IMF：當前經濟形勢掩蓋較長期風險

The International Monetary Fund has warned that good times in the global economy mask longer-term risks, including a $135tn debt pile in G20 nations that companies and consumers are already finding difficult to service.

國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)警告稱，當今全球經濟的美好光景掩蓋了更長期的風險，包括20國集團(G20)國家積累的135萬億美元巨額債務。公司和消費者已發(fā)現(xiàn)很難支付這筆債務的利息。

A day after upgrading its global growth forecasts for this year and next the IMF warned on Wednesday that benign economic conditions were fuelling an appetite for risk that, together with central banks’ response to the 2008 global crisis, appeared to be laying the ground for a new financial crunch.

就在上調今明兩年的全球增長預測值一天之后，IMF周三警告稱，良性的經濟狀況正在提高風險偏好，這一點加上各國央行應對2008年全球危機的措施，似乎正為一場新的金融危機奠定基礎。

“While the waters seem calm, vulnerabilities are building under the surface [and] if left unattended, these could derail the global recovery,” said Tobias Adrian, of the IMF’s financial stability watchdog.

“盡管水面看似風平浪靜，但水面以下的脆弱性正在增加，如果不加應對，這些脆弱性可能破壞全球復蘇，”IMF金融穩(wěn)定監(jiān)督部門的托比亞斯•阿德里亞(Tobias Adrian)說。

The good times were breeding “complacency”, he said, that was “spawning financial excesses”.

美好時光正在助長“自滿”，他說，這開始“催生金融過度行為”。

If these continued to build, the IMF said in its latest Global Financial Stability Report, they could lead to a crisis that, were equity prices to tumble 15 per cent and home prices to fall 9 per cent, would cut 1.7 per cent off global output.

IMF在其最新的《全球金融穩(wěn)定報告》(Global Financial Stability Report)中表示，如果這些狀況繼續(xù)發(fā)展，可能會引發(fā)一場危機：假設股價大跌15%，房產價格下降9%，將使全球產出減少1.7%。

Such a crisis would be “broad-based and significant”, though it would be only a third as severe as the 2008 global crisis, the IMF said. The US, where the Fed has ended quantitative easing and is further along the path to normalising monetary policy, would probably be hit less hard than Europe and emerging markets, which would see $100bn in capital outflows.

IMF表示，這樣一場危機將是“涉及面廣和重大的”，盡管其嚴重程度將僅為2008年全球危機的三分之一。在美國，美聯(lián)儲(Fed)已終止了量化寬松，并且在貨幣政策正?；牡缆飞献咴谇懊?，因此美國受到的沖擊將小于歐洲和新興市場，后兩者將遭遇1000億美元的資本外流。

The IMF found cause to worry in the growing non-financial sector debt in G20 economies, which last year reached $135tn, or about 235 per cent of aggregate annual economic output.

IMF發(fā)現(xiàn)，G20經濟體中不斷增加的非金融行業(yè)債務是令人擔憂的。去年這一債務達到135萬億美元，大約相當于這些經濟體年度經濟產出總和的235%。

The US and China each accounted for about a third of the $80tn increase in debt since 2006, the IMF said.

IMF表示，美國和中國分別占到了自2006年以來80萬億美元新增債務的三分之一。

The low interest rates that helped fuel the increase in leverage since the financial crisis had broadly made that debt relatively affordable to repay.

自金融危機以來幫助加大杠桿的低利率，總體上使債務相對容易償還。

But in most G20 countries, companies and households had loaded up on so much debt that the debt service ratios — a measure of affordability — had increased, pointing to greater financial stress. Among the G20 countries where that issue is most acute are Australia, Canada and China, the IMF said.

但在多數(shù)G20國家，公司和家庭已積累了如此高的債務，以至于償債率(debt service ratio)——衡量承受能力的指標——有所升高，指向了更大的金融壓力。IMF表示，這個問題最突出的G20國家是澳大利亞、加拿大和中國。