中國投行不再順風順水

Booming debt markets and extravagant trading fees made China’s investment banks the envy of many global rivals for several years.

過去幾年里，中國紅火的債券市場和高昂的交易費用讓中資投行成為許多全球同行的羨慕對象。

Not any more.

現(xiàn)在，他們不再羨慕了。

Revenues from China’s onshore bond market this year are half their 2016 level, partly because of policies to discourage a dangerous debt build-up.

今年以來中國在岸債券市場產(chǎn)生的收入僅為去年全年收入水平的一半，部分原因在于政府阻止危險的債務(wù)積累的政策。

As a consequence, China banks are losing ground on the global stage, according to an FT analysis covering more than 60 institutions from leaders Bank of China, Citic Securities and Haitong to smaller ones such as Dragon Securities and Hengtai Securities.

因此，根據(jù)英國《金融時報》的一項分析，中國投行在國際舞臺上的分量在下降。這項分析涵蓋60多家機構(gòu)，既有中國銀行(BoC)、中信證券(Citic Securities)和海通證券(Haitong)這樣的市場領(lǐng)導者，也有華龍證券(China Dragon Securities)和恒泰證券(Hengtai Securities)等規(guī)模較小的券商。

After more than trebling from 2013 to 2016, Chinese banks’ share of the world’s investment banking spending fell sharply in the first nine months of 2017, fee data from Dealogic show.

Dealogic的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2013年至2016年期間，中國投行占全球投行業(yè)務(wù)費用的份額擴大了兩倍多，在2017年前三季度則出現(xiàn)大幅下滑。

At the same time, the brokerage fees powering Chinese banks’ sales and trading business — the industry’s largest revenue source — have plummeted after deregulation led to brutal competition.

同時，由于政府放松監(jiān)管引發(fā)了殘酷競爭和費用下降，支撐中國投行銷售與交易業(yè)務(wù)的經(jīng)紀費用——該行業(yè)最大的收入來源——已直線下降。

Trading revenues for 33 mainland-listed investment banks were 27 per cent lower in the first half of 2017 than a year earlier, according to data from Wind Information compiled from exchange filings.

萬得資訊(Wind Information)根據(jù)交易所文件匯編的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2017年上半年，33家在中國內(nèi)地上市的投行的交易收入同比下降了27%。

It is a scenario that would prompt soul-searching and restructuring plans at western banks, where global prestige is highly valued and sharp falls in business areas prompt alarm among shareholders and management alike.

如果是西方投行遇到這種情況，就會趕緊進行反思并制定重組計劃，因為它們非常重視自己的國際名聲，而且業(yè)務(wù)方面的急劇下滑也會引起股東和管理層的不安。

But China bank executives tend to place more emphasis on how they are performing in local markets than they do on global league tables. By that measure, they are doing better.

但是，中國投行高管通常更重視自己在國內(nèi)市場上的表現(xiàn)，不太關(guān)注自己在全球排行榜上的位置。就國內(nèi)來說，它們的表現(xiàn)比較好。

In China’s onshore bond market, they take 95 per cent of the fees, up a touch from previous years, and in China onshore equity capital markets, China banks’ share rose slightly in the first nine months of 2017.

在中國在岸債券市場上，中國投行占據(jù)了費用收入的95%，略高于前幾年;在岸股權(quán)資本市場上，2017年前三季度中國投行的市場份額略微升高。

Chinese investment banks “don’t care about their league tables globally”, says a banker based in Hong Kong who has held roles in two of China’s big investment banks. “They will not play outside the region in any significant way.”

中國投行“不關(guān)心它們在全球范圍的排名情況”，一位曾在兩家中國大型投行擔任高級職務(wù)、如今常駐香港的銀行家表示，“它們不會以很大精力在地區(qū)以外發(fā)展業(yè)務(wù)。”

Chinese bankers are also more sanguine about short-term revenue drops, and expect that the onshore bond market will rebound to its more lucrative past, when yields were lower and companies had more incentive to issue debt.

對于短期的收入下降，中國銀行家也比較樂觀，并預計在岸債市將發(fā)生反彈，回到過去利潤更豐厚的狀態(tài)。過去收益率較低，各公司有更大的發(fā)債動力。

“I believe bond yields in the onshore market have probably peaked,” writes Chen Long, analyst at Gavekal-Dragonomics, a Beijing-based research group. “The financial tightening that drove yields up in the first half is also probably ending as the [macroeconomic] data become weaker.”

“我認為，在岸債券市場的收益率很可能已見頂，” 北京研究集團龍洲經(jīng)訊(GaveKal Dragonomics)的分析師陳龍寫道，“隨著(宏觀經(jīng)濟)數(shù)據(jù)變得更弱，在上半年推高收益率的金融緊縮也很可能會終止。”

In Shanghai, where the big Chinese lenders’ power centres are, and Hong Kong, where their offshore businesses are based, bankers talk of expansion rather than cutbacks.

在中國大型銀行的權(quán)力中心上海和他們的離岸業(yè)務(wù)基地香港，銀行家們談?wù)摰氖菙U張，而不是收縮。

“A focus area for Chinese securities companies is establishing an effective foreign fundraising platform,” says Zhang Jingwei, financial analyst at Northeast Securities in Shanghai.

“中國券商的一個關(guān)注點是建立一個高效的海外融資平臺，”東北證券(Northeast Securities)駐上海金融分析師張經(jīng)緯說。

He projects that mainland groups will then seek to expand their share of Chinese companies’ offshore fundraising. “They’ve also pushed into asset management — either helping foreign clients invest on the mainland or helping domestic clients abroad.”

他預計，內(nèi)地券商將尋求擴大自己在中國企業(yè)離岸融資中的份額。“它們也闖進了資產(chǎn)管理領(lǐng)域——要么幫助海外客戶投資于內(nèi)地，要么幫助國內(nèi)客戶對外投資。”

A debt syndicate director at a Chinese bank based in Hong Kong says his firm is hiring locally and has set up a debt syndicate desk in Singapore. “Most banks have been expanding in the first half of the year in this area,” he says. His group has hired “a few associate directors that once worked at global banks”.

中國一家銀行駐香港的債務(wù)銀團業(yè)務(wù)總監(jiān)表示，他所在公司正在當?shù)卣腥?，并已在新加坡設(shè)立了債務(wù)銀團業(yè)務(wù)。“今年上半年，大多數(shù)銀行都在這個領(lǐng)域拓展業(yè)務(wù)，”他說。他所在公司已聘用了“幾名曾在全球性銀行效力的副總監(jiān)”。

Some China banks have begun pushing into international markets to follow their corporate and private banking clients, and are targeting Chinese and foreign business in some Asian markets.

一些中國投行已開始挺進國際市場，追隨企業(yè)與私人銀行客戶的腳步，并瞄準了部分亞洲市場上的中外企業(yè)。

A spokesperson for Citic, the largest Chinese investment bank by revenues, says the 68 countries covered by China’s One Belt One Road strategy “clearly present great opportunity”.

中國最大的投行中信證券的一名發(fā)言人表示，中國“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略所涵蓋的68個國家“明顯提供了很大機會”。

Citic pursues European and US opportunities through CLSA, the brokerage it bought from Crédit Agricole in 2013. CLSA pulled out of US equities in February because of challenging conditions, but is preparing to rebuild.

中信證券2013年從法國農(nóng)業(yè)信貸銀行(Crédit Agricole)手中收購了里昂證券(CLSA)，目前正通過這家券商在歐洲和美國發(fā)掘機會。今年2月，里昂證券因為處境艱難而關(guān)閉了美國股票業(yè)務(wù)，但目前正準備重整旗鼓。

“The US is a market [we are] considering beyond the current CLSA offering of Asian equity sales and trading,” the spokesperson says. The group “is looking at what licences are needed” to expand its business in the US. In Europe, CLSA is “looking at opportunities” in commercial real estate.

“美國是(我們)在當前里昂證券亞洲股票銷售與交易業(yè)務(wù)之外考慮的一個市場，”上述發(fā)言人說。里昂證券正在考察在美國擴張業(yè)務(wù)“需要哪些牌照”。在歐洲，里昂證券正在商業(yè)地產(chǎn)領(lǐng)域“考察機會”。

Chinese banks have had early success abroad, including Citic/CLSA’s role as joint global co-ordinator for a dollar bond issued by Indonesia’s MedcoEnergi. But competitors and even some executives say there are limits to how far Chinese banks can go despite their scale — they include the world’s top four lenders by assets.

中國投行已在海外取得了初步成功，比如中信證券/里昂證券在印尼的MedcoEnergi發(fā)行一筆美元債券時擔任了全球聯(lián)席協(xié)調(diào)人。但它們的競爭對手、甚至一些業(yè)內(nèi)高管都表示，中國機構(gòu)在國際化方面存在局限，盡管它們規(guī)模龐大。

“Chinese brokerages need to carefully consider their entry points for foreign expansion,” says a Shanghai-based professional services executive who works with China investment banks. “Europe and America already have a large batch of top-grade brokerages and investment banks. There’s no shortage.”

“中國券商需要認真考慮它們進行海外擴張的切入點，”上海一名與多家中國投行有合作的專業(yè)服務(wù)高管說，“歐洲和美國已經(jīng)有一大批頂級券商和投行。根本就不缺好的機構(gòu)。”

One executive based in Hong Kong admits that his Chinese bank “can’t be global”. The executive says: “We cannot compete anywhere except for Asia. And even in Asia, we are quite limited.”

一位駐香港高管承認，他所在的中資銀行“無法走向全球”。這位高管說：“除亞洲之外，我們在別的地方無力參與競爭。即便在亞洲，我們的業(yè)務(wù)也相當有限。”