香港股市呈現(xiàn)A股特點(diǎn)

When China’s vice-minister of industry said this month that Beijing was considering setting a deadline to ban sales of fossil fuel-powered cars, most auto industry experts did not overreact. The official did not offer any timetable, and rich countries such as Britain and France have set distant deadlines of 2040.

當(dāng)中國(guó)工信部副部長(zhǎng)本月表示北京正在考慮制定傳統(tǒng)燃油車禁售時(shí)間表時(shí)，多數(shù)汽車業(yè)專家都沒有作出過度反應(yīng)。這名官員并沒有給出具體時(shí)間表，而英國(guó)、法國(guó)等富裕國(guó)家已經(jīng)制定了2040年的遙遠(yuǎn)最后期限。

Judging by the market reaction in Hong Kong, however, investors could be forgiven for thinking the statement was a bombshell. Shares in BYD, China’s largest producer of electric vehicles, surged to a record that day and are up more than 60 per cent this month.

不過根據(jù)香港市場(chǎng)的反應(yīng)，無怪乎投資者覺得上述聲明是個(gè)爆炸性消息。中國(guó)最大的電動(dòng)汽車生產(chǎn)商比亞迪(BYD)的股價(jià)在當(dāng)天飆升至新高，本月漲幅超過60%。

After BYD’s chairman speculated China’s deadline could be 2030 — in what experts said was more of a lobbying effort than a prediction — shares in the group’s separately listed mobile-handset unit also hit a record, despite the fact the company is not even involved in cars.

隨著比亞迪董事長(zhǎng)猜測(cè)中國(guó)的最后期限可能是2030年——專家表示這更多是一個(gè)游說行為而不是一個(gè)預(yù)測(cè)——該集團(tuán)旗下另一家上市手機(jī)公司的股價(jià)也創(chuàng)下紀(jì)錄，盡管該公司甚至不涉及汽車行業(yè)。

Speculative zeal for BYD is an example of what many investors say is the increasing influence of mainland investors in Hong Kong’s market. The opening of the Hong Kong-Shanghai Stock Connect in late 2014, which was followed by the launch of the companion Shenzhen Connect in November 2016, granted mainland punters unprecedented access to the territory’s market.

市場(chǎng)對(duì)比亞迪的投機(jī)熱情是一個(gè)例證，證明了許多投資者所說的內(nèi)地投資者對(duì)香港市場(chǎng)的影響力日益增加。2014年底開通的滬港通讓內(nèi)地投資者得以以前所未有的方式進(jìn)入香港市場(chǎng)，隨后2016年11月又推出了深港通。

“It is very much the case that HK’s market is becoming more like China’s and not the other way around,” says Howard Ho, Asian equities analyst at Maple Brown Abbott, a Sydney-based investment manager.

總部位于悉尼的投資管理公司Maple-Brown Abbott亞洲股票分析師Howard Ho表示：“實(shí)際上香港市場(chǎng)正變得更像內(nèi)地，而不是反過來。”

Trendy investment storylines such as information technology and clean energy have long driven the popularity of so-called “concept stocks” in the retail-driven Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, home of A shares, as China’s domestically listed stocks are known.

信息科技和清潔能源等熱門投資主題長(zhǎng)期推動(dòng)著所謂的“概念股”在散戶主導(dǎo)的滬深股市的人氣。中國(guó)內(nèi)地上市的股票俗稱A股，在滬深股市交易。

Market watchers say that high valuations for recent Hong Kong initial public offerings such as selfie app Meitu and online insurer ZhongAn Online Property and Casualty Insurance are due in part to the expectation of strong demand from mainland investors.

市場(chǎng)觀察人士表示，近期如自拍應(yīng)用美圖(Meitu)、網(wǎng)絡(luò)保險(xiǎn)公司眾安在線財(cái)產(chǎn)保險(xiǎn)股份有限公司(ZhongAn Online Property and Casualty Insurance)等公司在香港市場(chǎng)首次公開發(fā)行(IPO)之所以有很高的估值，一部分是因?yàn)轭A(yù)期內(nèi)地投資者的強(qiáng)勁需求。

“The big winners this year all show very strong characteristics of momentum trading, which is a hallmark of A-share strategy,” says Hao Hong, head of research for Bocom International in Hong Kong. “Some of these stocks have doubled or even more. Things like this don’t happen very easily in Hong Kong, but they tend to happen with names in the A-share market where there’s a story to go with it. They’re concept stocks.”

香港交銀國(guó)際(Bocom International)研究主管洪灝表示：“今年的大贏家都顯示出極強(qiáng)的動(dòng)量交易特征，這是典型的A股策略。其中部分股票漲了一倍甚至更多。這種事在香港不容易發(fā)生，但在A股市場(chǎng)往往發(fā)生在有故事的股票身上，它們就是概念股。”

Volatility is also increasing. In the 708 trading days since the Shanghai connect was launched, a CES Stock Connect Hong Kong Select 100 Index that tracks 100 Hong Kong shares available to mainland investors through the scheme rose or fell by an average of 0.76 percentage points each day. In the same period before the connect launch, the average change was 0.67 percentage points.

港股的波動(dòng)也在加大。自滬港通啟動(dòng)后的708個(gè)交易日，追蹤內(nèi)地投資者通過該計(jì)劃可購(gòu)買的100只港股的“中華港股通精選100指數(shù)”(CES Hong Kong Select 100 Index)，日均漲跌幅為0.76%。而在滬港通啟動(dòng)前的歷史同期，日均漲跌幅為0.67%。

The extraordinary performance of China real estate shares this year, led by developers China Evergrande and Sunac China, also resembles the wild swings associated with A shares. Sunac is up 391 per cent on the year through Tuesday, while Evergrande has gained 439 per cent. 以中國(guó)恒大(China Evergrande)和融創(chuàng)中國(guó)(Sunac China)為首的中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)股今年的異常表現(xiàn)，也顯示出類似A股的

劇烈波動(dòng)。今年截至周二，融創(chuàng)中國(guó)的股價(jià)已經(jīng)上漲391%，而恒大股價(jià)上漲了439%。

But the same investors who piled in to property shares since the start of the year suddenly reversed course this week, after eight major cities imposed new sales restrictions, as governments seek to curb runaway prices. Sunac sank 8 per cent on Monday, while Evergrande shed 9 per cent.

然而，自今年初紛紛涌入房地產(chǎn)股的那些投資者本周突然改變了策略，因?yàn)榇饲埃诟骷?jí)政府試圖抑制房?jī)r(jià)失控飛漲之際，內(nèi)地8個(gè)主要城市紛紛出臺(tái)了新的限售措施。周一，融創(chuàng)中國(guó)股價(jià)下挫8%，恒大跌掉9%。

“Fund movement between the A-shares and Hong Kong markets has become more convenient, which has led to a blending of the two markets’ different styles to some extent,” says Huang Xiaoming, partner at Preston Asset Management, a Shanghai-based quant fund that invests in both markets. “The Hong Kong market’s short-term volatility and speculative elements have increased.”

易善資產(chǎn)管理有限公司(Preston Asset Management)合伙人黃曉明表示：“A股與港股市場(chǎng)之間的資金流動(dòng)已變得更加便捷，這導(dǎo)致了某種程度上兩大市場(chǎng)之間不同風(fēng)格的融合。港股市場(chǎng)的短期波動(dòng)和投機(jī)因素有所增加。”這家位于上海的量化對(duì)沖基金公司在A股和港股市場(chǎng)都進(jìn)行投資。

For Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng index, annualised volatility — a gauge of how much an asset’s value is likely to move up or down in a year — was 21.5 per cent and 18.5 per cent in 2015 and 2016, respectively, even as the same figures for the MSCI World Index were lower at 15.6 and 15 per cent, according to Preston.

易善資產(chǎn)管理的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2015年和2016年，香港基準(zhǔn)恒生指數(shù)(Hang Seng Index)的年化波動(dòng)率——衡量一項(xiàng)資產(chǎn)的價(jià)值一年內(nèi)可能上漲或下跌多少的指標(biāo)——分別為21.5%和18.5%，而MSCI明晟全球指數(shù)(MSCI World index)同期的年化波動(dòng)率分別為15.6%和15%。

Mainland investors’ share of trading volume in Hong Kong is increasing. Trading through the connect schemes accounted for an average of 11.9 per cent of total turnover this month through September 25, compared with 10.3 per cent on average in the first eight months of this year.

內(nèi)地投資者在港股交易量中的份額正在擴(kuò)大。9月1日至9月25日，通過滬港通、深港通進(jìn)行的交易平均占總交易量的11.9%，而今年前8個(gè)月平均為10.3%。

Mainland investors operating through the connect programme now own at least 10 per cent of 53 Hong Kong-listed shares, according to data from Wind Information. For both Sunac and Great Wall Motor, China’s fifth-largest carmaker by revenue, the figure is 23 per cent.

萬(wàn)得資訊(Wind Information)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，通過滬港通、深港通操作的內(nèi)地投資者，目前持有53只香港上市股票的至少10%份額。對(duì)于融創(chuàng)中國(guó)以及按收入算中國(guó)第五大汽車制造商長(zhǎng)城汽車(Great Wall Motor)來說，這一數(shù)字為23%。

Mr Hong also points out that Hong Kong’s same-day settlement mechanism allows for intraday buying and selling of the same tranche of shares, unlike in the mainland, where settlement occurs after one day. That makes Hong Kong a tempting playground for day traders.

洪灝還指出，香港的T+0交易制度允許在同一天內(nèi)買賣同一只股票，而不像內(nèi)地那樣只能在之后的一個(gè)交易日交割。這使得香港成為對(duì)當(dāng)日交易者頗具誘惑力的市場(chǎng)。