微信用戶接近10億但增速趨緩

WeChat, China’s most popularsocial media app, is fast approaching 1bn users — but analysts say growth is likely to taper sharply as the company strives to deliver on global ambitions.

中國(guó)最受歡迎的社交媒體應(yīng)用微信(WeChat)的用戶數(shù)量正快速接近10億，但分析師們表示，隨著該公司努力實(shí)現(xiàn)全球雄心，其增速可能會(huì)大幅放緩。

Numbers released this month as part of quarterlyearnings from parent Tencent showed that WeChat — which is called Weixin in China — had 963m monthly active users (MAUs) by the end of June. That was up 19.5 per cent year-on-year and 2.7 per cent on a quarterly basis, but the annual rate was a deceleration from 28 per cent at the end of 2016.

騰訊(Tencent)季度盈利報(bào)告公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，截至6月底，微信月活躍用戶為9.63億，同比增長(zhǎng)19.5%，較前一季度增長(zhǎng)2.7%。但年度增速較2016年底的28%有所下滑。China Channel創(chuàng)始人馬修•布倫南(Matthew Brennan)表示：“這說(shuō)明，它現(xiàn)在確實(shí)在觸頂。我認(rèn)為，它將達(dá)到10億，但不會(huì)超過(guò)太多。”自2011年微信問(wèn)世以來(lái)，他一直在跟蹤微信的發(fā)展。

“That shows you it’s really topping out now. I think it will hit 1bn but not much beyond that,” said Matthew Brennan, founder of China Channel, who has been following WeChat since its launch in 2011.

弘亞世代(Pacific Epoch)分析師Canaan Guo預(yù)測(cè)，未來(lái)3到5年，年度復(fù)合增速將達(dá)到4%，他還預(yù)測(cè)，微信的國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)最終將涵蓋中國(guó)幾乎全部14億人口，不過(guò)，他補(bǔ)充稱，這可能需要20年或更長(zhǎng)時(shí)間。

Canaan Guo, analyst at Pacific Epoch, projects a compound annual growth rate of 4 per cent over the next three to five years and forecasts that WeChat’s domestic market ultimately will comprise virtually the entire 1.4bn Chinese population — though it could take 20 years or more to get there, he adds.

“微信現(xiàn)在的情況是……他們?cè)诤芏喾矫嫣幱谑貏?shì)，”布倫南表示，“因?yàn)檫@個(gè)平臺(tái)已非常成熟，容易摘取的果實(shí)已不多。”

“WeChat is in a space where . . . they are in many ways on the defensive,” said Mr Brennan. “Because the platform is very mature they have run out of low-hanging fruit.”

騰訊最初的即時(shí)通信平臺(tái)QQ的用戶數(shù)量已開(kāi)始減少。在最新季度，QQ的月活躍用戶減少5.4%，至8.50億，而前一季度減少了2.2%。

Tencent’s QQ, the Chinese internet company’s original instant messaging platform, has already begun.

一些分析師將此歸咎于QQ的較年輕用戶轉(zhuǎn)向微信，這與西方的趨勢(shì)相反，在西方，年輕人正從Facebook轉(zhuǎn)向其照片分享應(yīng)用Instagram和Snap的Snapchat，這兩款應(yīng)用對(duì)較年輕用戶更具吸引力。