生產(chǎn)率增長低迷拖慢全球復蘇步伐

The global economy is experiencing its broadest and strongest upturn for more than five years, but that improvement is being undermined by weak productivity growth.

全球經(jīng)濟正在經(jīng)歷5年多以來最廣泛、最強勁的復蘇，但這種勢頭正受到生產(chǎn)率增長低迷的阻礙。

An update to a tracking index compiled by the Brookings Institution think-tank and the Financial Times confirms the momentum of the global growth cycle and shows that the outlook for the rest of the year and 2018 remains healthy.

布魯金斯學會(Brookings Institution)和英國《金融時報》(Financial Times)聯(lián)合編制的一項追蹤指標的最新讀數(shù)證實了全球增長周期的勢頭，并表明今年余下時間和2018年的經(jīng)濟前景仍然保持良好。

The index, which covers all significant advanced and developing economies, is at or close to five-year highs on measures of the real economy, confidence and financial conditions.

該指數(shù)覆蓋所有重要的發(fā)達經(jīng)濟體和發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟體，包括實體經(jīng)濟、信心和金融狀況等方面的指標目前都處于或接近于5年高點。

But with global growth rates well below those before the financial crisis that began a decade ago, the results echo concerns that further economic reforms are needed to maintain growth rates and stave off another downturn.

但鑒于全球增長率仍遠低于10年前尚未爆發(fā)金融危機時的水平，這些結(jié)果印證了人們的擔憂，即各國需要開展進一步的經(jīng)濟改革，以維持經(jīng)濟增速并防范下一輪衰退。

In recent weeks the OECD has urged finance ministers and central bankers to use the “window of opportunity” created by the upturn wisely after the economic troubles of the past decade. Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, has urged them not to let a decent recovery “go to waste”.

最近幾周，經(jīng)合組織(OECD)督促各國財政部長和央行行長，在經(jīng)歷了10年的經(jīng)濟困境后，要巧妙地利用經(jīng)濟復蘇創(chuàng)造的“機會窗口”。國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)總裁克里斯蒂娜•拉加德(Christine Lagarde)督促他們不要“白白浪費”這一輪還算強勁的復蘇。

Professor Eswar Prasad, an economics professor at Cornell University and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said that while the recovery was broad based and reasonably strong, “policymakers seem averse to the broader and tougher reforms that may be necessary to kick growth into a higher gear”. He said recovery from the financial crisis was still hampered by “weak productivity and investment growth”.

康奈爾大學(Cornell University)經(jīng)濟學教授、布魯金斯學會高級研究員埃斯瓦爾•普拉薩德(Eswar Prasad)表示，盡管此輪復蘇范圍廣泛且相當強勁，但“政策制定者似乎不愿進行更廣泛、更堅定的改革，而這些改革對于促進經(jīng)濟更快速增長可能是必要的”。他稱，從金融危機中復蘇的步伐仍然受到“生產(chǎn)率和投資增長低迷”的阻礙。

The Brookings-FT Tiger index compares many separate indicators of real activity, financial markets and investor confidence with their historical averages for the global economy and for each country separately. The data suggest growth, financial conditions and confidence has improved in both advanced economies and emerging markets in recent months.

布魯金斯學會/英國《金融時報》“全球經(jīng)濟復蘇追蹤指標”(Tracking Indexes for the Global Economic Recovery，簡稱：TIGER)，把全球經(jīng)濟和各國的實體經(jīng)濟活動、金融市場和投資者信心等多項指標與各自的歷史平均水平分別進行比較。數(shù)據(jù)表明，最近幾個月發(fā)達經(jīng)濟體和發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟體的經(jīng)濟增長、金融狀況和信心都有所改善。

The composite Tiger index is at its highest level since 2012, indicating that economic data, on average, across the world is significantly stronger than it has been at any time in those five years. Confidence is particularly strong in advanced economies. The US picked up after President Donald Trump’s election victory late last year, while confidence has improved in the resurgent eurozone this year.

TIGER綜合指數(shù)目前正處于自2012年以來的最高水平，這表明總體來看世界各地的經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)都顯著強于過去5年內(nèi)任意時間的水平。發(fā)達經(jīng)濟體的投資者信心格外強勁。在去年底唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)贏得美國大選后，美國投資者信心回升，與此同時，在經(jīng)濟復蘇的歐元區(qū)，投資者信心今年也有所提高。

A sharp recovery in commodity exporters, which have repaired much of the damage of the oil price slump that began in 2014, has enabled the emerging economies index of real economic data to improve towards recent highs. Exuberant stock markets have also helped financial conditions remain supportive of growth in the global economy.

大宗商品出口國(已經(jīng)從自2014年開始的油價暴跌的沖擊中恢復了大半)的明顯復蘇，使得新興經(jīng)濟體指數(shù)中的實體經(jīng)濟指標有所提高，朝著近年高點靠近。股市繁榮，也有助于金融狀況繼續(xù)支持全球經(jīng)濟增長。

Although 2017 is likely to show a significant improvement on 2016, there are concerns that the global economy is still not generating a sufficiently strong expansion to raise living standards in many countries and ease some of the financial strains of the past decade.

盡管2017年經(jīng)濟可能較2016年顯著改善，但有些人擔心全球經(jīng)濟擴張仍然不夠強勁，無法使很多國家提高居民生活水平并緩解過去10年的財政壓力。

“The combination of weak productivity and investment growth does not portend well for an increase in growth or even for the sustainability of the current low growth,” Prof Prasad said.

“生產(chǎn)率增長疲弱，加上投資增長低迷，對于經(jīng)濟加快增長、乃至維持當前的低增長都不是好兆頭，”普拉薩德教授表示。

“Policymakers should use the breathing space they have been granted to strengthen the resilience of their economies and policy frameworks to the inevitable next downturn. Otherwise, next time may be no different.”

“政策制定者應該利用目前獲得的喘息空間來加強經(jīng)濟和政策框架的適應能力，以準備好應對下一輪不可避免的衰退。否則，下一次還會是老樣子。”