chǎn)生的連鎖效應(yīng)在政治上是尷尬的。

In any event, the supply side tinkering is insufficient to support coal prices in the long run. Fitch Ratings notes that in the first eight months of 2016, 152m tonnes of excess coal capacity were cut, compared with 800m tonnes under construction and another 600m tonnes seeking approval. Meanwhile, Carbon Tracker Initiative says the demand outlook is no healthier. Utilisation of China’s coal-fired energy capacity is only 50 per cent. Planned capacity increases of three quarters do not bode well as consumption growth slows from 10 to 3 per cent per year. More efficient generation from existing plants and increases in other sources of power add to the woe.

無(wú)論如何，供給側(cè)的小修小補(bǔ)不足以在長(zhǎng)期支持煤炭?jī)r(jià)格。惠譽(yù)評(píng)級(jí)(Fitch Ratings)指出，2016年前8個(gè)月，1.5億噸過(guò)剩煤炭產(chǎn)能被淘汰，相比之下，8億噸煤炭產(chǎn)能正在建設(shè)中，還有另外6億噸產(chǎn)能正在等待審批。與此同時(shí)，碳追蹤計(jì)劃(Carbon Tracker Initiative)表示，需求前景也健康不到哪里去。中國(guó)燃煤能源產(chǎn)能利用率僅為50%。隨著消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)從每年10%減緩至3%，計(jì)劃中產(chǎn)能增長(zhǎng)四分之三不是一個(gè)好兆頭。現(xiàn)有電廠提高發(fā)電效率和其他發(fā)電來(lái)源增加發(fā)電量，都在加劇這種困境。

Shenhua’s shares may look cheap at 12 times 2018 forecast earnings. But this is pricey versus a five-year average of nine times. That canary may be chirping merrily now. Expect it to develop a nasty cough later on.

神華的股價(jià)看起來(lái)可能很便宜，只是2018年預(yù)測(cè)盈利的12倍，但與五年平均的9倍相比仍是偏貴的。這只金絲雀現(xiàn)在可能在快樂(lè)地啁啾。預(yù)計(jì)它在未來(lái)某時(shí)會(huì)發(fā)出討厭的咳嗽吧。