馬克龍、勒龐與民族主義的局限

The first round of the French presidential election has confirmed the new trend in international politics.

法國(guó)總統(tǒng)大選第一輪投票確認(rèn)了國(guó)際政治中的一種新趨勢(shì)。

In country after country, the most important political division is no longer between left and right — but between nationalist and internationalist.

在一個(gè)又一個(gè)國(guó)家，最重要的政治分界不再處于左翼與右翼之間，而是處于民族主義者與國(guó)際主義者之間。

The breakthrough year for the nationalists was 2016 — with Brexit in Britain and victory for Donald Trump in the US. But the French election suggests that France and most of continental Europe will stay on the internationalist side of the line.

對(duì)民族主義者而言，2016年是突破性的一年——英國(guó)公投決定退出歐盟，唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)贏得美國(guó)總統(tǒng)大選。但法國(guó)大選表明，法國(guó)以及歐洲大陸大部分國(guó)家將繼續(xù)留在國(guó)際主義那一邊。

The contest between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron in the final round of the election on May 7 will be a classic contest between a nationalist and an internationalist. Ms Le Pen wants to pull France out of the European single currency, raise tariffs, strengthen frontier controls and crack down on immigration. Mr Macron is a fervent supporter of the EU and a believer in open trade and a liberal attitude to refugees.

馬琳•勒龐(Marine Le Pen)與埃馬紐埃爾•馬克龍(Emmanuel Macron)在5月7日大選最后一輪投票中的角逐，將是一位民族主義者與一位國(guó)際主義者之間的經(jīng)典對(duì)決。勒龐希望法國(guó)退出歐洲單一貨幣，她想提高關(guān)稅，加強(qiáng)邊境管制，打擊移民。馬克龍則是歐盟(EU)的熱情支持者，他信奉開(kāi)放貿(mào)易，對(duì)難民持開(kāi)明態(tài)度。

The opinion polls — which accurately predicted that Mr Macron would narrowly beat Ms Le Pen in the first round of voting — now suggest that he will win a decisive victory in the final round of the election on May 7, gaining more than 60 per cent of the vote.

如今，準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測(cè)出馬克龍將在首輪投票中以微弱優(yōu)勢(shì)領(lǐng)先勒龐的民調(diào)顯示，馬克龍將在5月7日大選最后一輪投票中贏得決定性勝利，獲得超過(guò)60%的選票。

Of course, there is plenty that could still go wrong for him over the next two weeks. Ms Le Pen is a skilled television debater. Mr Macron is a wealthy ex- financier and former minister — who is vulnerable to being portrayed as a member of the out-of-touch elite. He could yet be tripped up by a scandal or a faux pas. But the strong likelihood is that the polls will be accurate and that the internationalist candidate, Mr Macron, will win a clear victory.

當(dāng)然，未來(lái)兩周也可能出現(xiàn)很多變數(shù)。勒龐是一名經(jīng)驗(yàn)豐富的電視辯論者。馬克龍?jiān)且幻挥械慕鹑诩?，還擔(dān)任過(guò)內(nèi)閣部長(zhǎng)——他容易被描繪成脫離群眾的精英的一員。他仍有可能因一起丑聞或一次失言而栽跟頭。但很大可能是：民調(diào)是準(zhǔn)確的，信奉國(guó)際主義的候選人馬克龍將大獲全勝。

Because the Macron-Le Pen contest is part of an international ideological struggle, the outcome of the vote in France will be watched with intense interest in the rest of the world. The likely victory of Mr Macron will be greeted with delight in Brussels and Berlin, with disappointment in the Kremlin and the Oval Office — and with mixed feelings in London.

鑒于馬克龍與勒龐之間的對(duì)決已成為國(guó)際意識(shí)形態(tài)斗爭(zhēng)的一部分，世界其他地區(qū)將懷著強(qiáng)烈興趣密切關(guān)注此次法國(guó)大選的投票結(jié)果。如果馬克龍獲勝，布魯塞爾和柏林將感到歡欣鼓舞，而克里姆林宮和白宮將感到失望——倫敦則是喜憂參半。

Ms Le Pen campaigned on similar themes to Mr Trump — although her language was considerably more moderate than that of the US president. (The National Front candidate, for example, has never proposed a Trump-style “Muslim ban” on all Muslims entering the country.) The Le Pen family enthusiastically endorsed Mr Trump for the US presidency; and the US president, in turn, has dropped heavy hints on Twitter that he supports Ms Le Pen in France — and expected her to win. But while Mr Trump himself will be disappointed by a Macron victory — his national security advisers, who hold less eccentric views than their boss, are likely to be relieved.

勒龐的競(jìng)選綱領(lǐng)與特朗普類似——盡管她的言辭比這位美國(guó)總統(tǒng)要溫和得多。(例如，這位國(guó)民陣線(National Front)候選人從未提議特朗普式的、禁止所有穆斯林進(jìn)入本國(guó)的“禁穆令”。)勒龐家族積極支持特朗普擔(dān)任美國(guó)總統(tǒng);特朗普則在Twitter上發(fā)出強(qiáng)烈暗示：他支持勒龐，希望她贏得大選。但是，雖然特朗普本人會(huì)因馬克龍勝選感到失望，但他的國(guó)家安全顧問(wèn)們(觀念不像自己老板那么怪異)可能會(huì)松一口氣。

Russia’s disappointment at a likely Macron victory will be much more straightforward. Mr Macron was the only leading candidate in the first round of voting to support a tough line against Putin’s Russia. A Russian bank has also lent heavily to Le Pen’s National Front — possibly as part of the Kremlin’s investment in disarray in the EU.

俄羅斯對(duì)馬克龍可能勝選的失望將更直截了當(dāng)。馬克龍是首輪投票中唯一支持對(duì)普京(Putin)治下的俄羅斯實(shí)施強(qiáng)硬路線的領(lǐng)先候選人。俄羅斯一家銀行還大舉放貸給勒龐的國(guó)民陣線——可能是作為克里姆林宮投資歐盟亂局的一部分。

The British reaction to a Macron victory will be a mixture of relief and apprehension. The government of Theresa May resists the characterisation of Brexit as a nationalist spasm — and emphasises the UK’s continuing support for free trade and a strong EU. But the problem for Britain is that the EU itself clearly sees Brexit as a manifestation of nationalism within Europe that needs to be dealt with very firmly.

英國(guó)對(duì)馬克龍勝選的反應(yīng)將是喜憂參半。特里薩•梅(Theresa May)政府反對(duì)將英國(guó)退歐比作一次民族主義發(fā)作，強(qiáng)調(diào)英國(guó)將繼續(xù)支持自由貿(mào)易以及強(qiáng)有力的歐盟。但英國(guó)面臨的問(wèn)題是，歐盟自身顯然已將英國(guó)退歐視為歐洲內(nèi)部民族主義的一次體現(xiàn)，需要以非常堅(jiān)決的態(tài)度加以應(yīng)對(duì)。

In that sense, a likely Macron victory is both good and bad news for the UK. Mr Macron represents the strong and united EU that the May government claims to want. The difficulty from London’s point of view is that this strength and unity is likely to be expressed through a very tough line on Brexit — with a demand for a large, financial settlement from Britain and a resistance to any special deals for the UK, whether on free movement of people or financial services. A Le Pen victory, by contrast, would take Europe in new and dangerous directions — but could help to ease the narrow problem of Brexit, since there might no longer be an EU left to leave.

在這個(gè)意義上，馬克龍獲勝(目前看來(lái)可能性很大)對(duì)英國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō)既是好消息也是壞消息。馬克龍代表了強(qiáng)大和統(tǒng)一的歐盟，一個(gè)梅政府聲稱想要的歐盟。從倫敦的角度來(lái)看，難處在于這種強(qiáng)大和統(tǒng)一很可能表現(xiàn)為對(duì)英國(guó)退歐持非常強(qiáng)硬的立場(chǎng)，要求英國(guó)支付高額“分手費(fèi)”，抵制為英國(guó)安排的任何特殊協(xié)議，無(wú)論是關(guān)于人員自由流動(dòng)還是金融服務(wù)的。相反，勒龐若獲勝，將讓歐洲轉(zhuǎn)向新的危險(xiǎn)方向，但可以幫助緩解英國(guó)退歐的小問(wèn)題——因?yàn)闅W盟本身可能都不復(fù)存在。

In the wider European context, Mr Macron’s likely victory has to be seen in the context of setbacks for the nationalist right in recent elections in Austria and the Netherlands and their declining fortunes in Germany — where the populist Alternative for Germany party is falling back into single digits in opinion polls. A fresh mandate for Angela Merkel in September’s German elections looks ever more likely. Nationalist parties have taken power in Poland and Hungary — but the original core of the EU is resisting the nationalist tide.

在更廣泛的歐洲背景下，馬克龍的可能獲勝必須放在如下背景中來(lái)看：民族主義右派最近在奧地利和荷蘭的選舉中遇挫，以及他們?cè)诘聡?guó)的衰落命運(yùn)——德國(guó)的民粹主義政黨，德國(guó)另類選擇黨(Alternative for Germany)在民調(diào)中的支持率正跌回個(gè)位數(shù)。安格拉•默克爾(Angela Merkel)在德國(guó)9月大選中獲得連任的可能性看上去更大了。民族主義政黨雖然在波蘭和匈牙掌握得了政權(quán)，但歐盟的創(chuàng)始核心成員仍在抵制著民族主義潮流。

In Brussels, the prospect of a Macron victory will be greeted as an opportunity to restart the Franco-German motor that has traditionally powered the EU. But euphoria would be misplaced. When it comes to economic reform and European integration, Mr Macron says all the “right” things. Whether he can actually deliver them is another matter. Breaking France out of a cycle of low growth, high unemployment and rising debt has proved beyond a succession of ostensibly reformist presidents — including Jacques Chirac, Nicolas Sarkozy and even the current president, François Hollande. Mr Hollande failed despite appointing a dynamic young economy minister named Emmanuel Macron. Whatever happened to him?

布魯塞爾方面，馬克龍的獲勝前景將被視作重啟法德“發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)”——歐盟的傳統(tǒng)動(dòng)力來(lái)源——的機(jī)會(huì)而受到歡迎。但這種興高采烈是一廂情愿的。每每談到經(jīng)濟(jì)改革和歐洲一體化，馬克龍滿口都是“正確”的事情。至于他是否真的能實(shí)現(xiàn)，那是另一問(wèn)題。事實(shí)上，一連串看上去主張改革的總統(tǒng)，包括雅克•希拉克(Jacques Chirac)、尼古拉•薩科齊(Nicolas Sarkozy)，甚至現(xiàn)任總統(tǒng)弗朗索瓦•奧朗德(François Hollande)，都沒(méi)能讓法國(guó)走出低增長(zhǎng)率、高失業(yè)率和債務(wù)不斷上漲的循環(huán)。奧朗德雖然任命了一位年輕的充滿活力的經(jīng)濟(jì)部長(zhǎng)，卻依然失敗了，這位經(jīng)濟(jì)部長(zhǎng)叫埃馬紐埃爾•馬克龍。他到底經(jīng)歷了什么?